Payrolls fell sharply in December, as the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Friday that employment declined by 140,000 jobs amid the continuing economic fallout from the novel coronavirus pandemic. Nevertheless, the accounting and bookkeeping sector added 2,300 jobs last month.
The unemployment rate remained at 6.7 percent despite the job cuts, which were the steepest since last April. The BLS revised upward the figures for both October and November, with the October figures going up by 44,000, from a gain of 610,000 jobs to a gain of 654,000. The change for November was revised upward by 91,000 jobs, from a gain of 245,000 jobs to a gain of 336,000. With those revisions, employment in October and November combined was 135,000 more than previously reported. Therefore, the loss of 140,000 jobs in December seems even more dramatic, although those figures are likely to be revised as well.
Peter Keating is an investigative financial journalist who has been reporting complex financial stories for more than 25 years. His work has been published recently by GQ, Inc., National Geographic, New York and Politico.
Keating was a founding member of ESPN’s Investigative Unit, where his longform projects included pioneering work that exposed for the first time how the NFL dealt with brain injuries. At ESPN, Keating was a frequent commentator on Outside the Lines and public speaker, making six appearances at the Sloan Sports Analytics Conference, and was part of teams that won three National Magazine Awards. His work has also earned 10 Journalism Awards from the New York Press Club, as well as Investigative Reporters and Editors, Deadline Club and National Headliner Awards.
Keating has written four national columns: “Numbers” and “The Biz” for ESPN the Magazine (1999-2019), “The New Retirement” for Smart Money (2006-2010) and “The Advocate” for Money (1999-2000). He was the senior writer for politics at George during the 2000 presidential campaign.
Keating lives in Montclair, New Jersey, with his wife Karen, their daughters Ellie and Samantha, and their dog, Otis.
Betsy Branagan leads the reserving and claim analytics function at Xceedance. She has over 30 years of experience in traditional actuarial roles of reserving and pricing as well as expertise in leadership, strategy, data management and organizational change.
Prior to joining Xceedance, Betsy held the position as the Appointed Actuary for Plymouth Rock Assurance Company. She managed the loss reserving and pricing functions, led the integration of data from acquired entities, and implemented new reserving tools and processes. Betsy has held leadership roles at Hanover Insurance Group, Arbella Mutual Insurance Company, AIPSO, and on a number of industry committees.
Betsy is a Fellow of the Casualty Actuarial Society and a Member of the American Academy of Actuaries. She holds a master’s degree in business administration from Indiana State University’s Kelley School of Business and a bachelor’s degree in Mathematics from Clark University.
Ross Delston is a lawyer, expert witness and former banking regulator specializing in AML matters.
In December, job losses in leisure and hospitality and in private education were partially offset by gains in professional and business services, retail trade, and construction. Average hourly earnings increased 23 cents to $29.81. The leisure and hospitality industry lost 498,000 jobs, with three-quarters of the declines in food services and drinking places, which lost 372,000 jobs. Since February, employment in leisure and hospitality is down by 3.9 million, or 23.2 percent.
Separately, CBIZ, a Top 100 Firm based in Cleveland, released its own monthly Small Business Employment Index, which showed a slight increase in small business hiring of 0.32 percent in December. Hiring declined a bit in the Central U.S. by 0.15 percent but rose in the Northeast by 1.18 percent, the Southeast by 1 percent and the West by 0.44 percent. There were increases for states that opened up from lockdowns on or before May 15 of 0.97 percent and states that opened up from lockdowns after May 15 of 0.23 percent.
While some industries tracked by CBIZ increased their hiring, growth did not occur across the board. Hiring increased in healthcare, financial services, real estate, nonprofits and retail trade, yet decreased in technology and life sciences, transportation, and accommodation and food services. The negative trend in accommodation and food services could be due to renewed COVID-19 restrictions.
“Obviously we are in a bit of a transitional period as the cases of coronavirus surge back up, and you’ve got significant population centers starting to lock down again,” said CBIZ executive vice president Philip Noftsinger. “In terms of the labor market, you may be bending that arc back toward either a declining labor market or a reduction. Ironically the CBIZ number went in the other direction. I don’t have a perfect answer for that, other than there are small businesses all over the country that are significant employment centers that are in larger areas that may be under lockdown, so perhaps that’s got a little bit to do with it.”
The incoming Biden administration will be inheriting multiple challenges with the economy, the pandemic and a sharply divided populace. “I’ll be interested to see as the transfer of power occurs what is our immediate response and how do we chart a different course to try to solve these problems for the country,” said Noftsinger.
Jobs for accounting professionals still seem to be in demand, despite some declines last year in the BLS data. “Professional services tend to be a bit more resilient if you’ve got a beta factor for the overall labor market,” said Noftsinger. “They have a lower beta factor.”
