When the U.S. Congress passed its omnibus spending and COVID relief bill last month, plenty of people noted that it had a surprising amount for environmentalists to celebrate. Among the topline climate provisions: significant limits on a potent greenhouse gas found in refrigerants, new funds for wind and solar development, and an extension of the 45Q tax credit, which gives companies a tax break for capturing carbon.
There’s no doubt carbon capture is an industry in need of a jump start. If the world is going to meet its goal to keep temperature rise under 2° Celsius compared to preindustrial levels, everyone from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change to the International Energy Agency agrees the world must capture and store much more carbon than we currently do. According to the IEA, we probably need to capture between 10 percent and 20 percent of the roughly 35 billion metric tons of carbon we produce annually if we want to prevent the worst effects of climate change.
Todd Zywicki is George Mason University Foundation Professor of Law at Antonin Scalia Law School and affiliated scholar at the International Center for Law & Economics.
Chris Olson co-founded The Media Trust with a goal to transform the internet experience by creating better digital ecosystems to govern assets, connect partners and enable digital risk management. Chris has more than 15 years of experience leading high tech and ad technology start-ups and managing international software development, product and sales teams. Prior to The Media Trust, Chris created an Internet-based transaction system to research, buy and sell media for TV, radio, cable, and online channels. He started his career managing equity and fixed income electronic trading desks for Salomon Brothers, Citibank and Commerzbank AG.
Srividya (Sri) serves Customer Insights Professionals. She leads a team of analysts focusing on helping businesses collect, manage, analyze, and apply customer data to win, serve, and retain customers. Specifically, her team focuses on advanced analytics, predictive analytics, customer analytics, business intelligence, and artificial intelligence.
Previously, Sri was a senior analyst on the Customer Insights team, focusing on customer analytics best practices and technologies, services, and analytical applications that help firms convert customer data into meaningful insights. Sri continues to help marketing clients address their customer analytics needs, map out customer intelligence requirements and strategies, and navigate the analytics technology and services landscape.
Previous Work Experience
Sri has over 10 years' experience in marketing and customer analytics, product management, marketing management, and business analysis on both the client and agency side. Prior to Forrester, she managed digital media measurement and analytics for multiple clients across verticals at Allen & Gerritsen, a Boston-based advertising agency. Previously, she worked at Cognizant, a global provider of information technology, consulting, and business process outsourcing services managing marketing communications programs. Prior to Cognizant, Sri worked at Sify Technologies — an India-based Internet service provider — managing the consumer broadband product portfolio including planning, executing, and measuring multichannel marketing campaigns.
Education
Srividya holds an M.S. in integrated marketing communications with a specialization in customer and marketing analytics from Northwestern University, Chicago, and an MBA from India.
Currently the world captures about 40 million tons a year — a mere tenth of 1 percent of our total annual emissions. The global carbon capture industry is so small, in fact, that the U.S., which has just a dozen commercial facilities working, is its undisputed leader.
There are many reasons why carbon capture hasn’t taken off, but the primary one is that it’s expensive, and for a long time there was no incentive for big emitters such as oil refineries or cement makers to invest in making the technology profitable. In theory, that changed in 2018, when Congress greatly expanded the 45Q tax credit to allow companies to deduct as much as $50 (up from $20) per metric ton of carbon captured and stored permanently underground.
But the expansion came with a catch: It applied only to projects that had begun construction by 2023.
Carbon capture projects are very complicated. According to the Carbon Capture Coalition (CCC), it takes about five years on average just to get permitting to begin construction.
You see the problem. In the two years since 45Q was expanded — with great expectations that it would inspire lots of new projects — none have launched. Brad Crabtree, director of CCC, said several dozen are in the development stage, but many of these are now at risk of being abandoned since COVID has depressed the oil and gas market.
So, Congress stepped in again. Not only did it extend the tax credit out to 2025, the funding bill also added about $2 billion to fund six projects to demonstrate real world operability of innovative new carbon capture technologies. Significantly, two of those are reserved for steel and cement plants, as opposed to utilities, where previous investments have led to big failures. Currently there’s only one steel plant in the world with carbon capture, in Abu Dhabi, and the first cement factory with carbon capture is set to be built in Norway.
What can taxpayers realistically hope to get from their investment? Crabtree said that it will be a good thing if roughly 30 new projects, nearly triple the country’s current capacity, become operational. While that won’t capture nearly enough carbon in the short run, it might be enough to nurture a struggling industry, much the way tax credits in the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009 helped accelerate wind and solar.
“The whole point of the credit is to prove the technology works and costs can be lowered so a virtuous circle of investing and building can begin,” Crabtree said. “We can then ramp up in 2035."