On election night, Democratic campaign consultants may have been wondering, “Where did all these voters come from?” But unless the next Congress sets a legislative course over the next few months, Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi may soon be wondering, “Where did all the voters go?”
The incoming Biden administration will need to navigate an extremely rough economic path ahead. Congress has struggled to reach an agreement for another round of stimulus to provide emergency relief for families and businesses. Now they must act before the “dark winter” ahead further deteriorates the economic recovery.
Adrienne Penta is the national head of wealth management at SCS Financial.
Previously, she served as principal of private banking and executive director of the Brown Brothers Harriman Center for Women & Wealth. She led the creation of the CW&W, which supports women as they create and manage wealth and seeks to create a dynamic and inclusive environment where women can engage in conversations about wealth, family and values. She also oversaw private banking marketing and sales enablement.
Kerri Mast is a principal with extensive experience advising business owners and families of generational wealth at Brown Brothers Harriman.
She helps clients achieve their goals relating to estate planning, philanthropy, business succession, and tax minimization. As a national leader of the Philanthropic Advisory practice, Kerri works to create an environment where families can engage in conversations about wealth, values, legacy and impact.
Michael Hickman is CEO and CFO of Exactera, where he manages the company's financial planning and strategic direction. Before joining Exactera, Hickman was the CFO at the global performance-marketing marketplace Perform[cb], where he championed the company's financial strategy and helped increase organic profitability markedly. Hickman oversaw multiple acquisitions and was instrumental in selling Perform[cb] to Beringer Capital in April 2021. A CPA with more than 25 years of leadership experience at companies including Deloitte, MetLife, Roper Technologies, and Switch and Data, Hickman has navigated acquisitions, dispositions, debt financing, corporate consolidations, financial planning and analysis, valuations, SEC Reporting, technical accounting, and system implementation and project management. He holds a master's degree from the University of Florida.
Gross domestic product, the broadest measure of goods and services produced across the economy, decreased at an annual rate of 32.9 percent in the second quarter of 2020, followed by a surged of 33.1 percent in the third quarter, in part due to earlier rounds of fiscal stimulus when businesses were offered Economic Injury Disaster Loans and forgivable Paycheck Protection Program loans, and individuals received direct payments and extended unemployment benefits.
Economic experts believe the current surge is not enough to stop continued losses incurred by various segments of economy.
“While the strong bounce back in activity from the initial devastation of COVID-19 was heartening, the recovery thus far has been highly uneven, and the path ahead is highly uncertain,” said Federal Reserve Governor Lael Brainard in a speech last month at the Society of Professional Economists annual online conference.
This highly uneven and uncertain bounce indicates the prospect of a K-shaped recovery, where some sectors continue to recover, while others see a steady decline.
The new stimulus package must focus on the sectors facing difficulties ahead to avoid colossal damage and massive layoffs.
According to the U.S. Chamber of Commerce, approximately 4 million small businesses — 13 percent of America’s 31 million smallest employers — have now exhausted their PPP loans, and many face permanent closure without further assistance.
According to the National Restaurant Association, the restaurant industry will lose $240 billion. U.S airlines may be forced to furlough 75,000 pilots, flight attendants, mechanics and other workers by the end of 2020 if Congress doesn’t act.
States and municipalities are now on verge of extreme shortfalls due to declines in tax revenues and rises in additional costs. Local governments that fund and operate public school systems will need more funding. “The average school district will face $1.8 million, or $485 per student, in additional costs for disinfectants, personal protective equipment and other preparations to bring students into classrooms this year,” according to the Association of School Business Officials.
The Federal Reserve’s Survey of Consumer Finances indicates that cash-strained households will continue to suffer as a result of continued unemployment and reduced working hours. The CARES Act did support these households either through direct payments or enhanced unemployment benefits this year, but the financial security of these households will depend on whether unemployment benefits will be extended or supplemented next year.
Therefore, it is imperative for Congress to ensure that the recovery reaches those who have been disproportionately affected. A targeted fiscal support can turn a K-shaped recovery into a broad-based, inclusive recovery to eliminate shortfalls in employment and provide a better outcome overall.
