When the U.S. Congress passed its omnibus spending and COVID relief bill last month, plenty of people noted that it had a surprising amount for environmentalists to celebrate. Among the topline climate provisions: significant limits on a potent greenhouse gas found in refrigerants, new funds for wind and solar development, and an extension of the 45Q tax credit, which gives companies a tax break for capturing carbon.
There’s no doubt carbon capture is an industry in need of a jump start. If the world is going to meet its goal to keep temperature rise under 2° Celsius compared to preindustrial levels, everyone from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change to the International Energy Agency agrees the world must capture and store much more carbon than we currently do. According to the IEA, we probably need to capture between 10 percent and 20 percent of the roughly 35 billion metric tons of carbon we produce annually if we want to prevent the worst effects of climate change.
Justin Lie is CEO of CashShield.
Sandy Steier is chief executive officer at 1010data.
Christopher Condo serves Application Development & Delivery (AD&D) Professionals. He is part of Forrester's AD&D coverage of DevOps tool chains, focusing on continuous integration (CI) and continuous delivery (CD) as well as software development strategies for enabling those strategies.
Previous Work Experience
Prior to his current role as an analyst, Chris was the engineering manager for the enterprise web applications team for Altran North America, where he oversaw and led the development of enterprise applications in the medical device and automated warehousing industry. Chris led a team of 10 software engineers, developed proposals, led estimation efforts, led resourcing efforts (including offshore), and also pitched in as an individual contributor. Chris has firsthand experience of developing software using agile practices and helping clients migrate to CI and CD methodologies as well as migrating to the cloud.
Prior to Altran, Chris was a senior development engineer at Microsoft for 13-plus years, working in the SaaS space starting with the Microsoft bCentral suite of online eCommerce tools targeted at small to medium businesses. Chris went on to lead software development efforts for the Office Live product suite, developing CRM and eCommerce platforms for Microsoft's growing online customer base. With Office 365, in addition to feature development, Chris worked on early tool chains that enabled global configuration and secure cloud deployments prior to their mainstream existence on the Azure platform. He also performed research and development on components to limit the impact of DOS attacks.
Before Microsoft, Chris held senior software engineering roles at FASTech, M/A-Com, and Digital Equipment Corp.
Education
Chris graduated from UMass Lowell with a B.S. in computer science. Chris is an active member of UMass Lowell Computer Science Industry Advisory Board.
Currently the world captures about 40 million tons a year — a mere tenth of 1 percent of our total annual emissions. The global carbon capture industry is so small, in fact, that the U.S., which has just a dozen commercial facilities working, is its undisputed leader.
There are many reasons why carbon capture hasn’t taken off, but the primary one is that it’s expensive, and for a long time there was no incentive for big emitters such as oil refineries or cement makers to invest in making the technology profitable. In theory, that changed in 2018, when Congress greatly expanded the 45Q tax credit to allow companies to deduct as much as $50 (up from $20) per metric ton of carbon captured and stored permanently underground.
But the expansion came with a catch: It applied only to projects that had begun construction by 2023.
Carbon capture projects are very complicated. According to the Carbon Capture Coalition (CCC), it takes about five years on average just to get permitting to begin construction.
You see the problem. In the two years since 45Q was expanded — with great expectations that it would inspire lots of new projects — none have launched. Brad Crabtree, director of CCC, said several dozen are in the development stage, but many of these are now at risk of being abandoned since COVID has depressed the oil and gas market.
So, Congress stepped in again. Not only did it extend the tax credit out to 2025, the funding bill also added about $2 billion to fund six projects to demonstrate real world operability of innovative new carbon capture technologies. Significantly, two of those are reserved for steel and cement plants, as opposed to utilities, where previous investments have led to big failures. Currently there’s only one steel plant in the world with carbon capture, in Abu Dhabi, and the first cement factory with carbon capture is set to be built in Norway.
What can taxpayers realistically hope to get from their investment? Crabtree said that it will be a good thing if roughly 30 new projects, nearly triple the country’s current capacity, become operational. While that won’t capture nearly enough carbon in the short run, it might be enough to nurture a struggling industry, much the way tax credits in the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009 helped accelerate wind and solar.
“The whole point of the credit is to prove the technology works and costs can be lowered so a virtuous circle of investing and building can begin,” Crabtree said. “We can then ramp up in 2035."