U.S. states saw their tax revenue drop by about $31 billion, or 6 percent, from March through August, compared to the same period a year earlier, as the pandemic triggered economic shutdowns across the country, according to data from 44 states compiled by the Urban Institute.
The scale of the drop appears smaller than expected, relative to the depth of the economic contraction, and comes after several states have reported that their revenue didn’t decline as much as anticipated despite business shutdowns and increased unemployment. In August, when much of the country was reopening, state revenue climbed about 1.1 percent from a year earlier, the Urban Institute found.
Cagatay Zor is a fintech strategist and the head of the fintech and blockchain business line at Trumore.
Ciao-Wei Chen is an associate professor of accountancy at the Gies College of Business at the University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign.
Max Perkins is head of insurance solutions and COO for Spektrum Labs, an AI-first cyber resilience company that provides agents and tools to reduce the time, cost, and complexity of maintaining provable and effective security and insurability. Spektrum unifies the disconnected domains of cybersecurity, backup, and insurance into one continuous, automated system. By fusing these traditionally disconnected areas, Spektrum enables businesses to prove and maintain continuous resilience—from preventing cyber threats, to instant recovery, to securing financial coverage—all in one place. Spektrum unlocks resilience, automating and verifying the connection between security and insurance, so businesses can recover faster and protect their future.
Prior to joining Spektrum, Max's professional career had been focused on insurance and risk management with particular expertise in intangible boardroom risks such as cyber, privacy, and intellectual property, and the overall impact of technology on business. Max was head of Strategy & Innovation for AXIS Capital's Cyber & Technology underwriting division, where his responsibilities included risk capital management and leadership in launching the world's first securitized 144a Cyber Cat Bond. Prior to joining AXIS in April 2020, he was an insurance broker at Lockton Companies and an underwriter at AIG, CHUBB and Beazley – operating both in the US and London markets.
The tax figures come as Republicans in Washington balk at extending aid to states and cities to help cover budget deficits that are expected to continue as the coronavirus weighs on the economy. Experts say that states’ financial outlooks could worsen as the effects of the stimulus bill fade and high unemployment reduces tax bills next year.
The August increase should be viewed with caution since income-tax deadlines were pushed back to July, which could have resulted in some revenue being processed later, according to Lucy Dadayan, senior research associate with the Urban-Brookings Tax Policy Center at the Urban Institute. Personal income-tax collections, which rose 3.8 percent in August, were in some cases supported by backlogged unemployment insurance benefits subject to withholding tax, Dadayan said.
Between March and August, tax revenues fell 6.4 percent year over year, with 36 states reporting declines over that period, the report said. Between March and August, eight states, including Washington and Georgia, reported growth in tax revenue.
“Due to the shifting in timing of tax receipts this past year, it is crucial to view August year-over-year revenue gains and fiscal year to date data with caution,” Dadayan said in the report.