On election night, Democratic campaign consultants may have been wondering, “Where did all these voters come from?” But unless the next Congress sets a legislative course over the next few months, Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi may soon be wondering, “Where did all the voters go?”
The incoming Biden administration will need to navigate an extremely rough economic path ahead. Congress has struggled to reach an agreement for another round of stimulus to provide emergency relief for families and businesses. Now they must act before the “dark winter” ahead further deteriorates the economic recovery.
Gene Marks, CPA, is a columnist, author, and small-business owner. A past columnist for both The New York Times and The Washington Post, he now writes regularly for The Hill, The Philadelphia Inquirer, Forbes Inc. Magazine, Entrepreneur Magazine and Fox Business.
He has written five books on business management, specifically geared towards small and midsized companies. His most recent is "The Manufacturer’s Book of Lists." Nationally, he appears regularly on MSNBC and Fox News as well as The John Batchelor Show and SiriusXM’s Wharton Business Channel, where he talks about the financial, economic and technology issues that affect business leaders today.
Through his keynotes and breakout sessions, Marks helps business owners, executives and managers understand the political, economic and technological trends that will affect their companies and — most importantly — the actions they can take to continue to grow and profit.
He owns and operates the Marks Group PC, a 10-person firm that provides technology and consulting services to small and midsized businesses. Prior to starting the Marks Group, he spent nine years in the entrepreneurial services arm of the international consulting firm KPMG in Philadelphia where he was a senior manager.
Paul S. Hugel, Esq, is an attorney who has been practicing in the federal and state courts of New York for over 20 years. He is a partner in the law firm of Clayman & Rosenberg, LLP and has represented numerous clients in civil and criminal matters arising under United States securities laws. He can be reached at hugel@clayro.com.
Eduardo Singerman, CFE, CPA, is a Litigation Director in the Global Forensics practice at BDO USA, LLP in the firm’s New York office with more than 25 years of experience in public and private accounting. He is a member of the American Institute of Certified Public Accountants and New York State Society of Certified Public Accountants, and holds a Master’s degree in Economics and Accounting from the City University of New York. He has published articles in Forbes, Accounting Today, The CPA Journal, Benefits Compensation Digest, and Employee Benefit Journal. He can be reached at esingerman@bdo.com.
Gross domestic product, the broadest measure of goods and services produced across the economy, decreased at an annual rate of 32.9 percent in the second quarter of 2020, followed by a surged of 33.1 percent in the third quarter, in part due to earlier rounds of fiscal stimulus when businesses were offered Economic Injury Disaster Loans and forgivable Paycheck Protection Program loans, and individuals received direct payments and extended unemployment benefits.
Economic experts believe the current surge is not enough to stop continued losses incurred by various segments of economy.
“While the strong bounce back in activity from the initial devastation of COVID-19 was heartening, the recovery thus far has been highly uneven, and the path ahead is highly uncertain,” said Federal Reserve Governor Lael Brainard in a speech last month at the Society of Professional Economists annual online conference.
This highly uneven and uncertain bounce indicates the prospect of a K-shaped recovery, where some sectors continue to recover, while others see a steady decline.
The new stimulus package must focus on the sectors facing difficulties ahead to avoid colossal damage and massive layoffs.
According to the U.S. Chamber of Commerce, approximately 4 million small businesses — 13 percent of America’s 31 million smallest employers — have now exhausted their PPP loans, and many face permanent closure without further assistance.
According to the National Restaurant Association, the restaurant industry will lose $240 billion. U.S airlines may be forced to furlough 75,000 pilots, flight attendants, mechanics and other workers by the end of 2020 if Congress doesn’t act.
States and municipalities are now on verge of extreme shortfalls due to declines in tax revenues and rises in additional costs. Local governments that fund and operate public school systems will need more funding. “The average school district will face $1.8 million, or $485 per student, in additional costs for disinfectants, personal protective equipment and other preparations to bring students into classrooms this year,” according to the Association of School Business Officials.
The Federal Reserve’s Survey of Consumer Finances indicates that cash-strained households will continue to suffer as a result of continued unemployment and reduced working hours. The CARES Act did support these households either through direct payments or enhanced unemployment benefits this year, but the financial security of these households will depend on whether unemployment benefits will be extended or supplemented next year.
Therefore, it is imperative for Congress to ensure that the recovery reaches those who have been disproportionately affected. A targeted fiscal support can turn a K-shaped recovery into a broad-based, inclusive recovery to eliminate shortfalls in employment and provide a better outcome overall.
