U.S. states saw their tax revenue drop by about $31 billion, or 6 percent, from March through August, compared to the same period a year earlier, as the pandemic triggered economic shutdowns across the country, according to data from 44 states compiled by the Urban Institute.
The scale of the drop appears smaller than expected, relative to the depth of the economic contraction, and comes after several states have reported that their revenue didn’t decline as much as anticipated despite business shutdowns and increased unemployment. In August, when much of the country was reopening, state revenue climbed about 1.1 percent from a year earlier, the Urban Institute found.
R. Dale Hall, FSA, MAAA, CERA, CFA is Managing Director of Research for the Society of Actuaries Research Institute (SOA). In his role, Dale is responsible for managing research projects and experience studies across the SOA's wide variety of actuarial practice areas and markets and coordinating strategic research partnerships. Additionally, Dale hosts the SOA's Research Insights Podcast and has appeared on behalf of the SOA in a variety of media outlets including NPR, C-SPAN and National Geographic.
Prior to joining the SOA in 2013, Dale spent over 20 years in the US insurance industry, primarily as Chief Actuary for the Life/Health companies of COUNTRY Financial and as an adjunct professor in the actuarial science program at Illinois State University.
Maghnus Mareneck is co-CEO of Cosmos Labs, a provider of Layer 1 blockchain infrastructure.
The tax figures come as Republicans in Washington balk at extending aid to states and cities to help cover budget deficits that are expected to continue as the coronavirus weighs on the economy. Experts say that states’ financial outlooks could worsen as the effects of the stimulus bill fade and high unemployment reduces tax bills next year.
The August increase should be viewed with caution since income-tax deadlines were pushed back to July, which could have resulted in some revenue being processed later, according to Lucy Dadayan, senior research associate with the Urban-Brookings Tax Policy Center at the Urban Institute. Personal income-tax collections, which rose 3.8 percent in August, were in some cases supported by backlogged unemployment insurance benefits subject to withholding tax, Dadayan said.
Between March and August, tax revenues fell 6.4 percent year over year, with 36 states reporting declines over that period, the report said. Between March and August, eight states, including Washington and Georgia, reported growth in tax revenue.
“Due to the shifting in timing of tax receipts this past year, it is crucial to view August year-over-year revenue gains and fiscal year to date data with caution,” Dadayan said in the report.