Growth in jobs and wages at small businesses slowed in October, according to payroll giant Paychex, although job growth in the South increased for the second month in a row, and wages are set to go up in Florida after voters passed a minimum wage ballot initiative in Tuesday’s election. Another payroll service provider, Gusto, also reported a slowdown in employment growth at small businesses Thursday.
The latest Paychex | IHS Markit Small Business Employment Watch, released Tuesday, indicated a moderation in its small-business hiring index compared to September, slipping 0.13 percent nationally to 94.32. Hourly earnings growth was 2.88 percent in October, slowing to the kind of pre-pandemic levels last seen in early 2020. Weekly hours worked remained positive, up 0.38 percent from last year, although both one-month and three-month annualized growth posted negative rates in October.
Martin Lowy, a former banking attorney, is the author of the books “High Rollers: Inside the S&L Debacle” and “Debt Spiral: How Credit Failed Capitalism.”
The Honorable Eugene A. Ludwig, the 27th comptroller of the currency, is a business and civic leader and expert on banking, regulation, risk management and fiscal policy. Mr. Ludwig is managing partner of Canapi Ventures, a venture capital firm focused on investments in early to growth-stage fintech companies, and CEO of Ludwig Advisors, which counsels financial firms on critical matters. He is the founder and former CEO and chairman of Promontory Financial Group, where he was an IBM executive after the firm was acquired in 2016. He is also the founder and former CEO and chairman of Promontory Interfinancial Network (now IntraFi Network), an early fintech company with approximately 3,000 bank members. Under his leadership, the Promontory family of companies became synonymous with excellence in compliance, risk management and financial services innovation.
In 2019, Mr. Ludwig founded the Ludwig Institute for Shared Economic Prosperity, or LISEP, a nonprofit organization dedicated to improving the economic well-being of middle- and lower-income Americans. Its research includes new economic indicators for unemployment, earnings and cost of living. LISEP's statistics aim to provide policymakers and the public a more transparent view into the economic situation of all Americans as compared with traditional metrics. He co-founded the Carol and Gene Ludwig Family Foundation, which provides grants to organizations that accelerate medical and scientific discovery in neurodegenerative diseases and enable access to educational and economic opportunity for young people.
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As comptroller from 1993 to 1998, Mr. Ludwig served as the Clinton administration's chief banking regulator and point person on the policy response to the credit crunch of the early 1990s. He fashioned an 11-point plan that was instrumental in ending the crunch and helping banks begin to lend again and fulfill their role of supporting the economy. He modernized and revised the bank regulatory framework, leading a multi-agency effort to overhaul the Community Reinvestment Act. Under his purview, lending to low- and moderate-income Americans increased tenfold, as did national bank investments in community development corporations. He brought the first fair-lending case in the nation and over the course of his leadership, 27 cases in all, resulting in tens of millions of dollars in fines against violators.
While he was comptroller, Mr. Ludwig served as chairman of the Federal Financial Institutions Examination Council, a member of the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision, a director of the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation and chairman of the Neighborhood Reinvestment Corporation.
Mr. Ludwig was previously a partner at Covington & Burling, specializing in banking law. He has been a guest lecturer at multiple colleges and universities, including Yale and Harvard's law and business schools and Georgetown's International Law Institute.
Given his unique perspective as a regulator, lawyer, banker, business leader and trusted advisor to leading financial institutions, he is a sought-after thought leader. His pieces have been published in The Financial Times, The New York Times, The Atlantic, The Wall Street Journal, The Washington Post, Politico, Democracy Journal, American Banker, Time, Newsweek, Bloomberg, and on CNBC.com. His book, "The Vanishing American Dream," was published in September 2020.
Gene was born in Brooklyn, New York, and raised in York, Pennsylvania. He graduated magna cum laude from Haverford College and received a scholarship to Oxford University, where he earned a Master of Arts degree as a Keasbey Fellow. He earned a J.D. from Yale University, where he was editor of the Yale Law Journal and chairman of Yale Legislative Services.
The South was still the top-ranked region for small-business hiring and has improved its pace of job growth for the second consecutive month. On the other hand, the West slowed 0.26 percent in October and 0.99 percent during the past quarter. The Northeast has ranked in first place among regions in terms of growth in weekly hours worked for the past six months.
The small-business job growth number grew nationally a bit, but has been relatively flat in recent months, according to Frank Fiorille, vice president of risk management, compliance, and data analytics at Paychex.
“We had a little bump up last month, and then this month it was down a little bit,” he said in an interview Thursday. “It’s very region-, city- and state-nuanced. For example this past month the Northeast was good. However, the West was the underperformer for the month. We saw some weakness in the West, which really brought the index down to that bottom level that we saw when COVID first hit. It came down to the same level that we had when the financial crisis hit, but it’s kind of holding in there.”
Florida and Texas were the top two states in October for small-business employment growth. Meanwhile, New Jersey, Massachusetts and Pennsylvania led the way in hourly earnings growth among the states. Hourly earnings growth was a strong 3.89 percent in the construction industry, and the sector led the way in employment growth as well in October. At the other end of the scale, employment growth in the leisure and hospitality industry was well below all other sectors, down 0.48 percent in October from September.
“We’re seeing the growth in wages flatten out a little bit and slow down,” said Fiorille. “Businesses are bringing back more employees, which typically are the ones that were furloughed or laid off, in the low-wage entry level, so if they come back in, that lowers the average hourly earnings number. I think that’s probably a positive thing.”
Some small businesses are even having trouble finding employees, according to the Federal Reserve’s latest “Beige Book.”
“It’s kind of like what it was before COVID,” said Fiorille. “That’s due to several reasons: not wanting to go back to work from a health perspective, and school issues with their children.”
To attract employees who are reluctant to return to work, some businesses are offering more scheduling flexibility. They may also need to start raising their wages, with Florida voters approving a ballot initiative Tuesday to raise the state’s minimum wage to $15 an hour, phasing it in over the next few years until 2026, up from $8.56.
“If you think about it, it’s a pretty big jump up,” said Fiorille. “It’s phased in over four or five years, but it’s still a pretty aggressive move for Florida to go right to $15. The thought is that probably a lot of states will copy that as things go on.”
Besides the uncertain results of the presidential election, he advises accountants to keep an eye out for other state developments, like the ballot initiative that passed in California allowing companies like Uber, Lyft and DoorDash to continue to pay their gig economy workers as independent contractors rather than as employees, but with some benefits.
“People are all focused on the presidential election and what’s happening in the Senate, but there was a lot of stuff that happened within various states,” said Fiorille.
Gusto data
Separately, another payroll provider, Gusto, released its own small business employment data for October on Thursday. It saw low growth for the fourth month in a row, growing only 1.4 percent in October, 1.1 percent in September, 1.0 percent in August, and 1.2 percent in July. In contrast to Paychex, Gusto found that rehiring of furloughed workers has largely stalled as business owners wait to see what winter has in store. For workers who have been furloughed at all since the pandemic began, only 36 percent have returned to work and 21 percent of those remain in limbo and are still furloughed.
Cities in the Southeast saw the strongest headcount growth in October, according to Gusto, with seven of the top 10 cities seeing the biggest growth located in the South. Memphis topped the list for two consecutive months in headcount growth with 4.53 percent in October and 3.54 percent in September.
Headcount growth in 2020 was 50 percent lower than in prior years. Headcount across all industries dropped precipitously this past spring, bottoming out at -5 percent in early April. By October, headcount had recovered to +5 percent above pre-COVID levels, but small businesses still haven’t made up for all the ground lost due to the pandemic. When Gusto looked at headcount growth in 2020 compared to expectations based on the prior three years of data, this year’s headcount was 50 percent behind where it should be.
