On election night, Democratic campaign consultants may have been wondering, “Where did all these voters come from?” But unless the next Congress sets a legislative course over the next few months, Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi may soon be wondering, “Where did all the voters go?”
The incoming Biden administration will need to navigate an extremely rough economic path ahead. Congress has struggled to reach an agreement for another round of stimulus to provide emergency relief for families and businesses. Now they must act before the “dark winter” ahead further deteriorates the economic recovery.
Shawn Degnan leads Cross Country Consulting's National Accounting Advisory practice and the Washington, D.C. office, where he is responsible for the overall strategy, client delivery and people, as well as practice and business development. In this role, he guides service delivery for private and public companies, ranging from growth-oriented venture capital and private equity backed businesses to Fortune 500 companies. He brings more than 20 years of experience advising clients on complex technical accounting issues and strategic transactions, including initial public offerings, mergers and acquisitions, carve-outs, and spinoffs. Prior to joining Cross Country, he spent nine years at MorganFranklin Consulting as managing director and commercial market leader guiding all aspects of the firm's commercial practice. He spent the first 12 years of his career with EY in its global capital markets and assurance practices leading delivery of both audit and advisory engagements for large, global SEC registrants and private companies.
Manish Khetan is president of strategic accounts at Xceedance, with 15 years of experience in transforming insurance operations. He leads the North America business and is responsible for business growth and service delivery at Xceedance. He focuses on identifying growth drivers, business planning, capability development, client relations, organizational learning and development, and alternate channels of expansion, including partnerships and acquisitions.
James Huang is a senior in accounting and president of the Beta Alpha Psi chapter at the University of Memphis.
Gross domestic product, the broadest measure of goods and services produced across the economy, decreased at an annual rate of 32.9 percent in the second quarter of 2020, followed by a surged of 33.1 percent in the third quarter, in part due to earlier rounds of fiscal stimulus when businesses were offered Economic Injury Disaster Loans and forgivable Paycheck Protection Program loans, and individuals received direct payments and extended unemployment benefits.
Economic experts believe the current surge is not enough to stop continued losses incurred by various segments of economy.
“While the strong bounce back in activity from the initial devastation of COVID-19 was heartening, the recovery thus far has been highly uneven, and the path ahead is highly uncertain,” said Federal Reserve Governor Lael Brainard in a speech last month at the Society of Professional Economists annual online conference.
This highly uneven and uncertain bounce indicates the prospect of a K-shaped recovery, where some sectors continue to recover, while others see a steady decline.
The new stimulus package must focus on the sectors facing difficulties ahead to avoid colossal damage and massive layoffs.
According to the U.S. Chamber of Commerce, approximately 4 million small businesses — 13 percent of America’s 31 million smallest employers — have now exhausted their PPP loans, and many face permanent closure without further assistance.
According to the National Restaurant Association, the restaurant industry will lose $240 billion. U.S airlines may be forced to furlough 75,000 pilots, flight attendants, mechanics and other workers by the end of 2020 if Congress doesn’t act.
States and municipalities are now on verge of extreme shortfalls due to declines in tax revenues and rises in additional costs. Local governments that fund and operate public school systems will need more funding. “The average school district will face $1.8 million, or $485 per student, in additional costs for disinfectants, personal protective equipment and other preparations to bring students into classrooms this year,” according to the Association of School Business Officials.
The Federal Reserve’s Survey of Consumer Finances indicates that cash-strained households will continue to suffer as a result of continued unemployment and reduced working hours. The CARES Act did support these households either through direct payments or enhanced unemployment benefits this year, but the financial security of these households will depend on whether unemployment benefits will be extended or supplemented next year.
Therefore, it is imperative for Congress to ensure that the recovery reaches those who have been disproportionately affected. A targeted fiscal support can turn a K-shaped recovery into a broad-based, inclusive recovery to eliminate shortfalls in employment and provide a better outcome overall.
