Payrolls fell sharply in December, as the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Friday that employment declined by 140,000 jobs amid the continuing economic fallout from the novel coronavirus pandemic. Nevertheless, the accounting and bookkeeping sector added 2,300 jobs last month.
The unemployment rate remained at 6.7 percent despite the job cuts, which were the steepest since last April. The BLS revised upward the figures for both October and November, with the October figures going up by 44,000, from a gain of 610,000 jobs to a gain of 654,000. The change for November was revised upward by 91,000 jobs, from a gain of 245,000 jobs to a gain of 336,000. With those revisions, employment in October and November combined was 135,000 more than previously reported. Therefore, the loss of 140,000 jobs in December seems even more dramatic, although those figures are likely to be revised as well.
Darryl Wegner is a managing director in PKF O'Connor Davies' Forensic, Litigation and Valuation practice. Prior to joining PKF O'Connor Davies, he served as a special agent with the Federal Bureau of Investigation for 21 years where he conducted and led complex, multi-jurisdictional investigations involving anti-money laundering, financial and accounting fraud, securities fraud, insider trading, health care fraud, anti-bribery and anti-corruption, criminal antitrust, national security, counter threat finance and sanctions. He has extensive experience working with federal, state, local and international law enforcement and regulatory agencies. He began his FBI career in the Boston Field Office, investigating terrorism and white-collar crime while also serving as a crisis negotiator. He held several positions at FBI headquarters in Washington, D.C., including as the national leader of the bureau's Foreign Corrupt Practices Act, kleptocracy and antitrust programs, as one of the FBI's deputy chief human capital officers and led efforts to stand up a multidisciplinary nation state focused mission center. In addition to Boston and D.C., he was assigned to the FBI's Houston Field Office where he directed all white-collar crime investigations in southeast Texas. He started his professional career as an engineer in the automotive industry. After attending law school, he practiced as a corporate attorney for an international law firm in New York.
Gerald McMahon is a principal at W1 Global Inc. He has over 20 years of experience in the intelligence, national security and law enforcement communities. As the senior supervisory intelligence analyst for FBI Boston, he led one of the FBI's largest field intelligence programs comprising analysts, linguists and data specialists. He led teams, and interagency task forces covering the criminal, counterterrorism, counterintelligence and cyber programs. He has extensive experience managing crises and special events. In the FBI's Counterterrorism Division, McMahon advanced international terrorism investigations as an operations specialist, collaborating with domestic and international partners. As a tactical specialist on FBI Boston's Joint Terrorism Task Force, he conducted communications, network, and threat analysis. As a strategic analyst, McMahon authored analyses of current and emerging trends, with a focus on emerging technologies. McMahon is the recipient of two Office of the Director of National Intelligence Meritorious Unit Citation awards for his contributions to the 2006 US/UK Aviation Threat Task Force, and the 2013 Boston Marathon Bombing team. He was a Recanati-Kaplan Fellow with the Harvard Kennedy School of Government's Intelligence Project, where his research focused on the use of AI in intelligence analysis.
In December, job losses in leisure and hospitality and in private education were partially offset by gains in professional and business services, retail trade, and construction. Average hourly earnings increased 23 cents to $29.81. The leisure and hospitality industry lost 498,000 jobs, with three-quarters of the declines in food services and drinking places, which lost 372,000 jobs. Since February, employment in leisure and hospitality is down by 3.9 million, or 23.2 percent.
Separately, CBIZ, a Top 100 Firm based in Cleveland, released its own monthly Small Business Employment Index, which showed a slight increase in small business hiring of 0.32 percent in December. Hiring declined a bit in the Central U.S. by 0.15 percent but rose in the Northeast by 1.18 percent, the Southeast by 1 percent and the West by 0.44 percent. There were increases for states that opened up from lockdowns on or before May 15 of 0.97 percent and states that opened up from lockdowns after May 15 of 0.23 percent.
While some industries tracked by CBIZ increased their hiring, growth did not occur across the board. Hiring increased in healthcare, financial services, real estate, nonprofits and retail trade, yet decreased in technology and life sciences, transportation, and accommodation and food services. The negative trend in accommodation and food services could be due to renewed COVID-19 restrictions.
“Obviously we are in a bit of a transitional period as the cases of coronavirus surge back up, and you’ve got significant population centers starting to lock down again,” said CBIZ executive vice president Philip Noftsinger. “In terms of the labor market, you may be bending that arc back toward either a declining labor market or a reduction. Ironically the CBIZ number went in the other direction. I don’t have a perfect answer for that, other than there are small businesses all over the country that are significant employment centers that are in larger areas that may be under lockdown, so perhaps that’s got a little bit to do with it.”
The incoming Biden administration will be inheriting multiple challenges with the economy, the pandemic and a sharply divided populace. “I’ll be interested to see as the transfer of power occurs what is our immediate response and how do we chart a different course to try to solve these problems for the country,” said Noftsinger.
Jobs for accounting professionals still seem to be in demand, despite some declines last year in the BLS data. “Professional services tend to be a bit more resilient if you’ve got a beta factor for the overall labor market,” said Noftsinger. “They have a lower beta factor.”
