Small business job growth and hourly earnings declined slightly in November, according to payroll giant Paychex, amid signs of a slowdown in the economy as businesses continue to struggle with rising COVID-19 infections across the country.
Small business hiring fell 0.03 percent, while hourly earnings growth slowed for the fifth month in a row, from a peak of 3.29 percent in June to 2.76 percent in November, according to the Paychex | IHS Markit Small Business Employment Watch. The number of weekly hours worked also showed a decrease of 0.04 percent year over year.
Jeff is a founding member of Informed Consulting. He has 25+ plus years of employee benefits experience working with enterprise employers, digital health companies, health plans, insurance carriers, InsureTech, HCM, and financial wellness companies.
Via Informed Consulting, Jeff served as the CRO (Seed Round, Series A, and Series B) at Nayya. He held various sales leadership positions in 12 years at Benefitfocus, a benefits administration company. At Benefitfocus, Jeff developed an ecosystem distribution market for early-stage digital health and financial wellness companies. Prior to Benefitfocus, Jeff worked for health plans and insurance carriers for 13 years.
Jeff was named by Employee Benefits Advisor as “30 Benefit Thought Leaders to Know” and “30 People to watch in Benefits 2017”. Jeff has been featured in CNBC, Inc Magazine, Forbes, Employee Benefits News, US News and World Report, SHRM Magazine, and numerous other publications.
Julia Hu is an American entrepreneur and the co-founder and CEO of Lark. Founded on the personal experience of having grown up with an undiagnosed chronic condition, Julia is passionate about bringing compassionate care to those preventing or managing chronic disease. Hu was named to Business Insider’s 30 Under 40 Changing Healthcare list and was awarded as a member of the UCSF Health Awards Hall of Fame in 2021, as well as the EY Entrepreneurial Winning Women™ North America Class of 2021. Prior to founding Lark in 2011, Julia ran global startup incubator, the Clean Tech Open, built a sustainable construction startup, and was an Entrepreneur-in-Residence at Stanford’s StartX incubator. She is on the board of the Council for Diabetes Prevention and a Singularity University faculty member. Hu received her Master’s and Bachelor’s degrees at Stanford University and half of an MBA from MIT Sloan before founding Lark.
Bernie Dyme is president and CEO of Perspectives LTD, a behavioral health firm committed to delivering high-quality employee assistance programs, behavioral health, and organizational consulting services.
He is passionate about ending the stigma attached to mental health ensuring that everyone in companies has full access to mental health services and also focuses on prevention and early intervention. He is an active member of more than a dozen professional and community organizations that work toward his passion of bringing resources to all employees and organizations to ensure full access to help. These include the Employee Assistance Professionals Association (EAPA), the Society of Human Resource Professionals (SHRM), and the Executives Club of Chicago. He is also the Chair of the Advisory Council of The Crown Family School of Social Work, Policy and Practice at the University of Chicago. He is the past president of the Board of Directors for the Chicago Coalition for the Homeless and is currently an active member of the Board.
Bernie is a licensed clinical social worker (LCSW). He has his master’s degree in social work from the University of Chicago.
“Nothing has been moving for a few months in all the key employment indicators we look at and watch,” said Frank Fiorille, vice president of risk management, compliance and data analytics at Paychex. “They really have stabilized. I actually thought the index was going to be a lot lower given the COVID spikes, so I was pleasantly surprised to see it just moderately declined by 0.03 percent from October, which is relatively flat.”
Paychex competitor ADP also reported a slowing in small business job growth on the ADP National Employment Report, with small businesses adding 110,000 jobs in November, compared to 146,000 in October. Overall, the private sector added 307,000 jobs across businesses of all sizes, according to ADP, but that was down from 404,000 in October.
“While November saw employment gains, the pace continues to slow,” said Ahu Yildirmaz, vice president and co-head of the ADP Research Institute, in a statement Wednesday. “Job growth remained positive across all industries and sizes.”
According to Paychex, the South remained the top-ranked region of the U.S. for employment growth, a full one point above the next highest region. The Northeast was the only region with weekly earnings growth above 3 percent. Texas has climbed one spot in the state rankings for each month for the past quarter, now ranking first among states in job growth.
Construction led the way among industries in terms of job growth for the seventh consecutive month. However, the leisure and hospitality industry lagged far behind with the weakest number on Paychex’s index for the past eight months. While leisure and hospitality ranked in first place among the sectors in terms of hourly earnings growth (increasing 4.15 percent), it was last in terms of weekly hours worked growth (declining 2.44 percent). Unlike other sectors, the financial activities sector didn’t experience a significant disruption in weekly hours worked as growth has been steadily positive and consistent during 2020.
With Congress again talking about passing a stimulus package before the end of the year and President-elect Joe Biden set to take office in January, he advises accountants to keep a close watch on the changes coming out of Washington.
“I guess the message would be that it’s not a time to take your eye off the ball,” said Fiorille. “Watch the stuff and be educated, because given COVID, given a new administration, new people coming into Congress, new leadership, there’s probably going to be more change with that.”
He is also seeing changes happening at the state level. “There’s a lot going on within state governments, whether it’s on the employment law front or minimum wage, or paid sick leave or unique taxes,” said Fiorille. “It seems like a lot of states are doing their own stuff. Be aware and be mindful of that.”
Earlier this week, the Government Accountability Office issued a reporton the federal response to COVID-19, including the challenges faced by the Internal Revenue Service and the Treasury Department in processing of employer tax credits, distributing Economic Impact Payments and in reaching individuals who may be eligible, but have not yet received an EIP, as well as the IRS’s implementation of the Presidential Memorandum on employee payroll tax deferral, and the IRS processing of amended individual and corporate income tax returns. The GAO recommended that the Treasury, in coordination with the IRS, should begin tracking and publicly reporting the number of individuals who were mailed an EIP notification letter and filed for and received an EIP, and use that information to inform ongoing outreach and communications efforts.
The report also found problems with the way the Department of Labor has been tracking unemployment statistics, in part due to delays in reporting by states that have been overwhelmed by unemployment claims. The GAO recommended that the Labor Department revise its weekly news releases to clarify that in the current unemployment environment, the numbers it reports for weeks of unemployment claimed don’t accurately estimate the number of unique individuals claiming benefits. The report also suggested the Labor Department should pursue options to report the actual number of distinct individuals claiming benefits, such as by collecting the data that’s already available from states.
“Clearly states are in various stages of how quickly they can get to them,” said Fiorille. “We kind of kid around that we’ve seen some job postings for COBOL programmers because some of these systems were designed in COBOL, so they’re not state of the art, to say the least. Depending on the state, you’ve seen delays and issues in the whole control function of that. Clearly you also have some fraud involved. You’re seeing more and more on that. Whenever you have this kind of chaos, like you’re reading about with the PPP program because they needed to get the money out quickly, they didn’t really have time to set up the walls and guardrails. It sounds like some of the numbers were overstated, which in some sense would be good that not as many people are on unemployment. In fact, the numbers that came out today were positive. The new UI numbers and the continuing claims were both down, but there’s still a lot of people hurting. It’s still not a good picture.”
