When the U.S. Congress passed its omnibus spending and COVID relief bill last month, plenty of people noted that it had a surprising amount for environmentalists to celebrate. Among the topline climate provisions: significant limits on a potent greenhouse gas found in refrigerants, new funds for wind and solar development, and an extension of the 45Q tax credit, which gives companies a tax break for capturing carbon.
There’s no doubt carbon capture is an industry in need of a jump start. If the world is going to meet its goal to keep temperature rise under 2° Celsius compared to preindustrial levels, everyone from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change to the International Energy Agency agrees the world must capture and store much more carbon than we currently do. According to the IEA, we probably need to capture between 10 percent and 20 percent of the roughly 35 billion metric tons of carbon we produce annually if we want to prevent the worst effects of climate change.
William Glasgall is Director of Public Finance at The Volcker Alliance in New York. A four-decade veteran financial journalist, Bill brings to the nonpartisan, nonprofit organization a deep knowledge of state and local government finances and fiscal policies and leads the Truth in State Budgeting and Financial Reporting project that is building on recommendations made in 2013 by the State Budget Crisis Task Force headed by Volcker Alliance Chairman Paul Volcker and former New York Lieutenant Governor Richard Ravitch. Bill is also senior adviser to the Ravitch Fiscal Reporting Program at the CUNY Graduate School of Journalism in New York.Bill came to the Alliance from Bloomberg News, where he directed U.S. local-government coverage as Managing Editor for States and Municipalities that received awards from the National Press Club Foundation and other organizations. He also served as co-host of Bloomberg’s Global Week Ahead Podcast, as well as Editor-at-Large and Enterprise Editor, and has been a featured speaker at conferences held by Bloomberg, the Bond Buyer, Governing Magazine, Investment Advisor, and TD Ameritrade. Before joining Bloomberg, Bill spent almost 20 years at BusinessWeek Magazine as Senior Writer and Senior Editor, winning two Overseas Press Club prizes for international reporting and heading the magazine’s personal finance and lifestyle sections. He was also a regular commentator and host on the PBS-TV show “This Week in Business,” Editorial Director of the Investment Advisor Group, vice-president at Standard & Poor’s Corp., and a reporter and editor at the Associated Press and the Star-Ledger in Newark, New Jersey.Bill is a Trustee of the Overseas Press Club Foundation and former member of the Board of Overseers of the Knight-Bagehot Fellowship Program in Economics and Business Journalism at Columbia University, where he was a Fellow. He is a graduate of Boston University and lives in New Jersey.
Ajay Vij is senior vice president and industry head of financial services for Infosys.
Paul Atkins is the founder and chief executive of Patomak Global Partners. He served as commissioner on the Securities and Exchange Commission from 2002 to 2008 and was a member of the Congressional Oversight Panel for the Troubled Asset Relief Program from 2009 to 2010. He was a partner of PricewaterhouseCoopers and its predecessor firm, Coopers & Lybrand, and began his career as a lawyer with Davis Polk & Wardwell.
Currently the world captures about 40 million tons a year — a mere tenth of 1 percent of our total annual emissions. The global carbon capture industry is so small, in fact, that the U.S., which has just a dozen commercial facilities working, is its undisputed leader.
There are many reasons why carbon capture hasn’t taken off, but the primary one is that it’s expensive, and for a long time there was no incentive for big emitters such as oil refineries or cement makers to invest in making the technology profitable. In theory, that changed in 2018, when Congress greatly expanded the 45Q tax credit to allow companies to deduct as much as $50 (up from $20) per metric ton of carbon captured and stored permanently underground.
But the expansion came with a catch: It applied only to projects that had begun construction by 2023.
Carbon capture projects are very complicated. According to the Carbon Capture Coalition (CCC), it takes about five years on average just to get permitting to begin construction.
You see the problem. In the two years since 45Q was expanded — with great expectations that it would inspire lots of new projects — none have launched. Brad Crabtree, director of CCC, said several dozen are in the development stage, but many of these are now at risk of being abandoned since COVID has depressed the oil and gas market.
So, Congress stepped in again. Not only did it extend the tax credit out to 2025, the funding bill also added about $2 billion to fund six projects to demonstrate real world operability of innovative new carbon capture technologies. Significantly, two of those are reserved for steel and cement plants, as opposed to utilities, where previous investments have led to big failures. Currently there’s only one steel plant in the world with carbon capture, in Abu Dhabi, and the first cement factory with carbon capture is set to be built in Norway.
What can taxpayers realistically hope to get from their investment? Crabtree said that it will be a good thing if roughly 30 new projects, nearly triple the country’s current capacity, become operational. While that won’t capture nearly enough carbon in the short run, it might be enough to nurture a struggling industry, much the way tax credits in the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009 helped accelerate wind and solar.
“The whole point of the credit is to prove the technology works and costs can be lowered so a virtuous circle of investing and building can begin,” Crabtree said. “We can then ramp up in 2035."