The next stimulus should aim for a broad-based, inclusive recovery

Economic experts believe the current surge is not enough to stop continued losses incurred by various segments of economy.

On election night, Democratic campaign consultants may have been wondering, “Where did all these voters come from?” But unless the next Congress sets a legislative course over the next few months, Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi may soon be wondering, “Where did all the voters go?”

The incoming Biden administration will need to navigate an extremely rough economic path ahead. Congress has struggled to reach an agreement for another round of stimulus to provide emergency relief for families and businesses. Now they must act before the “dark winter” ahead further deteriorates the economic recovery.

CORONAVIRUS IMPACT: ADDITIONAL COVERAGE

Craig Hinkley joined WhiteHat Security as chief executive officer in early 2015, bringing more than 20 years of executive leadership in the technology sector to this role. Craig is driving a customer-centric focus throughout the company, and has broadened WhiteHat’s global brand and visibility beyond the application security space and security buyer, to the world of the development organization and a DevSecOps approach to application development.

Prior to joining WhiteHat Security, Craig served as vice president and general manager of the LogLogic business unit for TIBCO Software. In that role, he was responsible for global field sales and operations, client technical services, engineering, research and development, product design, and product management. Before TIBCO, he served as the general manager at Hewlett-Packard for the HP Networking Business in the Americas. Earlier in his career, Craig held positions at Cisco Systems Inc. and Bank of America. He earned a bachelor’s degree in Information Technology from the Swinburne University of Technology in Australia.

Annette Wright is a senior director at Paradigm Technology. She has over 20 years of experience in data architecture, data management, business intelligence and regulatory / financial reporting. Prior to joining Paradigm, Annette has worked as a lead technical architect, data governance manager, lead business systems analyst and an IBM managing consultant.

She has been recognized for delivering a World Class Reporting Solution for EU LCR in 2016 by BNP Paribas and was a recipient of the 2007 Gold American Express Technology Excellence award for leadership in design and implementation.

Gross domestic product, the broadest measure of goods and services produced across the economy, decreased at an annual rate of 32.9 percent in the second quarter of 2020, followed by a surged of 33.1 percent in the third quarter, in part due to earlier rounds of fiscal stimulus when businesses were offered Economic Injury Disaster Loans and forgivable Paycheck Protection Program loans, and individuals received direct payments and extended unemployment benefits.

Economic experts believe the current surge is not enough to stop continued losses incurred by various segments of economy.

“While the strong bounce back in activity from the initial devastation of COVID-19 was heartening, the recovery thus far has been highly uneven, and the path ahead is highly uncertain,” said Federal Reserve Governor Lael Brainard in a speech last month at the Society of Professional Economists annual online conference.

This highly uneven and uncertain bounce indicates the prospect of a K-shaped recovery, where some sectors continue to recover, while others see a steady decline.

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The new stimulus package must focus on the sectors facing difficulties ahead to avoid colossal damage and massive layoffs.

According to the U.S. Chamber of Commerce, approximately 4 million small businesses — 13 percent of America’s 31 million smallest employers — have now exhausted their PPP loans, and many face permanent closure without further assistance.

According to the National Restaurant Association, the restaurant industry will lose $240 billion. U.S airlines may be forced to furlough 75,000 pilots, flight attendants, mechanics and other workers by the end of 2020 if Congress doesn’t act.

States and municipalities are now on verge of extreme shortfalls due to declines in tax revenues and rises in additional costs. Local governments that fund and operate public school systems will need more funding. “The average school district will face $1.8 million, or $485 per student, in additional costs for disinfectants, personal protective equipment and other preparations to bring students into classrooms this year,” according to the Association of School Business Officials.

The Federal Reserve’s Survey of Consumer Finances indicates that cash-strained households will continue to suffer as a result of continued unemployment and reduced working hours. The CARES Act did support these households either through direct payments or enhanced unemployment benefits this year, but the financial security of these households will depend on whether unemployment benefits will be extended or supplemented next year.

Therefore, it is imperative for Congress to ensure that the recovery reaches those who have been disproportionately affected. A targeted fiscal support can turn a K-shaped recovery into a broad-based, inclusive recovery to eliminate shortfalls in employment and provide a better outcome overall.

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