President-elect Joe Biden’s $1.9 trillion economic relief proposal serves as the opening salvo in a legislative battle that could be prolonged by the go-big price tag and the inclusion of initiatives opposed by many Republicans.
Biden’s hand was bolstered by Friday’s release of U.S. retail sales data for December, which showed a third straight monthly decline as the pandemic sapped activity. The results indicated that the biggest part of the U.S. economy — consumer spending — took a step back last quarter.
The Honorable Eugene A. Ludwig, the 27th comptroller of the currency, is a business and civic leader and expert on banking, regulation, risk management and fiscal policy. Mr. Ludwig is managing partner of Canapi Ventures, a venture capital firm focused on investments in early to growth-stage fintech companies, and CEO of Ludwig Advisors, which counsels financial firms on critical matters. He is the founder and former CEO and chairman of Promontory Financial Group, where he was an IBM executive after the firm was acquired in 2016. He is also the founder and former CEO and chairman of Promontory Interfinancial Network (now IntraFi Network), an early fintech company with approximately 3,000 bank members. Under his leadership, the Promontory family of companies became synonymous with excellence in compliance, risk management and financial services innovation.
In 2019, Mr. Ludwig founded the Ludwig Institute for Shared Economic Prosperity, or LISEP, a nonprofit organization dedicated to improving the economic well-being of middle- and lower-income Americans. Its research includes new economic indicators for unemployment, earnings and cost of living. LISEP's statistics aim to provide policymakers and the public a more transparent view into the economic situation of all Americans as compared with traditional metrics. He co-founded the Carol and Gene Ludwig Family Foundation, which provides grants to organizations that accelerate medical and scientific discovery in neurodegenerative diseases and enable access to educational and economic opportunity for young people.
Mr. Ludwig was previously vice chairman and senior control officer of Bankers Trust New York Corp., then the fifth largest U.S. banking organization. He was instrumental in steering the firm through its landmark merger with Deutsche Bank.
As comptroller from 1993 to 1998, Mr. Ludwig served as the Clinton administration's chief banking regulator and point person on the policy response to the credit crunch of the early 1990s. He fashioned an 11-point plan that was instrumental in ending the crunch and helping banks begin to lend again and fulfill their role of supporting the economy. He modernized and revised the bank regulatory framework, leading a multi-agency effort to overhaul the Community Reinvestment Act. Under his purview, lending to low- and moderate-income Americans increased tenfold, as did national bank investments in community development corporations. He brought the first fair-lending case in the nation and over the course of his leadership, 27 cases in all, resulting in tens of millions of dollars in fines against violators.
While he was comptroller, Mr. Ludwig served as chairman of the Federal Financial Institutions Examination Council, a member of the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision, a director of the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation and chairman of the Neighborhood Reinvestment Corporation.
Mr. Ludwig was previously a partner at Covington & Burling, specializing in banking law. He has been a guest lecturer at multiple colleges and universities, including Yale and Harvard's law and business schools and Georgetown's International Law Institute.
Given his unique perspective as a regulator, lawyer, banker, business leader and trusted advisor to leading financial institutions, he is a sought-after thought leader. His pieces have been published in The Financial Times, The New York Times, The Atlantic, The Wall Street Journal, The Washington Post, Politico, Democracy Journal, American Banker, Time, Newsweek, Bloomberg, and on CNBC.com. His book, "The Vanishing American Dream," was published in September 2020.
Gene was born in Brooklyn, New York, and raised in York, Pennsylvania. He graduated magna cum laude from Haverford College and received a scholarship to Oxford University, where he earned a Master of Arts degree as a Keasbey Fellow. He earned a J.D. from Yale University, where he was editor of the Yale Law Journal and chairman of Yale Legislative Services.
Ira S. Rosenbloom is chief operating executive of Optimum Strategies, which improves the performance, profitability and succession options of small and midsized accounting practices across the Mid-Atlantic region.
“It’s not hard to see that we’re in a once-in-several-generations economic crisis,” Biden said Thursday night in unveiling his plan. “We have to act and we have to act now.”
The package has elements that would likely appeal to enough moderate Republicans to gain favor in the Senate — including a $400 billion effort to contain the coronavirus and speed the economy’s reopening, as well as $1,400 in additional direct stimulus payments.
Other parts are set to spur partisan warfare, including Biden’s proposals to more than double the federal minimum wage to $15 an hour, provide large-scale aid for state governments and offer higher unemployment benefits through September.
Negotiations could end up producing a smaller bipartisan package in the coming weeks, followed by a larger budget bill later in the year with Democratic priorities. Biden said he plans to unveil a second major package, aimed at longer-term economic rebuilding, at a joint session of Congress next month.
Republican Senator Marco Rubio of Florida kicked off calls for breaking the relief plan into pieces, tweeting that since Biden served in the Senate for more than 35 years “he knows the plan he outlined tonight can’t pass ‘quickly.’” Rubio called for proceeding with the $1,400 stimulus checks first.
While it’s possible Democrats might find ways to get the bulk of the package through the Senate with just majority support, “it looks more likely that the need to find bipartisan support might constrain the size of the package,” Goldman Sachs Group Inc. analyst Alec Phillips wrote in a note to clients. Still, Goldman boosted its forecast for near-term fiscal stimulus to $1.1 trillion from the $750 billion it had predicted before Biden’s roll-out.
Biden has several advantages in the struggle, including an ability to bypass Senate Republicans on some of the items using a special tool called budget reconciliation.
Enjoying unified Democratic control of Congress, Biden will also have the White House bully pulpit to put pressure on Congress to act. He has offered his plan as a way for the nation to come together to provide relief to impoverished Americans after the unprecedented mob violence in the Capitol last week, and amid the record spike in deaths from the pandemic.
“Unity is not a pie-in-the-sky dream, it is a practical step to getting things done,” Biden said Thursday. “The very health of our nation is at stake.”
The looming trial of outgoing President Donald Trump is set to prolong the partisan tensions of recent weeks. Unless incoming Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer and Republican leader Mitch McConnell strike agreement on procedures, it could prevent a floor vote on Biden’s cabinet nominations and legislation for weeks, though it wouldn’t delay committee work.
If Biden can’t get a deal on the whole bill, provisions such as stimulus checks and a $400-per-week boost to unemployment insurance could be put into a budget bill and passed with just 50 votes. There is a debate about whether the minimum wage could also be raised that way.
The incoming president is a veteran of dealing with McConnell, who may be willing to horse-trade for his priorities like COVID-19 liability protections for employers or an extension of business tax breaks.
Many economists are anticipating a robust period of growth in the U.S. once vaccinations get the virus under control and normal commerce resumes, but a rough road remains. The drop in retail sales last month came alongside the first decline in monthly payrolls since April. Unemployment remained mired at 6.7 percent.
Things could worsen in the coming months. Some extra support measures for small businesses and the unemployed passed by Congress in December run out in March, and a federal eviction moratorium expires at the end of January.
“Given the urgency of the current crisis and the desire to achieve passage in the administration’s first 100 days, we expect a narrower package to ultimately emerge — in the vicinity of $1 trillion,” said Andrew Husby, an economist with Bloomberg Economics. “That figure could be enough to push economic growth above 5 percent this year, compared with our current baseline of 3.5 percent.”
The U.S. Chamber of Commerce said in a statement Thursday it “welcomes the introduction of President-elect Biden’s American Rescue Plan,” and singled out praise for the vaccination focus, while omitting comment on the minimum-wage increase.
Kevin Brady, the top Republican on the House Ways and Means Committee, said the package was bad for businesses. “Special interests and liberals are cheering. The jobless and Main Street are left shaking their heads.”
But leading Democrats praised the plan.
Schumer and House Speaker Nancy Pelosi pledged in a statement to work quickly to put “Biden’s vision into legislation that will pass both chambers and be signed into law.”
Congressional Democrats will have their own requests. Incoming Senate Finance Committee Chairman Ron Wyden indicated he wants the plan tweaked to tie unemployment benefits to unemployment rates. “I look forward to taking the lead on a proposal that puts a stop to needlessly lurching from crisis to crisis, and gives jobless workers the certainty that they will be able to buy groceries and make rent,” he said in a statement.
Major lift
The bill would dedicate $350 billion for state and local governments, well beyond the $160 billion for such funding included in a bipartisan compromise that never made it into the December package.
Biden is also seeking to boost refundable tax credits for those with low-income and children while substantially expanding paid family and medical leave.
All of this will be a major lift for Congress to complete by the mid-March expiration of expanded unemployment benefits for gig workers and the long-term jobless, which has created a benefits cliff.
The new administration is under pressure not to allow a repeat of the eight-month standoff that held up the last round of economic relief.
One advantage: the departure of a volatile Trump, who changed his positions frequently in the talks and ultimately sat on the sidelines after losing the November election — only to threaten a veto of the passed bill at the last minute.
--With assistance from Mario Parker and Christopher Condon