When the U.S. Congress passed its omnibus spending and COVID relief bill last month, plenty of people noted that it had a surprising amount for environmentalists to celebrate. Among the topline climate provisions: significant limits on a potent greenhouse gas found in refrigerants, new funds for wind and solar development, and an extension of the 45Q tax credit, which gives companies a tax break for capturing carbon.
There’s no doubt carbon capture is an industry in need of a jump start. If the world is going to meet its goal to keep temperature rise under 2° Celsius compared to preindustrial levels, everyone from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change to the International Energy Agency agrees the world must capture and store much more carbon than we currently do. According to the IEA, we probably need to capture between 10 percent and 20 percent of the roughly 35 billion metric tons of carbon we produce annually if we want to prevent the worst effects of climate change.
Darryl Wegner is a managing director in PKF O'Connor Davies' Forensic, Litigation and Valuation practice. Prior to joining PKF O'Connor Davies, he served as a special agent with the Federal Bureau of Investigation for 21 years where he conducted and led complex, multi-jurisdictional investigations involving anti-money laundering, financial and accounting fraud, securities fraud, insider trading, health care fraud, anti-bribery and anti-corruption, criminal antitrust, national security, counter threat finance and sanctions. He has extensive experience working with federal, state, local and international law enforcement and regulatory agencies. He began his FBI career in the Boston Field Office, investigating terrorism and white-collar crime while also serving as a crisis negotiator. He held several positions at FBI headquarters in Washington, D.C., including as the national leader of the bureau's Foreign Corrupt Practices Act, kleptocracy and antitrust programs, as one of the FBI's deputy chief human capital officers and led efforts to stand up a multidisciplinary nation state focused mission center. In addition to Boston and D.C., he was assigned to the FBI's Houston Field Office where he directed all white-collar crime investigations in southeast Texas. He started his professional career as an engineer in the automotive industry. After attending law school, he practiced as a corporate attorney for an international law firm in New York.
Gerald McMahon is a principal at W1 Global Inc. He has over 20 years of experience in the intelligence, national security and law enforcement communities. As the senior supervisory intelligence analyst for FBI Boston, he led one of the FBI's largest field intelligence programs comprising analysts, linguists and data specialists. He led teams, and interagency task forces covering the criminal, counterterrorism, counterintelligence and cyber programs. He has extensive experience managing crises and special events. In the FBI's Counterterrorism Division, McMahon advanced international terrorism investigations as an operations specialist, collaborating with domestic and international partners. As a tactical specialist on FBI Boston's Joint Terrorism Task Force, he conducted communications, network, and threat analysis. As a strategic analyst, McMahon authored analyses of current and emerging trends, with a focus on emerging technologies. McMahon is the recipient of two Office of the Director of National Intelligence Meritorious Unit Citation awards for his contributions to the 2006 US/UK Aviation Threat Task Force, and the 2013 Boston Marathon Bombing team. He was a Recanati-Kaplan Fellow with the Harvard Kennedy School of Government's Intelligence Project, where his research focused on the use of AI in intelligence analysis.
Currently the world captures about 40 million tons a year — a mere tenth of 1 percent of our total annual emissions. The global carbon capture industry is so small, in fact, that the U.S., which has just a dozen commercial facilities working, is its undisputed leader.
There are many reasons why carbon capture hasn’t taken off, but the primary one is that it’s expensive, and for a long time there was no incentive for big emitters such as oil refineries or cement makers to invest in making the technology profitable. In theory, that changed in 2018, when Congress greatly expanded the 45Q tax credit to allow companies to deduct as much as $50 (up from $20) per metric ton of carbon captured and stored permanently underground.
But the expansion came with a catch: It applied only to projects that had begun construction by 2023.
Carbon capture projects are very complicated. According to the Carbon Capture Coalition (CCC), it takes about five years on average just to get permitting to begin construction.
You see the problem. In the two years since 45Q was expanded — with great expectations that it would inspire lots of new projects — none have launched. Brad Crabtree, director of CCC, said several dozen are in the development stage, but many of these are now at risk of being abandoned since COVID has depressed the oil and gas market.
So, Congress stepped in again. Not only did it extend the tax credit out to 2025, the funding bill also added about $2 billion to fund six projects to demonstrate real world operability of innovative new carbon capture technologies. Significantly, two of those are reserved for steel and cement plants, as opposed to utilities, where previous investments have led to big failures. Currently there’s only one steel plant in the world with carbon capture, in Abu Dhabi, and the first cement factory with carbon capture is set to be built in Norway.
What can taxpayers realistically hope to get from their investment? Crabtree said that it will be a good thing if roughly 30 new projects, nearly triple the country’s current capacity, become operational. While that won’t capture nearly enough carbon in the short run, it might be enough to nurture a struggling industry, much the way tax credits in the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009 helped accelerate wind and solar.
“The whole point of the credit is to prove the technology works and costs can be lowered so a virtuous circle of investing and building can begin,” Crabtree said. “We can then ramp up in 2035."