Employment increased by 245,000 jobs in November, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Friday, marking the slowest month of job growth since the spring and far less than the 610,000 jobs added in October and the 711,000 added in September. Job losses occurred in accounting and bookkeeping and other sectors amid the ravages of the COVID-19 pandemic.
Nevertheless the unemployment rate dipped two-tenths of a percentage point to 6.7 percent. While the 245,000 jobs would have been a good sign of growth last year, they represent a continued slowing of the pace of job growth after millions of job losses at the start of the year. The main job gains in November happened in the transportation and warehousing, professional and business services, and health care sectors. Employment declined in government and retail trade. While professional and business services gained, the accounting and bookkeeping area lost 2,400 jobs. Employment in professional and business services increased by 60,000, with about half the gain occurring in temporary help services, where 32,000 jobs were added. Professional and business services employment has declined 1.1 million since February.
“With the rise in cases and lack of stimulus, we expected that the hiring would begin to slow,” said Phil Noftsinger, executive vice president of CBIZ, a Top 100 Firm. “That’s unfortunate because we probably had an opportunity to arrest that a bit if we had acted sooner in terms of stimulus. Generally in the professional services category you saw the unemployment rate tick down. It’s just under 6 percent now. That sector is usually pretty strong and is usually in better shape than the overall group.”
Robert Mazur is the New York Times best-selling author of "The Infiltrator," a memoir about his undercover life, much of which was spent acting as a conduit between ruthless drug barons and corrupt legitimate appearing senior executives that cleaned billions in blood- stained money through otherwise respectable international banks and businesses. For years, in the eyes of organized crime leaders he was a highly successful, mob-connected money launderer who helped manage their illicit fortunes. His clients, some of the most famous and deadly drug cartel bosses, issued a $500,000 contract on his life when arrests were made around the world and he was revealed to be a highly trained U.S. federal undercover agent. After completing a highly decorated 27-year career as a federal agent in three U.S. agencies, Mazur is now the president of KYC Solutions Inc., a firm that provides speaking, expert witness and consulting services to companies worldwide. More information about Mazur, his book and the film based on his life can be found at https://www.robertmazur.com/. The views expressed are his own.
Josh Jones is a manager and client-facing consultant at aspirant Consulting, LLC --- an Atlanta, GA-based consulting firm which specializes in data analytics. With more than a decade of industry experience as a consultant, developer, and team manager; he is proficient in developing solutions that transform data into business-relevant insights. Josh works primary in Tableau, relational databases, and teaching best practices between the two. For more information, please visit, www.aspirent.com. He can be reached at josh.jones@aspirent.com.
Craig Roth is research vice president at Gartner Inc. focused on digital workplace trends, messaging, products, segmentation and best practices. This includes cloud office suites, collaboration tools, content services, and how they are dependent on digital dexterity and digital business trends. He researches how knowledge workers get their jobs done today and how they are likely to get them done in the future (the future of work). He speaks to a wide range of general managers, technology CEOs, product marketing, and product managers, service providers, and IT leaders on how to capture the productivity that new ways of work have to offer.
Mr. Roth is the creator of Gartner's Digital Dexterity Index, a scoring model for showing where workers ready for new ways of working are more likely to be found by country, industry, age grouping, and company size. This index helps vendors prioritize sales and marketing efforts and helps companies and agencies to assess their workforce's openness to changing how they work against benchmarks. He has also engaged in special research projects around Enterprise Attention Management (a response to information overload) and how AI and automation will impact the future of work.
The number of long-term unemployed (those who have been jobless for 27 weeks or more) increased in November by 385,000 to 3.9 million, accounting for 36.9 percent of the total number of unemployed, while the number of people who have been jobless 15 to 26 weeks declined by 760,000 to 1.9 million. The labor force participation rate edged down to 61.5 percent in November, or 1.9 percentage points below its February level. Average hourly earnings increased 9 cents to $29.58.
Noftsinger finds the renewal of stimulus talks in Washington an encouraging sign of progress. “It’s not ideal, but I think we’re starting to see the labor numbers begin to peak in terms of getting back to where we were in February in the context of a vaccine, the distribution of said vaccine, the reopening of the economy, and certainly any stimulus that we could find ourselves getting between now and those things happening,” he said.
CBIZ released its own monthly CBIZ Small Business Employment Index on Friday, reporting a 1.06 percent seasonally adjusted decrease for November, despite the job growth that usually occurs during the holiday shopping season. From a geographic standpoint, the West was the only U.S. region to see a hiring increase at 1.36 percent, while the Northeast saw a decrease of 1.79 percent, the Central region declined 1.43 percent and Southeast slipped 0.67 percent. Hiring declined in states that opened on or before May 15 by 1.73 percent and states that opened afterward by 0.97 percent.
Several industries experienced hiring declines, including technology, life sciences, construction, accommodation and food services, and real estate. On the plus side, hiring increased in arts and entertainment, which had experienced depressed trends since the spring. Noftsinger wasn’t sure how to explain the job growth in that sector. Hiring grew among nonprofits as well.
“There were some surprises in our metric,” said Noftsinger. “I would point to accomodation and food services, which had a strong bounce as restaurants and bars opened. That decline is indicative of some of the closures taking place in larger metropolitan areas. We’re starting to see that play out in those numbers. I would expect that to accelerate as we go into December and the cases continue to rise and the closures continue to happen.”
