Small business job growth and hourly earnings declined slightly in November, according to payroll giant Paychex, amid signs of a slowdown in the economy as businesses continue to struggle with rising COVID-19 infections across the country.
Small business hiring fell 0.03 percent, while hourly earnings growth slowed for the fifth month in a row, from a peak of 3.29 percent in June to 2.76 percent in November, according to the Paychex | IHS Markit Small Business Employment Watch. The number of weekly hours worked also showed a decrease of 0.04 percent year over year.
Boštjan Kaluža is the chief data scientist at Evolven Software (www.evolven.com). He has published numerous articles in professional journals and delivered conference papers. He is author of Instant Weka How-to and Machine Learning in Java. Boštjan is also the author and contributor to numerous patents in the areas of anomaly detection and pattern recognition.
Jeff Smith is a partner in the Cleveland office and a member of Fisher Phillips' Employee Benefits Practice Group. He works with clients to create, implement and maintain their retirement and health plans.
He also advises employers on the impact of the Consolidated Omnibus Budget Reconciliation Act (COBRA) and the Health Insurance Portability and Accountability Act (HIPAA), as well as Multiple Employer Welfare Arrangements (MEWAs) and Voluntary Employer Beneficiary Associations (VEBAs).
While in law school, Jeff served as Executive Notes Editor and earlier as Associate Editor of the Health Matrix: Journal of Law-Medicine. He has been selected for inclusion in Ohio Super Lawyers - Rising Stars five times. He has also been listed in Best Lawyers since 2017.
Dax Craig is the co-founder, president, and chief executive officer of Valen Analytics, an advanced data and analytics provider for the property and casualty insurance industry. Valen leverages its large consortium data assets to help carriers price insurance policies more accurately and achieve lower loss ratios.Prior to founding Valen in 2004, Dax was founder and CEO of Xertex Technologies, a leading provider of antennas for Wi-Fi, in-building wireless, and telematics. He led the progress of the company from a concept he developed as an MBA student at the University of Colorado to its eventual acquisition by Centurion Wireless, now part of Laird plc. At the time of Xertex’s acquisition, Centurion was a global leader in the wireless antenna industry with over $150 million in annual revenue, seven factories, locations in five countries and over 1,500 employees.Dax proceeded to be vice president of global business development at Centurion, where he was directly responsible for global business development including sales, market definition, market segmentation, market research, strategic planning and market development.Believing in the importance of community involvement, Dax founded the Monticello Foundation, an organization of young professionals that raised money for Denver area children’s charities. He also founded Stay Tuned Colorado, a non-partisan organization that engaged young professionals to become more involved in the process of selecting national political leaders.He currently serves on the executive advisory board of the University of Tulsa’s College of Business and is a member of the Young Presidents Organization. Most recently, Dax was selected as a board member to the National Sports Center for the Disabled. Previously, he has served on the board of several community organizations including the Denver Opera and the Metro Denver Sports Commission.Dax graduated from the University of Tulsa with a bachelor’s degree in business administration and marketing. He earned his MBA in finance from the University of Colorado at Boulder.
“Nothing has been moving for a few months in all the key employment indicators we look at and watch,” said Frank Fiorille, vice president of risk management, compliance and data analytics at Paychex. “They really have stabilized. I actually thought the index was going to be a lot lower given the COVID spikes, so I was pleasantly surprised to see it just moderately declined by 0.03 percent from October, which is relatively flat.”
Paychex competitor ADP also reported a slowing in small business job growth on the ADP National Employment Report, with small businesses adding 110,000 jobs in November, compared to 146,000 in October. Overall, the private sector added 307,000 jobs across businesses of all sizes, according to ADP, but that was down from 404,000 in October.
“While November saw employment gains, the pace continues to slow,” said Ahu Yildirmaz, vice president and co-head of the ADP Research Institute, in a statement Wednesday. “Job growth remained positive across all industries and sizes.”
According to Paychex, the South remained the top-ranked region of the U.S. for employment growth, a full one point above the next highest region. The Northeast was the only region with weekly earnings growth above 3 percent. Texas has climbed one spot in the state rankings for each month for the past quarter, now ranking first among states in job growth.
Construction led the way among industries in terms of job growth for the seventh consecutive month. However, the leisure and hospitality industry lagged far behind with the weakest number on Paychex’s index for the past eight months. While leisure and hospitality ranked in first place among the sectors in terms of hourly earnings growth (increasing 4.15 percent), it was last in terms of weekly hours worked growth (declining 2.44 percent). Unlike other sectors, the financial activities sector didn’t experience a significant disruption in weekly hours worked as growth has been steadily positive and consistent during 2020.
With Congress again talking about passing a stimulus package before the end of the year and President-elect Joe Biden set to take office in January, he advises accountants to keep a close watch on the changes coming out of Washington.
“I guess the message would be that it’s not a time to take your eye off the ball,” said Fiorille. “Watch the stuff and be educated, because given COVID, given a new administration, new people coming into Congress, new leadership, there’s probably going to be more change with that.”
He is also seeing changes happening at the state level. “There’s a lot going on within state governments, whether it’s on the employment law front or minimum wage, or paid sick leave or unique taxes,” said Fiorille. “It seems like a lot of states are doing their own stuff. Be aware and be mindful of that.”
Earlier this week, the Government Accountability Office issued a reporton the federal response to COVID-19, including the challenges faced by the Internal Revenue Service and the Treasury Department in processing of employer tax credits, distributing Economic Impact Payments and in reaching individuals who may be eligible, but have not yet received an EIP, as well as the IRS’s implementation of the Presidential Memorandum on employee payroll tax deferral, and the IRS processing of amended individual and corporate income tax returns. The GAO recommended that the Treasury, in coordination with the IRS, should begin tracking and publicly reporting the number of individuals who were mailed an EIP notification letter and filed for and received an EIP, and use that information to inform ongoing outreach and communications efforts.
The report also found problems with the way the Department of Labor has been tracking unemployment statistics, in part due to delays in reporting by states that have been overwhelmed by unemployment claims. The GAO recommended that the Labor Department revise its weekly news releases to clarify that in the current unemployment environment, the numbers it reports for weeks of unemployment claimed don’t accurately estimate the number of unique individuals claiming benefits. The report also suggested the Labor Department should pursue options to report the actual number of distinct individuals claiming benefits, such as by collecting the data that’s already available from states.
“Clearly states are in various stages of how quickly they can get to them,” said Fiorille. “We kind of kid around that we’ve seen some job postings for COBOL programmers because some of these systems were designed in COBOL, so they’re not state of the art, to say the least. Depending on the state, you’ve seen delays and issues in the whole control function of that. Clearly you also have some fraud involved. You’re seeing more and more on that. Whenever you have this kind of chaos, like you’re reading about with the PPP program because they needed to get the money out quickly, they didn’t really have time to set up the walls and guardrails. It sounds like some of the numbers were overstated, which in some sense would be good that not as many people are on unemployment. In fact, the numbers that came out today were positive. The new UI numbers and the continuing claims were both down, but there’s still a lot of people hurting. It’s still not a good picture.”
