U.S. states saw their tax revenue drop by about $31 billion, or 6 percent, from March through August, compared to the same period a year earlier, as the pandemic triggered economic shutdowns across the country, according to data from 44 states compiled by the Urban Institute.
The scale of the drop appears smaller than expected, relative to the depth of the economic contraction, and comes after several states have reported that their revenue didn’t decline as much as anticipated despite business shutdowns and increased unemployment. In August, when much of the country was reopening, state revenue climbed about 1.1 percent from a year earlier, the Urban Institute found.
Ian Vacin is co-founder and chief partnerships officer at Karbon and is co-author of Scale with Purpose: The Service Entrepreneur's Guide to Intentional Growth. He has nearly three decades of leadership experience in technology and accounting with Karbon, Xero and Intuit, and is passionate about helping accounting professionals be as successful as possible so they can better serve the small businesses they support.
Max Gokhman is deputy CIO for Franklin Templeton Investment Solutions, responsible for leading global investment research, including quantitative, fundamental and manager research teams. Previously, he was president and CIO of the startup asset manager AlphaTrAI and before that, head of asset allocation at Pacific Life Fund Advisors. Prior to Pacific Life, he was a portfolio manager with Mellon Capital's multiasset group and a founding member of Coefficient Global, a quantitative macro hedge fund.
The tax figures come as Republicans in Washington balk at extending aid to states and cities to help cover budget deficits that are expected to continue as the coronavirus weighs on the economy. Experts say that states’ financial outlooks could worsen as the effects of the stimulus bill fade and high unemployment reduces tax bills next year.
The August increase should be viewed with caution since income-tax deadlines were pushed back to July, which could have resulted in some revenue being processed later, according to Lucy Dadayan, senior research associate with the Urban-Brookings Tax Policy Center at the Urban Institute. Personal income-tax collections, which rose 3.8 percent in August, were in some cases supported by backlogged unemployment insurance benefits subject to withholding tax, Dadayan said.
Between March and August, tax revenues fell 6.4 percent year over year, with 36 states reporting declines over that period, the report said. Between March and August, eight states, including Washington and Georgia, reported growth in tax revenue.
“Due to the shifting in timing of tax receipts this past year, it is crucial to view August year-over-year revenue gains and fiscal year to date data with caution,” Dadayan said in the report.