U.S. states saw their tax revenue drop by about $31 billion, or 6 percent, from March through August, compared to the same period a year earlier, as the pandemic triggered economic shutdowns across the country, according to data from 44 states compiled by the Urban Institute.
The scale of the drop appears smaller than expected, relative to the depth of the economic contraction, and comes after several states have reported that their revenue didn’t decline as much as anticipated despite business shutdowns and increased unemployment. In August, when much of the country was reopening, state revenue climbed about 1.1 percent from a year earlier, the Urban Institute found.
Dr. Becca Baaske is an Assistant Professor of Accounting in the Sykes College of Business at the University of Tampa. She brings practical experience from both public accounting, having worked as an auditor at PwC Chicago, and corporate accounting, where she served as staff at the former John Marshall Law School. Her research primarily contributes to the auditing and accounting information systems (AIS) judgment and decision-making literature, with a focus on experimental methodology. Specifically, much of her work examines how auditors may overlook risks or audit issues due to insufficient skill sets related to data or limitations in skeptical cognitive processing. Additionally, she contributes to the accounting education literature, exploring topics such as motivation, learning, and initiatives aimed at strengthening the accounting pipeline. She has published in academic journals such as Auditing: A Journal of Practice & Theory, Journal of Information Systems, and Accounting Horizons.
Colin McNamara is an editorial intern at American Banker via the Dow Jones News Fund. He recently graduated with a bachelor's degree in journalism and minor in general business from the University of Maryland, where he covered politics at Capital News Service and college sports as the managing editor of Testudo Times. He interned or freelanced for a variety of other publications, including The Baltimore Sun.
Jarrod Barry is a summer reporting associate at National Mortgage News through the Dow Jones News Fund. He is currently studying at the Craig Newmark Graduate School of Journalism at CUNY.
The tax figures come as Republicans in Washington balk at extending aid to states and cities to help cover budget deficits that are expected to continue as the coronavirus weighs on the economy. Experts say that states’ financial outlooks could worsen as the effects of the stimulus bill fade and high unemployment reduces tax bills next year.
The August increase should be viewed with caution since income-tax deadlines were pushed back to July, which could have resulted in some revenue being processed later, according to Lucy Dadayan, senior research associate with the Urban-Brookings Tax Policy Center at the Urban Institute. Personal income-tax collections, which rose 3.8 percent in August, were in some cases supported by backlogged unemployment insurance benefits subject to withholding tax, Dadayan said.
Between March and August, tax revenues fell 6.4 percent year over year, with 36 states reporting declines over that period, the report said. Between March and August, eight states, including Washington and Georgia, reported growth in tax revenue.
“Due to the shifting in timing of tax receipts this past year, it is crucial to view August year-over-year revenue gains and fiscal year to date data with caution,” Dadayan said in the report.