Small business job growth and hourly earnings declined slightly in November, according to payroll giant Paychex, amid signs of a slowdown in the economy as businesses continue to struggle with rising COVID-19 infections across the country.
Small business hiring fell 0.03 percent, while hourly earnings growth slowed for the fifth month in a row, from a peak of 3.29 percent in June to 2.76 percent in November, according to the Paychex | IHS Markit Small Business Employment Watch. The number of weekly hours worked also showed a decrease of 0.04 percent year over year.
John Bovenzi is a co-founder of The Bovenzi Group, a boutique financial consulting firm. He served as deputy to the chairman and chief operating officer of the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. for 10 years.
Grayson Milbourne is the Security Intelligence Director at OpenText Cybersecurity, a division of OpenText. Grayson's nearly two decades of security intelligence expertise include malware analysis, data science, and security education. In his current role, Grayson is focused on efficacy development to ensure the company's security management products (which include the Webroot portfolio) are able to defend against the most cutting-edge threats.
Grayson is a longtime advocate for better 3rd party testing of security products and represents OpenText Cybersecurity at the Anti-Malware Testing and Standards organization, AMTSO. Through his efforts, AMTSO released testing standards that greatly improved testing quality when followed. Grayson is an avid participant in the security community and drives awareness of current threats by speaking at major events such as RSAC and Virus Bulletin. He is a frequent guest on local NBC affiliates and several cybersecurity podcasts. Beyond his passion for protecting people from cyberthreats, Grayson loves aviation and holds a private pilot license. His other passions include strategic boards games, skiing and playing golf. He lives in Louisville, Colorado with his wife, Danielle and their two cats, Theodore and Aiden.
Merrilee Matchett is the head of Global Customer Service & Operations and a member of the Strategic Advisory Group for MetLife. In this role, she directs a team of more than 10,000 associates responsible for managing the operations and servicing teams that support and enable the U.S. Group Benefits, Retirement & Income Solutions, MetLife Holdings, and Asia, EMEA and LATAM businesses across more than 40 global markets. She is also the Chairperson of MetLife Europe, and MetLife Europe Insurance.
Matchett joined MetLife in 2021 from Bank of America, where she was responsible for service and operations for global wealth management, private banking, and institutional and personal retirement businesses supporting more than $3 trillion in client balances. She was also the Chairperson of Financial Data Services, LLC, responsible for the end-to-end operational support of domestic and offshore mutual funds.
Matchett has been an advocate for diversity and women in financial services throughout her 30-year career and has been recognized with numerous market awards for outstanding service and operations performance. She is a member of the MetLife enterprise Diversity, Equity & Inclusion Council, and represents MetLife on the board of INROADS, helping to provide career pathways for talented diverse youth across the United States.
She holds a B.A. in management with a law major from the University of Canberra, Australia. Additionally, she is FINRA accredited and licensed to trade and run a broker dealer.
“Nothing has been moving for a few months in all the key employment indicators we look at and watch,” said Frank Fiorille, vice president of risk management, compliance and data analytics at Paychex. “They really have stabilized. I actually thought the index was going to be a lot lower given the COVID spikes, so I was pleasantly surprised to see it just moderately declined by 0.03 percent from October, which is relatively flat.”
Paychex competitor ADP also reported a slowing in small business job growth on the ADP National Employment Report, with small businesses adding 110,000 jobs in November, compared to 146,000 in October. Overall, the private sector added 307,000 jobs across businesses of all sizes, according to ADP, but that was down from 404,000 in October.
“While November saw employment gains, the pace continues to slow,” said Ahu Yildirmaz, vice president and co-head of the ADP Research Institute, in a statement Wednesday. “Job growth remained positive across all industries and sizes.”
According to Paychex, the South remained the top-ranked region of the U.S. for employment growth, a full one point above the next highest region. The Northeast was the only region with weekly earnings growth above 3 percent. Texas has climbed one spot in the state rankings for each month for the past quarter, now ranking first among states in job growth.
Construction led the way among industries in terms of job growth for the seventh consecutive month. However, the leisure and hospitality industry lagged far behind with the weakest number on Paychex’s index for the past eight months. While leisure and hospitality ranked in first place among the sectors in terms of hourly earnings growth (increasing 4.15 percent), it was last in terms of weekly hours worked growth (declining 2.44 percent). Unlike other sectors, the financial activities sector didn’t experience a significant disruption in weekly hours worked as growth has been steadily positive and consistent during 2020.
With Congress again talking about passing a stimulus package before the end of the year and President-elect Joe Biden set to take office in January, he advises accountants to keep a close watch on the changes coming out of Washington.
“I guess the message would be that it’s not a time to take your eye off the ball,” said Fiorille. “Watch the stuff and be educated, because given COVID, given a new administration, new people coming into Congress, new leadership, there’s probably going to be more change with that.”
He is also seeing changes happening at the state level. “There’s a lot going on within state governments, whether it’s on the employment law front or minimum wage, or paid sick leave or unique taxes,” said Fiorille. “It seems like a lot of states are doing their own stuff. Be aware and be mindful of that.”
Earlier this week, the Government Accountability Office issued a reporton the federal response to COVID-19, including the challenges faced by the Internal Revenue Service and the Treasury Department in processing of employer tax credits, distributing Economic Impact Payments and in reaching individuals who may be eligible, but have not yet received an EIP, as well as the IRS’s implementation of the Presidential Memorandum on employee payroll tax deferral, and the IRS processing of amended individual and corporate income tax returns. The GAO recommended that the Treasury, in coordination with the IRS, should begin tracking and publicly reporting the number of individuals who were mailed an EIP notification letter and filed for and received an EIP, and use that information to inform ongoing outreach and communications efforts.
The report also found problems with the way the Department of Labor has been tracking unemployment statistics, in part due to delays in reporting by states that have been overwhelmed by unemployment claims. The GAO recommended that the Labor Department revise its weekly news releases to clarify that in the current unemployment environment, the numbers it reports for weeks of unemployment claimed don’t accurately estimate the number of unique individuals claiming benefits. The report also suggested the Labor Department should pursue options to report the actual number of distinct individuals claiming benefits, such as by collecting the data that’s already available from states.
“Clearly states are in various stages of how quickly they can get to them,” said Fiorille. “We kind of kid around that we’ve seen some job postings for COBOL programmers because some of these systems were designed in COBOL, so they’re not state of the art, to say the least. Depending on the state, you’ve seen delays and issues in the whole control function of that. Clearly you also have some fraud involved. You’re seeing more and more on that. Whenever you have this kind of chaos, like you’re reading about with the PPP program because they needed to get the money out quickly, they didn’t really have time to set up the walls and guardrails. It sounds like some of the numbers were overstated, which in some sense would be good that not as many people are on unemployment. In fact, the numbers that came out today were positive. The new UI numbers and the continuing claims were both down, but there’s still a lot of people hurting. It’s still not a good picture.”
