Will COVID stimulus be the breakthrough carbon capture has been waiting for?

The relief bill includes an extension of the 45Q tax credit, which gives companies a tax break for capturing carbon..

When the U.S. Congress passed its omnibus spending and COVID relief bill last month, plenty of people noted that it had a surprising amount for environmentalists to celebrate. Among the topline climate provisions: significant limits on a potent greenhouse gas found in refrigerants, new funds for wind and solar development, and an extension of the 45Q tax credit, which gives companies a tax break for capturing carbon.

There’s no doubt carbon capture is an industry in need of a jump start. If the world is going to meet its goal to keep temperature rise under 2° Celsius compared to preindustrial levels, everyone from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change to the International Energy Agency agrees the world must capture and store much more carbon than we currently do. According to the IEA, we probably need to capture between 10 percent and 20 percent of the roughly 35 billion metric tons of carbon we produce annually if we want to prevent the worst effects of climate change.

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ProtectWise CTO and co-founder Gene Stevens drives the company’s technology vision and architecture. He is a serial entrepreneur with more than 20 years of experience in software development, cloud computing, security-as-a-service, and distributed systems. Prior to founding ProtectWise, Gene was the Founder and CTO at TagLabs, a mobile tagging company. He was previously a Principal Software Engineer at McAfee, Cloud & Content Security, developing the company’s email, web security and data loss prevention products. He joined McAfee upon its acquisition of MX Logic where he was Senior Software Engineer. Gene also held a lead engineering role with GDX, developing secure email and file transfer services based in Tokyo. Early in his career, Gene developed financial forecasting, market analysis and service capacity planning software for Hewitt Associates (Aon). Gene is an expert and a leader on scalability, high throughput and low latency services, and distributed systems design. He is a frequent speaker at security and technology conferences and is covered by the media. Gene is also a member of the Board of Directors for the Open Information Security Foundation in support of open-source security technologies.

Charlene Glidden is vice president of planning and technology strategy at Colonial Life, a leading insurance provider. Glidden is responsible for ensuring the company business strategy is realized through sound business and technology investments made through effective planning and technology execution. She is also accountable for providing data and analytics services within the company. She joined Colonial Life in 2016 after a 20-year career with Unum serving in information technology, shared services and business leadership roles at the company’s Portland, Maine and Chattanooga, Tenn., locations.

Glidden previously served on the board of the Susan Curtis Foundation in Maine, which serves economically disadvantaged children to increase college graduation rates; and Maine Robotics, which provides Maine youth and teachers with mentored activities within the science, technology, engineering and math fields. Glidden holds a master of business administration degree from Boston University.

Mark Bregman is chief technology officer at NetApp.

Currently the world captures about 40 million tons a year — a mere tenth of 1 percent of our total annual emissions. The global carbon capture industry is so small, in fact, that the U.S., which has just a dozen commercial facilities working, is its undisputed leader.

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Luke Sharrett/Bloomberg

There are many reasons why carbon capture hasn’t taken off, but the primary one is that it’s expensive, and for a long time there was no incentive for big emitters such as oil refineries or cement makers to invest in making the technology profitable. In theory, that changed in 2018, when Congress greatly expanded the 45Q tax credit to allow companies to deduct as much as $50 (up from $20) per metric ton of carbon captured and stored permanently underground.

But the expansion came with a catch: It applied only to projects that had begun construction by 2023.

Carbon capture projects are very complicated. According to the Carbon Capture Coalition (CCC), it takes about five years on average just to get permitting to begin construction.

You see the problem. In the two years since 45Q was expanded — with great expectations that it would inspire lots of new projects — none have launched. Brad Crabtree, director of CCC, said several dozen are in the development stage, but many of these are now at risk of being abandoned since COVID has depressed the oil and gas market.

So, Congress stepped in again. Not only did it extend the tax credit out to 2025, the funding bill also added about $2 billion to fund six projects to demonstrate real world operability of innovative new carbon capture technologies. Significantly, two of those are reserved for steel and cement plants, as opposed to utilities, where previous investments have led to big failures. Currently there’s only one steel plant in the world with carbon capture, in Abu Dhabi, and the first cement factory with carbon capture is set to be built in Norway.

What can taxpayers realistically hope to get from their investment? Crabtree said that it will be a good thing if roughly 30 new projects, nearly triple the country’s current capacity, become operational. While that won’t capture nearly enough carbon in the short run, it might be enough to nurture a struggling industry, much the way tax credits in the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009 helped accelerate wind and solar.

“The whole point of the credit is to prove the technology works and costs can be lowered so a virtuous circle of investing and building can begin,” Crabtree said. “We can then ramp up in 2035."