Will COVID stimulus be the breakthrough carbon capture has been waiting for?

The relief bill includes an extension of the 45Q tax credit, which gives companies a tax break for capturing carbon..

When the U.S. Congress passed its omnibus spending and COVID relief bill last month, plenty of people noted that it had a surprising amount for environmentalists to celebrate. Among the topline climate provisions: significant limits on a potent greenhouse gas found in refrigerants, new funds for wind and solar development, and an extension of the 45Q tax credit, which gives companies a tax break for capturing carbon.

There’s no doubt carbon capture is an industry in need of a jump start. If the world is going to meet its goal to keep temperature rise under 2° Celsius compared to preindustrial levels, everyone from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change to the International Energy Agency agrees the world must capture and store much more carbon than we currently do. According to the IEA, we probably need to capture between 10 percent and 20 percent of the roughly 35 billion metric tons of carbon we produce annually if we want to prevent the worst effects of climate change.

CORONAVIRUS IMPACT: ADDITIONAL COVERAGE
Maria Vullo

Maria T. Vullo was confirmed by the New York State Senate as Superintendent Financial Services on June 15, 2016. She was nominated for the position by Governor Andrew Cuomo. As Superintendent, she is responsible for protecting consumers and markets in New York State from fraud and financial crises, as well as reforming the regulation of financial services to keep pace with the industry’s rapid evolution.

Prior to joining DFS, Ms. Vullo was a litigation partner at Paul, Weiss, Rifkind, Wharton & Garrison LLP, where she led civil, criminal, and regulatory investigations before courts and governmental authorities across the country. Ms. Vullo also served as Executive Deputy Attorney General for Economic Justice Division in the Office of the New York State Attorney General, under then New York State Attorney General Cuomo. There she oversaw the Bureaus of Investor Protection, Antitrust, Real Estate Finance, Consumer Frauds and Internet, leading investigations across New York State to protect investors and consumers from fraud.

Over the course of her career, Ms. Vullo’s specific legal experience has included litigations and investigations involving the financial services sectors and fraud, real estate, health care, insurance, tax, consumer protection, bankruptcy, antitrust, and constitutional law.

An accomplished trial lawyer, Ms. Vullo has also argued before the U.S. Supreme Court, the U.S. Courts of Appeals for the Second, Ninth, and Tenth Circuits, and the New York State Appellate Division.

Ms. Vullo is a recognized leader in protecting women’s rights, including representing women raped by soldiers during the 1992-1995 Bosnian War – a case in which she secured a $745 million jury verdict for the plaintiffs. Her pro bono work also includes securing a $100 million jury verdict representing abortion providers whose lives had been threatened by an online “hit list” and numerous amicus curiae briefs to the U.S. Supreme Court in significant civil rights cases.

Ms. Vullo was twice nominated by the New York State Commission on Judicial Nomination as a candidate for Associate Judge of the Court of Appeals. She has been named a “New York Super Lawyer” by Super Lawyers Magazine and has been included in numerous leading lawyer lists published by the National Law Journal and other leading publications.

Ms. Vullo recently received the New York Women Making a Difference Award from Eleanor’s Legacy, the Humanitarian of the Year Award from the Interfaith Nutrition Network, and the Distinguished Corporate Citizen Award from A Better Balance, among many other awards and professional recognitions.

Ms. Vullo earned her J.D. from New York University School of Law, an M.P.A. from the New York University Wagner Graduate School of Public Service, and a B.A. from the College of Mount Saint Vincent. She clerked for the Hon. John A. MacKenzie, U.S. District Court, Eastern District of Virginia, following law school prior to entering private practice.

McGuire is the director of health and benefit insurance operations for the Paychex Insurance Agency, a wholly owned subsidiary of Paychex, Inc.

Tom Beale is chief technology officer at Corax.

Currently the world captures about 40 million tons a year — a mere tenth of 1 percent of our total annual emissions. The global carbon capture industry is so small, in fact, that the U.S., which has just a dozen commercial facilities working, is its undisputed leader.

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Luke Sharrett/Bloomberg

There are many reasons why carbon capture hasn’t taken off, but the primary one is that it’s expensive, and for a long time there was no incentive for big emitters such as oil refineries or cement makers to invest in making the technology profitable. In theory, that changed in 2018, when Congress greatly expanded the 45Q tax credit to allow companies to deduct as much as $50 (up from $20) per metric ton of carbon captured and stored permanently underground.

But the expansion came with a catch: It applied only to projects that had begun construction by 2023.

Carbon capture projects are very complicated. According to the Carbon Capture Coalition (CCC), it takes about five years on average just to get permitting to begin construction.

You see the problem. In the two years since 45Q was expanded — with great expectations that it would inspire lots of new projects — none have launched. Brad Crabtree, director of CCC, said several dozen are in the development stage, but many of these are now at risk of being abandoned since COVID has depressed the oil and gas market.

So, Congress stepped in again. Not only did it extend the tax credit out to 2025, the funding bill also added about $2 billion to fund six projects to demonstrate real world operability of innovative new carbon capture technologies. Significantly, two of those are reserved for steel and cement plants, as opposed to utilities, where previous investments have led to big failures. Currently there’s only one steel plant in the world with carbon capture, in Abu Dhabi, and the first cement factory with carbon capture is set to be built in Norway.

What can taxpayers realistically hope to get from their investment? Crabtree said that it will be a good thing if roughly 30 new projects, nearly triple the country’s current capacity, become operational. While that won’t capture nearly enough carbon in the short run, it might be enough to nurture a struggling industry, much the way tax credits in the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009 helped accelerate wind and solar.

“The whole point of the credit is to prove the technology works and costs can be lowered so a virtuous circle of investing and building can begin,” Crabtree said. “We can then ramp up in 2035."