On election night, Democratic campaign consultants may have been wondering, “Where did all these voters come from?” But unless the next Congress sets a legislative course over the next few months, Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi may soon be wondering, “Where did all the voters go?”
The incoming Biden administration will need to navigate an extremely rough economic path ahead. Congress has struggled to reach an agreement for another round of stimulus to provide emergency relief for families and businesses. Now they must act before the “dark winter” ahead further deteriorates the economic recovery.
Bryan Brizzi is a seasoned technology executive and transformation leader with over two decades of experience driving digital innovation in the insurance industry. As Chief Digital Officer at Crum & Forster, he leads the modernization of the Surplus & Specialty IT organization, delivering scalable, technology-driven solutions that enhance underwriting efficiency, reduce technical debt, and optimize business processes.
Rick Hirsh is a seasoned executive with 30+ years of experience leading management, sales, finance, and operations to drive growth in technology and software-enabled B2B services. He currently leads as CEO of Beneration, an insurtech platform built to cut waste and simplify the most error-prone parts of benefits billing for employers. Rick has driven organic growth, completed over a dozen acquisitions, and led four successful investor exits. Previously honored as Ernst & Young Entrepreneur of the Year, Rick and his companies have been recognized on the Inc. 500, Deloitte's Fast 50, and CRN Solution Provider 500.
Loni Winkler is the leader of the tax practice in the Great Lakes region at UHY and has over 20 years of experience in public accounting. She provides tax and business consulting services to privately held businesses and has extensive experience in individual, corporate and flow-through entity federal and multi-state taxations. She assists business owners, CFOs and controllers in developing and implementing innovative business strategies to minimize risk, maximize profits, preserve wealth, and reduce taxes.
Gross domestic product, the broadest measure of goods and services produced across the economy, decreased at an annual rate of 32.9 percent in the second quarter of 2020, followed by a surged of 33.1 percent in the third quarter, in part due to earlier rounds of fiscal stimulus when businesses were offered Economic Injury Disaster Loans and forgivable Paycheck Protection Program loans, and individuals received direct payments and extended unemployment benefits.
Economic experts believe the current surge is not enough to stop continued losses incurred by various segments of economy.
“While the strong bounce back in activity from the initial devastation of COVID-19 was heartening, the recovery thus far has been highly uneven, and the path ahead is highly uncertain,” said Federal Reserve Governor Lael Brainard in a speech last month at the Society of Professional Economists annual online conference.
This highly uneven and uncertain bounce indicates the prospect of a K-shaped recovery, where some sectors continue to recover, while others see a steady decline.
The new stimulus package must focus on the sectors facing difficulties ahead to avoid colossal damage and massive layoffs.
According to the U.S. Chamber of Commerce, approximately 4 million small businesses — 13 percent of America’s 31 million smallest employers — have now exhausted their PPP loans, and many face permanent closure without further assistance.
According to the National Restaurant Association, the restaurant industry will lose $240 billion. U.S airlines may be forced to furlough 75,000 pilots, flight attendants, mechanics and other workers by the end of 2020 if Congress doesn’t act.
States and municipalities are now on verge of extreme shortfalls due to declines in tax revenues and rises in additional costs. Local governments that fund and operate public school systems will need more funding. “The average school district will face $1.8 million, or $485 per student, in additional costs for disinfectants, personal protective equipment and other preparations to bring students into classrooms this year,” according to the Association of School Business Officials.
The Federal Reserve’s Survey of Consumer Finances indicates that cash-strained households will continue to suffer as a result of continued unemployment and reduced working hours. The CARES Act did support these households either through direct payments or enhanced unemployment benefits this year, but the financial security of these households will depend on whether unemployment benefits will be extended or supplemented next year.
Therefore, it is imperative for Congress to ensure that the recovery reaches those who have been disproportionately affected. A targeted fiscal support can turn a K-shaped recovery into a broad-based, inclusive recovery to eliminate shortfalls in employment and provide a better outcome overall.
