On election night, Democratic campaign consultants may have been wondering, “Where did all these voters come from?” But unless the next Congress sets a legislative course over the next few months, Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi may soon be wondering, “Where did all the voters go?”
The incoming Biden administration will need to navigate an extremely rough economic path ahead. Congress has struggled to reach an agreement for another round of stimulus to provide emergency relief for families and businesses. Now they must act before the “dark winter” ahead further deteriorates the economic recovery.
Boštjan Kaluža is the chief data scientist at Evolven Software (www.evolven.com). He has published numerous articles in professional journals and delivered conference papers. He is author of Instant Weka How-to and Machine Learning in Java. Boštjan is also the author and contributor to numerous patents in the areas of anomaly detection and pattern recognition.
Jeff Smith is a partner in the Cleveland office and a member of Fisher Phillips' Employee Benefits Practice Group. He works with clients to create, implement and maintain their retirement and health plans.
He also advises employers on the impact of the Consolidated Omnibus Budget Reconciliation Act (COBRA) and the Health Insurance Portability and Accountability Act (HIPAA), as well as Multiple Employer Welfare Arrangements (MEWAs) and Voluntary Employer Beneficiary Associations (VEBAs).
While in law school, Jeff served as Executive Notes Editor and earlier as Associate Editor of the Health Matrix: Journal of Law-Medicine. He has been selected for inclusion in Ohio Super Lawyers - Rising Stars five times. He has also been listed in Best Lawyers since 2017.
Dax Craig is the co-founder, president, and chief executive officer of Valen Analytics, an advanced data and analytics provider for the property and casualty insurance industry. Valen leverages its large consortium data assets to help carriers price insurance policies more accurately and achieve lower loss ratios.Prior to founding Valen in 2004, Dax was founder and CEO of Xertex Technologies, a leading provider of antennas for Wi-Fi, in-building wireless, and telematics. He led the progress of the company from a concept he developed as an MBA student at the University of Colorado to its eventual acquisition by Centurion Wireless, now part of Laird plc. At the time of Xertex’s acquisition, Centurion was a global leader in the wireless antenna industry with over $150 million in annual revenue, seven factories, locations in five countries and over 1,500 employees.Dax proceeded to be vice president of global business development at Centurion, where he was directly responsible for global business development including sales, market definition, market segmentation, market research, strategic planning and market development.Believing in the importance of community involvement, Dax founded the Monticello Foundation, an organization of young professionals that raised money for Denver area children’s charities. He also founded Stay Tuned Colorado, a non-partisan organization that engaged young professionals to become more involved in the process of selecting national political leaders.He currently serves on the executive advisory board of the University of Tulsa’s College of Business and is a member of the Young Presidents Organization. Most recently, Dax was selected as a board member to the National Sports Center for the Disabled. Previously, he has served on the board of several community organizations including the Denver Opera and the Metro Denver Sports Commission.Dax graduated from the University of Tulsa with a bachelor’s degree in business administration and marketing. He earned his MBA in finance from the University of Colorado at Boulder.
Gross domestic product, the broadest measure of goods and services produced across the economy, decreased at an annual rate of 32.9 percent in the second quarter of 2020, followed by a surged of 33.1 percent in the third quarter, in part due to earlier rounds of fiscal stimulus when businesses were offered Economic Injury Disaster Loans and forgivable Paycheck Protection Program loans, and individuals received direct payments and extended unemployment benefits.
Economic experts believe the current surge is not enough to stop continued losses incurred by various segments of economy.
“While the strong bounce back in activity from the initial devastation of COVID-19 was heartening, the recovery thus far has been highly uneven, and the path ahead is highly uncertain,” said Federal Reserve Governor Lael Brainard in a speech last month at the Society of Professional Economists annual online conference.
This highly uneven and uncertain bounce indicates the prospect of a K-shaped recovery, where some sectors continue to recover, while others see a steady decline.
The new stimulus package must focus on the sectors facing difficulties ahead to avoid colossal damage and massive layoffs.
According to the U.S. Chamber of Commerce, approximately 4 million small businesses — 13 percent of America’s 31 million smallest employers — have now exhausted their PPP loans, and many face permanent closure without further assistance.
According to the National Restaurant Association, the restaurant industry will lose $240 billion. U.S airlines may be forced to furlough 75,000 pilots, flight attendants, mechanics and other workers by the end of 2020 if Congress doesn’t act.
States and municipalities are now on verge of extreme shortfalls due to declines in tax revenues and rises in additional costs. Local governments that fund and operate public school systems will need more funding. “The average school district will face $1.8 million, or $485 per student, in additional costs for disinfectants, personal protective equipment and other preparations to bring students into classrooms this year,” according to the Association of School Business Officials.
The Federal Reserve’s Survey of Consumer Finances indicates that cash-strained households will continue to suffer as a result of continued unemployment and reduced working hours. The CARES Act did support these households either through direct payments or enhanced unemployment benefits this year, but the financial security of these households will depend on whether unemployment benefits will be extended or supplemented next year.
Therefore, it is imperative for Congress to ensure that the recovery reaches those who have been disproportionately affected. A targeted fiscal support can turn a K-shaped recovery into a broad-based, inclusive recovery to eliminate shortfalls in employment and provide a better outcome overall.
