On election night, Democratic campaign consultants may have been wondering, “Where did all these voters come from?” But unless the next Congress sets a legislative course over the next few months, Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi may soon be wondering, “Where did all the voters go?”
The incoming Biden administration will need to navigate an extremely rough economic path ahead. Congress has struggled to reach an agreement for another round of stimulus to provide emergency relief for families and businesses. Now they must act before the “dark winter” ahead further deteriorates the economic recovery.
Mr. Klein is a partner at Kensington Capital Advisors, an independent derivative advisory firm representing borrowers who need advice and counsel related to interest rate, commodity and foreign exchange derivative applications. The practice is national in scope and the Company’s clients operate as non-for-profit (501c3) and municipal organizations, government sponsored entities, tax credit investors, investment banks, and both conventional and non-for-profit real estate developers.Prior to his work at Kensington Capital Advisors, Mr. Klein was a derivative specialist on Bank of America’s derivative trading desk starting in 1995. The client base served by this group encompassed indirect issuers of tax-exempt and taxable municipal debt and public finance professionals, including municipal bond underwriters, financial advisors, municipal reinvestment brokers and bond counsels. The group was responsible for all tax-exempt liability hedging such as swaps for VRDN’s and forward issued municipal bonds. In addition, the group was responsible for all derivative investment products for municipal bond proceeds including forward supply agreements, GIC’s and flexible repurchase agreements for construction funds, reserve funds, debt service funds, escrows, etc.Mr. Klein joined Bank of America (formerly NationsBank) in 1993, after two years with PNC Financial Corporation in the Investment Management and Trust Division. In 1995, Jeff began with the Interest Rate Risk Management Group after working for two years as an analyst in the Bank’s Corporate Finance Department focusing on relationships throughout the southeast and also within industry groups such as Forest Products and Textiles. Mr. Klein’s educational accomplishments include a BS in Business Economics and International Finance from Brown University (1990) and the Danish International School of Business in Copenhagen, Denmark (1988). He has received his series 6, 7 & 63 securities licenses as well as the Chartered Financial Analyst™ (CFA®) designation.
Carl Mazzanti is the founder and CEO of eMazzanti Technologies. His firm specializes in multi-site implementations, outsourced network management, remote monitoring, and support based on Microsoft and related technologies for customers ranging from home office to high-end retail and multinational corporations.
Sean W. Glynn is a partner at Arent Fox LLP and focuses on nonprofit representation. He has significant experience in complex financings, including the securities, corporate, tax and real estate issues that arise in such transactions.
Gross domestic product, the broadest measure of goods and services produced across the economy, decreased at an annual rate of 32.9 percent in the second quarter of 2020, followed by a surged of 33.1 percent in the third quarter, in part due to earlier rounds of fiscal stimulus when businesses were offered Economic Injury Disaster Loans and forgivable Paycheck Protection Program loans, and individuals received direct payments and extended unemployment benefits.
Economic experts believe the current surge is not enough to stop continued losses incurred by various segments of economy.
“While the strong bounce back in activity from the initial devastation of COVID-19 was heartening, the recovery thus far has been highly uneven, and the path ahead is highly uncertain,” said Federal Reserve Governor Lael Brainard in a speech last month at the Society of Professional Economists annual online conference.
This highly uneven and uncertain bounce indicates the prospect of a K-shaped recovery, where some sectors continue to recover, while others see a steady decline.
The new stimulus package must focus on the sectors facing difficulties ahead to avoid colossal damage and massive layoffs.
According to the U.S. Chamber of Commerce, approximately 4 million small businesses — 13 percent of America’s 31 million smallest employers — have now exhausted their PPP loans, and many face permanent closure without further assistance.
According to the National Restaurant Association, the restaurant industry will lose $240 billion. U.S airlines may be forced to furlough 75,000 pilots, flight attendants, mechanics and other workers by the end of 2020 if Congress doesn’t act.
States and municipalities are now on verge of extreme shortfalls due to declines in tax revenues and rises in additional costs. Local governments that fund and operate public school systems will need more funding. “The average school district will face $1.8 million, or $485 per student, in additional costs for disinfectants, personal protective equipment and other preparations to bring students into classrooms this year,” according to the Association of School Business Officials.
The Federal Reserve’s Survey of Consumer Finances indicates that cash-strained households will continue to suffer as a result of continued unemployment and reduced working hours. The CARES Act did support these households either through direct payments or enhanced unemployment benefits this year, but the financial security of these households will depend on whether unemployment benefits will be extended or supplemented next year.
Therefore, it is imperative for Congress to ensure that the recovery reaches those who have been disproportionately affected. A targeted fiscal support can turn a K-shaped recovery into a broad-based, inclusive recovery to eliminate shortfalls in employment and provide a better outcome overall.
