U.S. states saw their tax revenue drop by about $31 billion, or 6 percent, from March through August, compared to the same period a year earlier, as the pandemic triggered economic shutdowns across the country, according to data from 44 states compiled by the Urban Institute.
The scale of the drop appears smaller than expected, relative to the depth of the economic contraction, and comes after several states have reported that their revenue didn’t decline as much as anticipated despite business shutdowns and increased unemployment. In August, when much of the country was reopening, state revenue climbed about 1.1 percent from a year earlier, the Urban Institute found.
Paul Dumas is the Chief Human Resources officer at Duly Health and Care, one of the nation's largest networks of independent physicians, with more than 25 years of HR experience.
Darryl Wegner is a managing director in PKF O'Connor Davies' Forensic, Litigation and Valuation practice. Prior to joining PKF O'Connor Davies, he served as a special agent with the Federal Bureau of Investigation for 21 years where he conducted and led complex, multi-jurisdictional investigations involving anti-money laundering, financial and accounting fraud, securities fraud, insider trading, health care fraud, anti-bribery and anti-corruption, criminal antitrust, national security, counter threat finance and sanctions. He has extensive experience working with federal, state, local and international law enforcement and regulatory agencies. He began his FBI career in the Boston Field Office, investigating terrorism and white-collar crime while also serving as a crisis negotiator. He held several positions at FBI headquarters in Washington, D.C., including as the national leader of the bureau's Foreign Corrupt Practices Act, kleptocracy and antitrust programs, as one of the FBI's deputy chief human capital officers and led efforts to stand up a multidisciplinary nation state focused mission center. In addition to Boston and D.C., he was assigned to the FBI's Houston Field Office where he directed all white-collar crime investigations in southeast Texas. He started his professional career as an engineer in the automotive industry. After attending law school, he practiced as a corporate attorney for an international law firm in New York.
Gerald McMahon is a principal at W1 Global Inc. He has over 20 years of experience in the intelligence, national security and law enforcement communities. As the senior supervisory intelligence analyst for FBI Boston, he led one of the FBI's largest field intelligence programs comprising analysts, linguists and data specialists. He led teams, and interagency task forces covering the criminal, counterterrorism, counterintelligence and cyber programs. He has extensive experience managing crises and special events. In the FBI's Counterterrorism Division, McMahon advanced international terrorism investigations as an operations specialist, collaborating with domestic and international partners. As a tactical specialist on FBI Boston's Joint Terrorism Task Force, he conducted communications, network, and threat analysis. As a strategic analyst, McMahon authored analyses of current and emerging trends, with a focus on emerging technologies. McMahon is the recipient of two Office of the Director of National Intelligence Meritorious Unit Citation awards for his contributions to the 2006 US/UK Aviation Threat Task Force, and the 2013 Boston Marathon Bombing team. He was a Recanati-Kaplan Fellow with the Harvard Kennedy School of Government's Intelligence Project, where his research focused on the use of AI in intelligence analysis.
The tax figures come as Republicans in Washington balk at extending aid to states and cities to help cover budget deficits that are expected to continue as the coronavirus weighs on the economy. Experts say that states’ financial outlooks could worsen as the effects of the stimulus bill fade and high unemployment reduces tax bills next year.
The August increase should be viewed with caution since income-tax deadlines were pushed back to July, which could have resulted in some revenue being processed later, according to Lucy Dadayan, senior research associate with the Urban-Brookings Tax Policy Center at the Urban Institute. Personal income-tax collections, which rose 3.8 percent in August, were in some cases supported by backlogged unemployment insurance benefits subject to withholding tax, Dadayan said.
Between March and August, tax revenues fell 6.4 percent year over year, with 36 states reporting declines over that period, the report said. Between March and August, eight states, including Washington and Georgia, reported growth in tax revenue.
“Due to the shifting in timing of tax receipts this past year, it is crucial to view August year-over-year revenue gains and fiscal year to date data with caution,” Dadayan said in the report.