On election night, Democratic campaign consultants may have been wondering, “Where did all these voters come from?” But unless the next Congress sets a legislative course over the next few months, Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi may soon be wondering, “Where did all the voters go?”
The incoming Biden administration will need to navigate an extremely rough economic path ahead. Congress has struggled to reach an agreement for another round of stimulus to provide emergency relief for families and businesses. Now they must act before the “dark winter” ahead further deteriorates the economic recovery.
Britt Steckman is a senior associate at Bracewell.
Paul is a partner in the Washington, D.C. office of Bracewell.� Paul’s career has intertwined with the SEC’s regulation of the municipal market from the very beginning, when as a young lawyer in the SEC’s Division of Enforcement he participated in preparing the SEC’s September 1977 and 1979 Staff Reports on New York City.� After practice as a securities, project finance, and bond lawyer in New York and Boston, �Paul returned to the SEC in 1994 to work for Chairman Levitt and serve as the first Director of the SEC’s Office of Municipal Securities. During that time, he participated in drafting the continuing disclosure amendments to Rule 15c2-12, oversaw SEC activity relating to Orange County California and advised the Commission on institution and settlement of over 100 enforcement actions in the municipal securities market.�Today, Paul defends states, local governments, and their officials, brokers, dealers, municipal securities dealers, municipal advisors, and their officers and employees, as well as individuals in investigations and enforcement proceedings by the SEC, Department of Justice, FINRA, and states Attorneys General.� Paul also serves as Counsel to a NRSRO, or Rating Agency, on regulatory and enforcement matters.� He advises clients on compliance with SEC and MSRB regulations, and corporate governance matters, conducts internal investigations, and serves as special disclosure counsel in securities transactions.Paul received the "Chairman's Award for Excellence" for his work in developing the amendments to Rule 15c2-12, while at the SEC, and received "The National Federation of Municipal Analysts�Industry Contribution Award" in 2001. Paul is listed in The Best Lawyers in America� in securities law, 2005 - 2010; in corporate governance and compliance law, 2006 -�2010;�and public finance law, 2005�- 2010.� Additionally, he is listed in Who's Who and What's What on Wall Street, Who's Who in America, Who's Who in American Law,The Lawdragon 500 Leading Lawyers in America 2005 edition, and Washington D.C. Super Lawyers 2007 for securities and corporate finance.Paul is frequently interviewed and quoted as an authority on securities regulation in international news media including The National, FTSE Global Markets, BBC News, The Business Times Singapore, and The Singapore American, as well as U.S. media, including The New York Times, The Wall Street Journal, Bloomberg News, the Associated Press, Reuters, and The Bond Buyer.
Jeff Curie is the President of Bitvore Corp., a provider of A.I.-based products that identify risk and opportunity for professionals in the municipal bond, banking and insurance industries.
Gross domestic product, the broadest measure of goods and services produced across the economy, decreased at an annual rate of 32.9 percent in the second quarter of 2020, followed by a surged of 33.1 percent in the third quarter, in part due to earlier rounds of fiscal stimulus when businesses were offered Economic Injury Disaster Loans and forgivable Paycheck Protection Program loans, and individuals received direct payments and extended unemployment benefits.
Economic experts believe the current surge is not enough to stop continued losses incurred by various segments of economy.
“While the strong bounce back in activity from the initial devastation of COVID-19 was heartening, the recovery thus far has been highly uneven, and the path ahead is highly uncertain,” said Federal Reserve Governor Lael Brainard in a speech last month at the Society of Professional Economists annual online conference.
This highly uneven and uncertain bounce indicates the prospect of a K-shaped recovery, where some sectors continue to recover, while others see a steady decline.
The new stimulus package must focus on the sectors facing difficulties ahead to avoid colossal damage and massive layoffs.
According to the U.S. Chamber of Commerce, approximately 4 million small businesses — 13 percent of America’s 31 million smallest employers — have now exhausted their PPP loans, and many face permanent closure without further assistance.
According to the National Restaurant Association, the restaurant industry will lose $240 billion. U.S airlines may be forced to furlough 75,000 pilots, flight attendants, mechanics and other workers by the end of 2020 if Congress doesn’t act.
States and municipalities are now on verge of extreme shortfalls due to declines in tax revenues and rises in additional costs. Local governments that fund and operate public school systems will need more funding. “The average school district will face $1.8 million, or $485 per student, in additional costs for disinfectants, personal protective equipment and other preparations to bring students into classrooms this year,” according to the Association of School Business Officials.
The Federal Reserve’s Survey of Consumer Finances indicates that cash-strained households will continue to suffer as a result of continued unemployment and reduced working hours. The CARES Act did support these households either through direct payments or enhanced unemployment benefits this year, but the financial security of these households will depend on whether unemployment benefits will be extended or supplemented next year.
Therefore, it is imperative for Congress to ensure that the recovery reaches those who have been disproportionately affected. A targeted fiscal support can turn a K-shaped recovery into a broad-based, inclusive recovery to eliminate shortfalls in employment and provide a better outcome overall.
