Small business job growth and hourly earnings declined slightly in November, according to payroll giant Paychex, amid signs of a slowdown in the economy as businesses continue to struggle with rising COVID-19 infections across the country.
Small business hiring fell 0.03 percent, while hourly earnings growth slowed for the fifth month in a row, from a peak of 3.29 percent in June to 2.76 percent in November, according to the Paychex | IHS Markit Small Business Employment Watch. The number of weekly hours worked also showed a decrease of 0.04 percent year over year.
Allan Koltin, CPA, CGMA, is the CEO of Koltin Consulting Group, a Chicago-based consulting firm that specializes in working with professional and financial services firms in the areas of practice growth, practice management, human capital, and mergers and acquisitions. A nationally recognized speaker and industry analyst, Allan has appeared on the CNN, WGN and Fox Television networks and has been quoted frequently in such media as the Wall Street Journal, New York Times, Washington Post, Chicago Tribune, Los Angeles Times, USA Today and New York Post, as well as Bloomberg News, BBC World Service, Business Week, Forbes and Reuters. He has also spoken nationally and internationally at hundreds of conferences including those held by the AICPA, international CPA associations and state CPA societies.For twelve consecutive years, Allan has been named by Accounting Today as one of the Top 100 Most Influential People in the accounting profession. Koltin was also voted one of the 10 Most Recommended Consultants, for the seventh straight year, in the “Annual Survey of Firms” conducted by INSIDE Public Accounting. In 2012, Allan was named by CPA Practice Advisor as one of the Top 25 Thought Leaders in the profession. He was one of the first inducted into the Accounting Marketing Hall of Fame by the Association for Accounting Marketing (AAM). He has also been a recipient of the NACVA Instructor of the Year Award and winner of the Journal of Accountancy Literacy Award. Previously he was recognized by the Illinois CPA Society with the Distinguished Service Award for outstanding service and commitment to the profession. Koltin is the author-editor of three books for professional services firms: CPA Firm Merger Strategies That Work, CPAs That Sell and the AICPA’s Marketing a Consulting Niche. He is a founding member of The Advisory Board, a think tank for the accounting profession, and has served on various advisory boards, including Outsource Partners International (OPI), the Association for Accounting Marketing (AAM), the National Association of Certified Valuation Analysts (NACVA) and H&R Block (HRB Business Services). Previously, Allan was the President and CEO of PDI, Global, Inc. which was the largest publisher of marketing newsletters for professional services firms. Allan originally sold PDI Global to H&R Block in 1998, buying it back in 2008, and then selling it again to Thomson Reuters in 2011. Prior to that, Allan was a Senior Partner in the Chicago-based accounting and consulting firm of FERS, where he served as the leader of the Investment Banking Group, as well as the Law Firm Consulting Group. At age 27, Allan had the distinction of being named the youngest partner in the history of the firm and was also a member of the firm’s Executive Committee. FERS was acquired by H&R Block in 1998. Allan attended both the University of Wisconsin – Madison and the University of Wisconsin – Milwaukee and received degrees in accounting and marketing. He lives in Chicago with his wife, Sharon, and his three children, Jack, Brian and Julia. His passion is facilitating retreats and providing coaching for firm leadership and partners. His specialties include strategy, governance, profitability, compensation, growth, human capital, and mergers and acquisitions.
Kate Risch Choi is a senior product manager for treasury and payment solutions at BMO Harris Bank.
Tom Hutton is managing partner for XL Innovate, the venture capital arm of XL Catlin. After working as a Consultant at McKinsey and Company, Tom served for ten years as the first CEO of Risk Management Solutions, a pioneer and global leader in providing risk modeling software, data and analytic services related to catastrophic risks to the insurance industry. His insurance career continued as CEO of White Mountains Re and board director of several insurance and reinsurance companies including XL Group, Safeco, Montpelier Re, Centre Cat, and Palomar Specialty.
In 2011, Tom founded New Energy Risk in partnership with XL Group. Tom served as CEO until the founding of XL Innovate in 2015, and currently serves as chairman. New Energy Risk addresses opportunities to apply insurance to support the development and financing of clean technology and renewable energy solutions and infrastructure, through an innovative form of insured technology performance.
Tom currently serves as a board director at several private and venture-backed companies including SoFi, a leading fintech company redefining consumer lending and financial services; Lemonade, a revolutionary personal lines insurance carrier; and Slice Labs, a provider of on-demand insurance in the sharing economy. Tom’s investments at XL Innovate also include Embroker, a tech driven commercial distribution company that is radically improving how mid-sized businesses buy and manage insurance coverage. Tom earned his BA in Economics and MS in Mechanical Engineering from Stanford University and his MBA from Harvard Business School. Tom is involved in several non-profit organizations with an emphasis on secondary school education and environmental issues. He recently served for several years as the President of Trustees at Phillips Exeter Academy, in New Hampshire.
“Nothing has been moving for a few months in all the key employment indicators we look at and watch,” said Frank Fiorille, vice president of risk management, compliance and data analytics at Paychex. “They really have stabilized. I actually thought the index was going to be a lot lower given the COVID spikes, so I was pleasantly surprised to see it just moderately declined by 0.03 percent from October, which is relatively flat.”
Paychex competitor ADP also reported a slowing in small business job growth on the ADP National Employment Report, with small businesses adding 110,000 jobs in November, compared to 146,000 in October. Overall, the private sector added 307,000 jobs across businesses of all sizes, according to ADP, but that was down from 404,000 in October.
“While November saw employment gains, the pace continues to slow,” said Ahu Yildirmaz, vice president and co-head of the ADP Research Institute, in a statement Wednesday. “Job growth remained positive across all industries and sizes.”
According to Paychex, the South remained the top-ranked region of the U.S. for employment growth, a full one point above the next highest region. The Northeast was the only region with weekly earnings growth above 3 percent. Texas has climbed one spot in the state rankings for each month for the past quarter, now ranking first among states in job growth.
Construction led the way among industries in terms of job growth for the seventh consecutive month. However, the leisure and hospitality industry lagged far behind with the weakest number on Paychex’s index for the past eight months. While leisure and hospitality ranked in first place among the sectors in terms of hourly earnings growth (increasing 4.15 percent), it was last in terms of weekly hours worked growth (declining 2.44 percent). Unlike other sectors, the financial activities sector didn’t experience a significant disruption in weekly hours worked as growth has been steadily positive and consistent during 2020.
With Congress again talking about passing a stimulus package before the end of the year and President-elect Joe Biden set to take office in January, he advises accountants to keep a close watch on the changes coming out of Washington.
“I guess the message would be that it’s not a time to take your eye off the ball,” said Fiorille. “Watch the stuff and be educated, because given COVID, given a new administration, new people coming into Congress, new leadership, there’s probably going to be more change with that.”
He is also seeing changes happening at the state level. “There’s a lot going on within state governments, whether it’s on the employment law front or minimum wage, or paid sick leave or unique taxes,” said Fiorille. “It seems like a lot of states are doing their own stuff. Be aware and be mindful of that.”
Earlier this week, the Government Accountability Office issued a reporton the federal response to COVID-19, including the challenges faced by the Internal Revenue Service and the Treasury Department in processing of employer tax credits, distributing Economic Impact Payments and in reaching individuals who may be eligible, but have not yet received an EIP, as well as the IRS’s implementation of the Presidential Memorandum on employee payroll tax deferral, and the IRS processing of amended individual and corporate income tax returns. The GAO recommended that the Treasury, in coordination with the IRS, should begin tracking and publicly reporting the number of individuals who were mailed an EIP notification letter and filed for and received an EIP, and use that information to inform ongoing outreach and communications efforts.
The report also found problems with the way the Department of Labor has been tracking unemployment statistics, in part due to delays in reporting by states that have been overwhelmed by unemployment claims. The GAO recommended that the Labor Department revise its weekly news releases to clarify that in the current unemployment environment, the numbers it reports for weeks of unemployment claimed don’t accurately estimate the number of unique individuals claiming benefits. The report also suggested the Labor Department should pursue options to report the actual number of distinct individuals claiming benefits, such as by collecting the data that’s already available from states.
“Clearly states are in various stages of how quickly they can get to them,” said Fiorille. “We kind of kid around that we’ve seen some job postings for COBOL programmers because some of these systems were designed in COBOL, so they’re not state of the art, to say the least. Depending on the state, you’ve seen delays and issues in the whole control function of that. Clearly you also have some fraud involved. You’re seeing more and more on that. Whenever you have this kind of chaos, like you’re reading about with the PPP program because they needed to get the money out quickly, they didn’t really have time to set up the walls and guardrails. It sounds like some of the numbers were overstated, which in some sense would be good that not as many people are on unemployment. In fact, the numbers that came out today were positive. The new UI numbers and the continuing claims were both down, but there’s still a lot of people hurting. It’s still not a good picture.”
