Small business job growth and hourly earnings declined slightly in November, according to payroll giant Paychex, amid signs of a slowdown in the economy as businesses continue to struggle with rising COVID-19 infections across the country.
Small business hiring fell 0.03 percent, while hourly earnings growth slowed for the fifth month in a row, from a peak of 3.29 percent in June to 2.76 percent in November, according to the Paychex | IHS Markit Small Business Employment Watch. The number of weekly hours worked also showed a decrease of 0.04 percent year over year.
Christopher Condo serves Application Development & Delivery (AD&D) Professionals. He is part of Forrester's AD&D coverage of DevOps tool chains, focusing on continuous integration (CI) and continuous delivery (CD) as well as software development strategies for enabling those strategies.
Previous Work Experience
Prior to his current role as an analyst, Chris was the engineering manager for the enterprise web applications team for Altran North America, where he oversaw and led the development of enterprise applications in the medical device and automated warehousing industry. Chris led a team of 10 software engineers, developed proposals, led estimation efforts, led resourcing efforts (including offshore), and also pitched in as an individual contributor. Chris has firsthand experience of developing software using agile practices and helping clients migrate to CI and CD methodologies as well as migrating to the cloud.
Prior to Altran, Chris was a senior development engineer at Microsoft for 13-plus years, working in the SaaS space starting with the Microsoft bCentral suite of online eCommerce tools targeted at small to medium businesses. Chris went on to lead software development efforts for the Office Live product suite, developing CRM and eCommerce platforms for Microsoft's growing online customer base. With Office 365, in addition to feature development, Chris worked on early tool chains that enabled global configuration and secure cloud deployments prior to their mainstream existence on the Azure platform. He also performed research and development on components to limit the impact of DOS attacks.
Before Microsoft, Chris held senior software engineering roles at FASTech, M/A-Com, and Digital Equipment Corp.
Education
Chris graduated from UMass Lowell with a B.S. in computer science. Chris is an active member of UMass Lowell Computer Science Industry Advisory Board.
Schechter is an associate attorney at Butterfield Schechter LLP in San Diego.
Mallon is Bersin’s chief storyteller. He engages directly with Bersin members and the market to bring the Bersin’s insights to life. As a 10-year veteran with the organization, and the leader of Bersin’s Research team for six years, he is one of Bersin’s most knowledgeable thought leaders in all areas of HR, talent, learning, and leadership. As a pivotal force behind Bersin’s maturity research for the past decade, he brings a unique, integrated perspective to helping organizations solve their most vexing workforce challenges – wisely and with systematic purpose. Before joining Bersin, Mallon led the consulting practice for a major LMS provider. Prior to that, he held learning and organization development-related positions with EarthLink, where he was responsible for overall learning strategy for its global call center organization. He holds a B.A. in English Literature from Emory University and an M.S. in Digital Media from the Georgia Institute of Technology with focuses on computer-aided distance learning and on storytelling in digital environments. This column first ran on the Bersin web site
“Nothing has been moving for a few months in all the key employment indicators we look at and watch,” said Frank Fiorille, vice president of risk management, compliance and data analytics at Paychex. “They really have stabilized. I actually thought the index was going to be a lot lower given the COVID spikes, so I was pleasantly surprised to see it just moderately declined by 0.03 percent from October, which is relatively flat.”
Paychex competitor ADP also reported a slowing in small business job growth on the ADP National Employment Report, with small businesses adding 110,000 jobs in November, compared to 146,000 in October. Overall, the private sector added 307,000 jobs across businesses of all sizes, according to ADP, but that was down from 404,000 in October.
“While November saw employment gains, the pace continues to slow,” said Ahu Yildirmaz, vice president and co-head of the ADP Research Institute, in a statement Wednesday. “Job growth remained positive across all industries and sizes.”
According to Paychex, the South remained the top-ranked region of the U.S. for employment growth, a full one point above the next highest region. The Northeast was the only region with weekly earnings growth above 3 percent. Texas has climbed one spot in the state rankings for each month for the past quarter, now ranking first among states in job growth.
Construction led the way among industries in terms of job growth for the seventh consecutive month. However, the leisure and hospitality industry lagged far behind with the weakest number on Paychex’s index for the past eight months. While leisure and hospitality ranked in first place among the sectors in terms of hourly earnings growth (increasing 4.15 percent), it was last in terms of weekly hours worked growth (declining 2.44 percent). Unlike other sectors, the financial activities sector didn’t experience a significant disruption in weekly hours worked as growth has been steadily positive and consistent during 2020.
With Congress again talking about passing a stimulus package before the end of the year and President-elect Joe Biden set to take office in January, he advises accountants to keep a close watch on the changes coming out of Washington.
“I guess the message would be that it’s not a time to take your eye off the ball,” said Fiorille. “Watch the stuff and be educated, because given COVID, given a new administration, new people coming into Congress, new leadership, there’s probably going to be more change with that.”
He is also seeing changes happening at the state level. “There’s a lot going on within state governments, whether it’s on the employment law front or minimum wage, or paid sick leave or unique taxes,” said Fiorille. “It seems like a lot of states are doing their own stuff. Be aware and be mindful of that.”
Earlier this week, the Government Accountability Office issued a reporton the federal response to COVID-19, including the challenges faced by the Internal Revenue Service and the Treasury Department in processing of employer tax credits, distributing Economic Impact Payments and in reaching individuals who may be eligible, but have not yet received an EIP, as well as the IRS’s implementation of the Presidential Memorandum on employee payroll tax deferral, and the IRS processing of amended individual and corporate income tax returns. The GAO recommended that the Treasury, in coordination with the IRS, should begin tracking and publicly reporting the number of individuals who were mailed an EIP notification letter and filed for and received an EIP, and use that information to inform ongoing outreach and communications efforts.
The report also found problems with the way the Department of Labor has been tracking unemployment statistics, in part due to delays in reporting by states that have been overwhelmed by unemployment claims. The GAO recommended that the Labor Department revise its weekly news releases to clarify that in the current unemployment environment, the numbers it reports for weeks of unemployment claimed don’t accurately estimate the number of unique individuals claiming benefits. The report also suggested the Labor Department should pursue options to report the actual number of distinct individuals claiming benefits, such as by collecting the data that’s already available from states.
“Clearly states are in various stages of how quickly they can get to them,” said Fiorille. “We kind of kid around that we’ve seen some job postings for COBOL programmers because some of these systems were designed in COBOL, so they’re not state of the art, to say the least. Depending on the state, you’ve seen delays and issues in the whole control function of that. Clearly you also have some fraud involved. You’re seeing more and more on that. Whenever you have this kind of chaos, like you’re reading about with the PPP program because they needed to get the money out quickly, they didn’t really have time to set up the walls and guardrails. It sounds like some of the numbers were overstated, which in some sense would be good that not as many people are on unemployment. In fact, the numbers that came out today were positive. The new UI numbers and the continuing claims were both down, but there’s still a lot of people hurting. It’s still not a good picture.”
