Small business job growth and hourly earnings declined slightly in November, according to payroll giant Paychex, amid signs of a slowdown in the economy as businesses continue to struggle with rising COVID-19 infections across the country.
Small business hiring fell 0.03 percent, while hourly earnings growth slowed for the fifth month in a row, from a peak of 3.29 percent in June to 2.76 percent in November, according to the Paychex | IHS Markit Small Business Employment Watch. The number of weekly hours worked also showed a decrease of 0.04 percent year over year.
A subprime-related settlement between the government and Deutsche Bank provided meaningful benefits to some U.S. consumers in need, according to a new report. But the author acknowledged that those gains could prove illusory for some consumers given the coronavirus crisis.
Cathy Lanning serves as Senior Vice President for the Property & Casualty Marketing organization. In this role, she is responsible for the development and execution of integrated marketing plans for personal and commercial insurance products. Together with her team, she builds the brand and the Nationwide business leveraging data-driven direct marketing, partnerships, digital media, social media, cooperative agency marketing and lead generation strategies.
Most recently, Cathy led Strategic Partnerships where she established a large partnership portfolio with a data driven relationship-based selling approach. Together with partners such as alumni associations, cause organizations and sports organizations, Nationwide was able to understand the exact needs of a household and bring the right solutions at the right time to meet their protection needs. Under her leadership, the business unit grew by over 100% in five years.
Cathy joined Nationwide in 2007 as part of the leadership team that launched Nationwide Bank. Throughout her tenure at the company, she has held roles that require innovation, vision and team building. This includes establishing new digital marketing tools for agents, launching new products in the market, and establishing the Marketing Analytics organization. The Marketing Analytics organization delivered the first-generation marketing mix models, comprehensive digital analytics, and forecasting models, all of which helped Nationwide understand marketing effectiveness across channels and identified investment optimization pathways. The insights served the business lines across the company and opened new horizons for efficient growth and retention.
She has broad experience in brand management, analytics, partnership development, direct marketing, distribution marketing, innovation, product development and strategic planning. Prior to joining Nationwide, Cathy was the Brand Manager at The Scotts Company and Product Manager at WorldCom focused on Virtual Private Networks.
Cathy is a proud Ohio State University alumnus, holding a Bachelor of Science in Psychology, a Bachelor of Science in Business Administration (Marketing) and Masters in Business Administration. She is also a graduate from the Northwestern Kellogg Senior Women in Leadership program.
Outside of work, Cathy is a passionate advocate for education and community learning programs. To live this mission, Cathy serves on the board of The Ohio State University Alumni Association, The Girl Scouts of Ohio’s Heartland and The Wellington School.
Shelley Brazeau Temple serves as President of Nationwide P&C Personal Lines. In this role, Shelley is responsible for all aspects of the Personal Lines Profit and Loss (P&L) segment including product, underwriting, sales and distribution, claims and service.
She most recently served as Nationwide P&C Senior Vice President and Chief Claims and Operations Officer. Prior to that, she served as Senior Vice President of Member Solutions, leading the company’s insurance servicing and billing operations and direct phone sales organization.
Other leadership positions she has held are:
- Regional Vice President of Nationwide’s South Central Operations, responsible for sales, pricing, underwriting and product in a six-state geography, and managing a more than $660 million in sales revenue through exclusive agents and direct sales.
- VP of Strategy and Operational Effectiveness for Customer Service and Direct Sales of Nationwide, developing and executing an innovative contact center strategy.
- VP of Personal Lines Service Operations, responsible for personal lines service and processing center operations.
Shelley began her career at Nationwide as a Claims associate 27 years ago. Her increased responsibilities in leadership positions throughout the years also led her to work with internal audits, product and agency sales.
Shelley holds a bachelor’s degree from Bowling Green State University and the Chartered Property and Casualty Underwriting (CPCU) designation. She has served on several non-profit boards, including Ronald McDonald Children's Charities and the American Lung Association of the Midland States with participation in development, audit/finance and executive committees.
“Nothing has been moving for a few months in all the key employment indicators we look at and watch,” said Frank Fiorille, vice president of risk management, compliance and data analytics at Paychex. “They really have stabilized. I actually thought the index was going to be a lot lower given the COVID spikes, so I was pleasantly surprised to see it just moderately declined by 0.03 percent from October, which is relatively flat.”
Paychex competitor ADP also reported a slowing in small business job growth on the ADP National Employment Report, with small businesses adding 110,000 jobs in November, compared to 146,000 in October. Overall, the private sector added 307,000 jobs across businesses of all sizes, according to ADP, but that was down from 404,000 in October.
“While November saw employment gains, the pace continues to slow,” said Ahu Yildirmaz, vice president and co-head of the ADP Research Institute, in a statement Wednesday. “Job growth remained positive across all industries and sizes.”
According to Paychex, the South remained the top-ranked region of the U.S. for employment growth, a full one point above the next highest region. The Northeast was the only region with weekly earnings growth above 3 percent. Texas has climbed one spot in the state rankings for each month for the past quarter, now ranking first among states in job growth.
Construction led the way among industries in terms of job growth for the seventh consecutive month. However, the leisure and hospitality industry lagged far behind with the weakest number on Paychex’s index for the past eight months. While leisure and hospitality ranked in first place among the sectors in terms of hourly earnings growth (increasing 4.15 percent), it was last in terms of weekly hours worked growth (declining 2.44 percent). Unlike other sectors, the financial activities sector didn’t experience a significant disruption in weekly hours worked as growth has been steadily positive and consistent during 2020.
With Congress again talking about passing a stimulus package before the end of the year and President-elect Joe Biden set to take office in January, he advises accountants to keep a close watch on the changes coming out of Washington.
“I guess the message would be that it’s not a time to take your eye off the ball,” said Fiorille. “Watch the stuff and be educated, because given COVID, given a new administration, new people coming into Congress, new leadership, there’s probably going to be more change with that.”
He is also seeing changes happening at the state level. “There’s a lot going on within state governments, whether it’s on the employment law front or minimum wage, or paid sick leave or unique taxes,” said Fiorille. “It seems like a lot of states are doing their own stuff. Be aware and be mindful of that.”
Earlier this week, the Government Accountability Office issued a reporton the federal response to COVID-19, including the challenges faced by the Internal Revenue Service and the Treasury Department in processing of employer tax credits, distributing Economic Impact Payments and in reaching individuals who may be eligible, but have not yet received an EIP, as well as the IRS’s implementation of the Presidential Memorandum on employee payroll tax deferral, and the IRS processing of amended individual and corporate income tax returns. The GAO recommended that the Treasury, in coordination with the IRS, should begin tracking and publicly reporting the number of individuals who were mailed an EIP notification letter and filed for and received an EIP, and use that information to inform ongoing outreach and communications efforts.
The report also found problems with the way the Department of Labor has been tracking unemployment statistics, in part due to delays in reporting by states that have been overwhelmed by unemployment claims. The GAO recommended that the Labor Department revise its weekly news releases to clarify that in the current unemployment environment, the numbers it reports for weeks of unemployment claimed don’t accurately estimate the number of unique individuals claiming benefits. The report also suggested the Labor Department should pursue options to report the actual number of distinct individuals claiming benefits, such as by collecting the data that’s already available from states.
“Clearly states are in various stages of how quickly they can get to them,” said Fiorille. “We kind of kid around that we’ve seen some job postings for COBOL programmers because some of these systems were designed in COBOL, so they’re not state of the art, to say the least. Depending on the state, you’ve seen delays and issues in the whole control function of that. Clearly you also have some fraud involved. You’re seeing more and more on that. Whenever you have this kind of chaos, like you’re reading about with the PPP program because they needed to get the money out quickly, they didn’t really have time to set up the walls and guardrails. It sounds like some of the numbers were overstated, which in some sense would be good that not as many people are on unemployment. In fact, the numbers that came out today were positive. The new UI numbers and the continuing claims were both down, but there’s still a lot of people hurting. It’s still not a good picture.”
