U.S. states saw their tax revenue drop by about $31 billion, or 6 percent, from March through August, compared to the same period a year earlier, as the pandemic triggered economic shutdowns across the country, according to data from 44 states compiled by the Urban Institute.
The scale of the drop appears smaller than expected, relative to the depth of the economic contraction, and comes after several states have reported that their revenue didn’t decline as much as anticipated despite business shutdowns and increased unemployment. In August, when much of the country was reopening, state revenue climbed about 1.1 percent from a year earlier, the Urban Institute found.
Ed McFadden is the senior vice president for communications at the American Financial Services Association.
Kara Clark, FSA, is a Senior Research Actuary at the Society of Actuaries Research Institute, focusing on mortality and longevity and their implications for the life insurance industry.
She brings over three decades of actuarial and leadership experience across consulting, industry, and professional organizations. Most recently, she was a Partner at Oliver Wyman, advising on risk modeling, value-based care, and health strategy, informing her perspective on healthcare drivers of mortality.
Her work emphasizes practical, research-based insights for actuaries and industry leaders. She holds an MBA from Northwestern University and a BA in Economics from the University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign.
Maik Taro Wehmeyer is the co-founder and CEO of Taktile, the leading AI decision platform built to empower financial institutions to make faster, more accurate decisions in risk management.
The tax figures come as Republicans in Washington balk at extending aid to states and cities to help cover budget deficits that are expected to continue as the coronavirus weighs on the economy. Experts say that states’ financial outlooks could worsen as the effects of the stimulus bill fade and high unemployment reduces tax bills next year.
The August increase should be viewed with caution since income-tax deadlines were pushed back to July, which could have resulted in some revenue being processed later, according to Lucy Dadayan, senior research associate with the Urban-Brookings Tax Policy Center at the Urban Institute. Personal income-tax collections, which rose 3.8 percent in August, were in some cases supported by backlogged unemployment insurance benefits subject to withholding tax, Dadayan said.
Between March and August, tax revenues fell 6.4 percent year over year, with 36 states reporting declines over that period, the report said. Between March and August, eight states, including Washington and Georgia, reported growth in tax revenue.
“Due to the shifting in timing of tax receipts this past year, it is crucial to view August year-over-year revenue gains and fiscal year to date data with caution,” Dadayan said in the report.