On election night, Democratic campaign consultants may have been wondering, “Where did all these voters come from?” But unless the next Congress sets a legislative course over the next few months, Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi may soon be wondering, “Where did all the voters go?”
The incoming Biden administration will need to navigate an extremely rough economic path ahead. Congress has struggled to reach an agreement for another round of stimulus to provide emergency relief for families and businesses. Now they must act before the “dark winter” ahead further deteriorates the economic recovery.
Joe David is the founder of Nephos Group and Myna, the leading global crypto accounting experts, supporting entrepreneurs and business owners to take control of their finances whilst gaining insights into their business and financial operations.
Tom Neill was managing shareholder of Finney, Neill & Co. His 40-plus years in public accounting primarily focused on assurance and attest services as well as financial statement preparation and business consulting experience in a large variety of industries. His experience also includes working with business and individual tax matters. He also teaches continuing education courses in regulatory ethics.
He is a member of the AICPA's National Pipeline Advisory Group; current chair of the AICPA Uniform Accountancy Act Committee; and a member of the NASBA Peer Review Compliance Committee. He spent nine years on the Washington State Board of Accountancy (including two years as board chair); and is a past-member of the NASBA Ethics and Professional Issues Committee, a past member of the AICPA Professional Ethics Executive Committee, and past president of the Washington Society of CPAs. He graduated from the University of Washington in 1980 and received his CPA license in 1983.
Denise M. Tyson is the CEO and founder of Schaefer City Technologies. Tyson is a financial and operational management executive with extensive experience in the insurance industry, including insurtech startups, mergers/acquisitions, reorganizations, and financially challenging situations. She has held C-level positions with multiple insurance companies since 2000. She was the founder of Simplicity, Inc. an insurtech startup focused on pay-as-you-go personal auto insurance; the president of Go Insurance Company, part of a fully integrated insurtech organization; and the first EVP and CFO of Doma (fka States Title, Inc.) an insurtech company transforming the title industry.
Tyson started her finance and accounting career in public accounting in New York City working for KPMG and went on to work with PwC in Los Angeles as a Senior Manager leading their Financial Services team before launching into the insurance and insurtech industries. Tyson is a Certified Public Accountant. She holds a Bachelor of Science in Accountancy from Villanova University and an MBA from the UCLA Anderson School of Management.
Gross domestic product, the broadest measure of goods and services produced across the economy, decreased at an annual rate of 32.9 percent in the second quarter of 2020, followed by a surged of 33.1 percent in the third quarter, in part due to earlier rounds of fiscal stimulus when businesses were offered Economic Injury Disaster Loans and forgivable Paycheck Protection Program loans, and individuals received direct payments and extended unemployment benefits.
Economic experts believe the current surge is not enough to stop continued losses incurred by various segments of economy.
“While the strong bounce back in activity from the initial devastation of COVID-19 was heartening, the recovery thus far has been highly uneven, and the path ahead is highly uncertain,” said Federal Reserve Governor Lael Brainard in a speech last month at the Society of Professional Economists annual online conference.
This highly uneven and uncertain bounce indicates the prospect of a K-shaped recovery, where some sectors continue to recover, while others see a steady decline.
The new stimulus package must focus on the sectors facing difficulties ahead to avoid colossal damage and massive layoffs.
According to the U.S. Chamber of Commerce, approximately 4 million small businesses — 13 percent of America’s 31 million smallest employers — have now exhausted their PPP loans, and many face permanent closure without further assistance.
According to the National Restaurant Association, the restaurant industry will lose $240 billion. U.S airlines may be forced to furlough 75,000 pilots, flight attendants, mechanics and other workers by the end of 2020 if Congress doesn’t act.
States and municipalities are now on verge of extreme shortfalls due to declines in tax revenues and rises in additional costs. Local governments that fund and operate public school systems will need more funding. “The average school district will face $1.8 million, or $485 per student, in additional costs for disinfectants, personal protective equipment and other preparations to bring students into classrooms this year,” according to the Association of School Business Officials.
The Federal Reserve’s Survey of Consumer Finances indicates that cash-strained households will continue to suffer as a result of continued unemployment and reduced working hours. The CARES Act did support these households either through direct payments or enhanced unemployment benefits this year, but the financial security of these households will depend on whether unemployment benefits will be extended or supplemented next year.
Therefore, it is imperative for Congress to ensure that the recovery reaches those who have been disproportionately affected. A targeted fiscal support can turn a K-shaped recovery into a broad-based, inclusive recovery to eliminate shortfalls in employment and provide a better outcome overall.
