U.S. states saw their tax revenue drop by about $31 billion, or 6 percent, from March through August, compared to the same period a year earlier, as the pandemic triggered economic shutdowns across the country, according to data from 44 states compiled by the Urban Institute.
The scale of the drop appears smaller than expected, relative to the depth of the economic contraction, and comes after several states have reported that their revenue didn’t decline as much as anticipated despite business shutdowns and increased unemployment. In August, when much of the country was reopening, state revenue climbed about 1.1 percent from a year earlier, the Urban Institute found.
George Nichkov is the CEO and co-founder of Taxnova, a platform that helps tech companies automate their R&D tax credit with AI. Before Taxnova, he was a product lead at Gett, where he built and launched B2B products including a corporate portal, APIs and carpooling. He began his career in strategy consulting at Oliver Wyman, and has since worked across product, AI and entrepreneurship.
Ali Diab is the co-founder and CEO of Collective Health, the world's leading employer health benefit plan administration platform. Ali has more than 25 years of experience leading high-growth technology organizations, and prior to co-founding Collective Health, was Vice President of Product Management and Business Operations at AdMob by Google. Previously, Ali held executive and management positions at Goldman Sachs, Microsoft, and Yahoo!. Ali is a graduate of Stanford and Oxford Universities and is a Member of the Board of Advisers of the Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research (SIEPR) and a Trustee of San Francisco Day School.
Lee M. Shavel is Verisk's president and chief executive officer. He brings over 30 years of experience advising and leading publicly traded companies to Verisk—determining strategies and policies, overseeing financial performance and furthering company culture.
The tax figures come as Republicans in Washington balk at extending aid to states and cities to help cover budget deficits that are expected to continue as the coronavirus weighs on the economy. Experts say that states’ financial outlooks could worsen as the effects of the stimulus bill fade and high unemployment reduces tax bills next year.
The August increase should be viewed with caution since income-tax deadlines were pushed back to July, which could have resulted in some revenue being processed later, according to Lucy Dadayan, senior research associate with the Urban-Brookings Tax Policy Center at the Urban Institute. Personal income-tax collections, which rose 3.8 percent in August, were in some cases supported by backlogged unemployment insurance benefits subject to withholding tax, Dadayan said.
Between March and August, tax revenues fell 6.4 percent year over year, with 36 states reporting declines over that period, the report said. Between March and August, eight states, including Washington and Georgia, reported growth in tax revenue.
“Due to the shifting in timing of tax receipts this past year, it is crucial to view August year-over-year revenue gains and fiscal year to date data with caution,” Dadayan said in the report.