Employment increased by 245,000 jobs in November, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Friday, marking the slowest month of job growth since the spring and far less than the 610,000 jobs added in October and the 711,000 added in September. Job losses occurred in accounting and bookkeeping and other sectors amid the ravages of the COVID-19 pandemic.
Nevertheless the unemployment rate dipped two-tenths of a percentage point to 6.7 percent. While the 245,000 jobs would have been a good sign of growth last year, they represent a continued slowing of the pace of job growth after millions of job losses at the start of the year. The main job gains in November happened in the transportation and warehousing, professional and business services, and health care sectors. Employment declined in government and retail trade. While professional and business services gained, the accounting and bookkeeping area lost 2,400 jobs. Employment in professional and business services increased by 60,000, with about half the gain occurring in temporary help services, where 32,000 jobs were added. Professional and business services employment has declined 1.1 million since February.
“With the rise in cases and lack of stimulus, we expected that the hiring would begin to slow,” said Phil Noftsinger, executive vice president of CBIZ, a Top 100 Firm. “That’s unfortunate because we probably had an opportunity to arrest that a bit if we had acted sooner in terms of stimulus. Generally in the professional services category you saw the unemployment rate tick down. It’s just under 6 percent now. That sector is usually pretty strong and is usually in better shape than the overall group.”
Keith Smith is CEO of Payability.
Fouad Khalil is head of compliance at SecurityScorecard, Inc.
As Strategic Research Actuary for RGA’s Global Research and Data Analytics (GRDA) team, Julianne Callaway researches emerging areas of interest to the insurance industry. Her insights on wellness, wearable technology, genetics, and other strategic research initiatives are shared with clients in presentations, white papers and articles.
Julianne joined RGA in 2013 as an Assistant Actuary in GRDA, where she oversaw research development for the department. Later Julianne was part of RGAx, the wholly-owned innovation incubator subsidiary of Reinsurance Group of America, Incorporated, for two years where she developed economic models for business concepts and market intelligence in support of innovative business initiatives.
Prior to joining RGA, Julianne spent nine years with Towers Watson, where she was a Senior Actuarial Analyst, responsible for loss reserving for several lines of business, establishing funding amounts for self-insurance funds, developing predictive models, and developing methods to estimate asbestos liabilities for corporations and insurers. She began her actuarial career at American Family Insurance, where she priced business lines insurance and was responsible for rate adequacy in several states.
Julianne has Bachelor of Science (B.S.) and Master of Arts (M.A.) degrees, both in economics, from the University of Missouri – Columbia. She is a Fellow in the Society of Actuaries (FSA), an Associate in the Casualty Actuarial Society (ACAS), and Member of the American Academy of Actuaries (MAAA). A prolific author, she has written and published several articles and white papers on a broad range of insurance topics. She is also a frequent speaker at industry conferences, and is currently a member of the Society of Actuaries’ General Insurance Research
The number of long-term unemployed (those who have been jobless for 27 weeks or more) increased in November by 385,000 to 3.9 million, accounting for 36.9 percent of the total number of unemployed, while the number of people who have been jobless 15 to 26 weeks declined by 760,000 to 1.9 million. The labor force participation rate edged down to 61.5 percent in November, or 1.9 percentage points below its February level. Average hourly earnings increased 9 cents to $29.58.
Noftsinger finds the renewal of stimulus talks in Washington an encouraging sign of progress. “It’s not ideal, but I think we’re starting to see the labor numbers begin to peak in terms of getting back to where we were in February in the context of a vaccine, the distribution of said vaccine, the reopening of the economy, and certainly any stimulus that we could find ourselves getting between now and those things happening,” he said.
CBIZ released its own monthly CBIZ Small Business Employment Index on Friday, reporting a 1.06 percent seasonally adjusted decrease for November, despite the job growth that usually occurs during the holiday shopping season. From a geographic standpoint, the West was the only U.S. region to see a hiring increase at 1.36 percent, while the Northeast saw a decrease of 1.79 percent, the Central region declined 1.43 percent and Southeast slipped 0.67 percent. Hiring declined in states that opened on or before May 15 by 1.73 percent and states that opened afterward by 0.97 percent.
Several industries experienced hiring declines, including technology, life sciences, construction, accommodation and food services, and real estate. On the plus side, hiring increased in arts and entertainment, which had experienced depressed trends since the spring. Noftsinger wasn’t sure how to explain the job growth in that sector. Hiring grew among nonprofits as well.
“There were some surprises in our metric,” said Noftsinger. “I would point to accomodation and food services, which had a strong bounce as restaurants and bars opened. That decline is indicative of some of the closures taking place in larger metropolitan areas. We’re starting to see that play out in those numbers. I would expect that to accelerate as we go into December and the cases continue to rise and the closures continue to happen.”
