U.S. states saw their tax revenue drop by about $31 billion, or 6 percent, from March through August, compared to the same period a year earlier, as the pandemic triggered economic shutdowns across the country, according to data from 44 states compiled by the Urban Institute.
The scale of the drop appears smaller than expected, relative to the depth of the economic contraction, and comes after several states have reported that their revenue didn’t decline as much as anticipated despite business shutdowns and increased unemployment. In August, when much of the country was reopening, state revenue climbed about 1.1 percent from a year earlier, the Urban Institute found.
JP Nicols is managing director of Alloy Labs, a member-led consortium of banks focused on applied insights and collaboration.
Jason Rahlan is the Global Head of Sustainability and Impact at Dayforce. He has previously held a number of roles in the public, non-profit, and private sectors. This includes time at Chobani, the Human Rights Campaign (HRC), the U.S. Department of State, and the U.S. House of Representatives. He is currently a member of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) Sustainability Advisory Council as well as a board member for the Center for Family Support (CFS) Foundation. He holds a Bachelor of Arts from American University and a Master of Science from Columbia University.
Elia Resch is director of partnerships at Digital Transformation Solutions. She is also the ecosystem acceleration lead at Cambridge SupTech Lab at Cambridge University.
The tax figures come as Republicans in Washington balk at extending aid to states and cities to help cover budget deficits that are expected to continue as the coronavirus weighs on the economy. Experts say that states’ financial outlooks could worsen as the effects of the stimulus bill fade and high unemployment reduces tax bills next year.
The August increase should be viewed with caution since income-tax deadlines were pushed back to July, which could have resulted in some revenue being processed later, according to Lucy Dadayan, senior research associate with the Urban-Brookings Tax Policy Center at the Urban Institute. Personal income-tax collections, which rose 3.8 percent in August, were in some cases supported by backlogged unemployment insurance benefits subject to withholding tax, Dadayan said.
Between March and August, tax revenues fell 6.4 percent year over year, with 36 states reporting declines over that period, the report said. Between March and August, eight states, including Washington and Georgia, reported growth in tax revenue.
“Due to the shifting in timing of tax receipts this past year, it is crucial to view August year-over-year revenue gains and fiscal year to date data with caution,” Dadayan said in the report.