Global confidence improved significantly in the third quarter of the year among accountants, despite fears of a prolonged economic recession amid the novel coronavirus pandemic, according to a survey of members of the Association of Chartered Certified Accountants and the Institute of Management Accountants.
The ACCA and IMA’s latest "Global Economic Conditions Survey," released Tuesday, indicated a global recovery through the second half of the year after an unprecedented collapse in economic activity during the first half. However, while there are signs of an economic expansion late this year, the poll also showed increasing expectations that significant economic recovery will be pushed into 2021.
Bill joined Plymouth Rock in 2016 and is in charge of our property insurance business and reinsurance programs. Bill has over 30 years of experience in the insurance industry. Bill was formerly President of Bankers Insurance, winning a Celent Model Insurer award in 2014 for simplifying homeowners insurance shopping. He also founded a startup with a new approach to flood insurance and has held senior positions at Farmers Insurance, Progressive and Travelers. Bill is a graduate of Stanford University, with a degree in Survey Data Research. He is a frequent speaker and author on insurance issues and has served on the Institute for Business and Home Safety and other safety organizations. He is an active board member of nonprofits that combat poverty and aid those with intellectual and developmental disabilities. He is an avid sailor, skier and trombone player.
Bryan Davis serves as Executive Vice President and Head of VIU by HUB, a digital brokerage
platform backed and developed by HUB International, the largest personal lines broker in the U.S. He is
responsible for the vision and strategy, profit & loss, investment priorities and supporting a network of
alliance partners.
With more than 20 years of industry experience, Davis has led transformational projects and driven growth in personal and commercial lines, product management and pricing, sales and business
development, underwriting and operations.
An industry leader in product, sales, and digital innovation, Davis previously held leadership positions with USAA, Nationwide, and AIG. Davis is a graduate of Wofford College and also has an MBA. He's also credentialed as a ChFC & CPCU and is also a former Member of the Board of Directors of the American Red Cross of San Antonio.
Evan Daniels serves on the advisory board of Monitaur, an AI/ML governance software company committed to working with the insurance industry and regulators towards the responsible and effective integration of AI/ML. Formerly Director of the Arizona Department of Insurance and Financial Institutions and served as the 2022 Co-Vice Chair of the NAIC Committee on Innovation, Cybersecurity and Technology, which oversees the NAIC's Big Data and Artificial Intelligence workstreams, Evan also is Counsel at Mitchell Sandler LLC, a boutique financial services law firm, where he advises insurance companies, insurtechs, fintechs, and financial institutions on regulatory matters. For more information on Monitaur, please visit www.monitaur.ai, and follow the company on LinkedIn.
Activity indicators such as orders, capital spending and employment all rebounded somewhat from the low points seen in the Q2 survey. The global orders balance recovered by nine points in the third quarter, signalling a modest turnaround. Other indicators, such as concern that customers and suppliers could go out of business, also improved a bit from the extreme levels seen in the second quarter.
“The nature and prolonged duration of the COVID-19 shock means that it is likely to result in permanent changes to the structure and potential growth rates of economies,” said IMA vice president of research and policy Raef Lawson in a statement. “Higher private sector savings may be one outcome: households and companies limit consumption and investment respectively as they remain cautious in the face of extreme uncertainty. This suggests that the public sector may have to run significant fiscal deficits for some time in order to support overall demand. For now, at least mounting public sector debt can be sustained since interest rates are exceptionally low.”
Confidence in Q3 recovered strongly to a three-and-a-half-year high as the deep pessimism caused by lockdowns lifted in most regions. North America appeared to be the most optimistic region surveyed, while South Asia had the largest proportion of respondents not anticipating recovery until next year.
In North America, the orders balance recovered significantly in the third quarter, according to the report, but remains at a record low level,
The report found that confidence in the third quarter recovered strongly to a 3 1/2-year high as the deep gloom caused by lockdowns lifted in most regions; North America is the most optimistic, while South Asia has the greatest proportion of respondents not expecting recovery until next year.
In North America, the report found that the order balance recovered significantly in the third quarter but remains at a record low level, with the exception of the previous quarter. In addition, the increase in confidence this quarter was the biggest quarter-to-quarter increase in the history of the survey, reflecting the turnaround in the economic outlook between June and September.
Overall, results for the North American region are consistent with a reasonably strong recovery in the second half of the year. The second quarter saw some record quarterly falls in gross domestic product, including 9.1 percent in the U.S. The current forecast for quarter on quarter GDP in the third quarter is around 7 percent in the U.S.
Expectations of substantial economic recovery have shifted toward later in 2021 over the past three months, including above 50 percent in North America. Responses to this question indicate the realization that the economic damage caused by the pandemic and the restrictions associated with it are likely to persist well into 2021.
The survey indicated a clear regional pattern, with the strongest access to finance seen in the developed markets of North America and Europe, and the weakest in emerging markets. This did not change between the June and September surveys.
The momentum of the recovery is already showing signs of fading, however. “More generally the continued prevalence of the virus means that social distancing rules and other containment measures will persist for the foreseeable future,” said Warner Johnston, head of ACCA USA, in a statement. “This will adversely affect consumer demand in particular areas. Most economic shocks do not result in permanent changes in economic behavior. But the COVID-19 shock is likely to be different: it already has lasted for the first three quarters of 2020 and will do so well into 2021. This, and the nature and scale of the economic impact, means that permanent changes to the structure of economies are inevitable.”
