The next stimulus should aim for a broad-based, inclusive recovery

Economic experts believe the current surge is not enough to stop continued losses incurred by various segments of economy.

On election night, Democratic campaign consultants may have been wondering, “Where did all these voters come from?” But unless the next Congress sets a legislative course over the next few months, Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi may soon be wondering, “Where did all the voters go?”

The incoming Biden administration will need to navigate an extremely rough economic path ahead. Congress has struggled to reach an agreement for another round of stimulus to provide emergency relief for families and businesses. Now they must act before the “dark winter” ahead further deteriorates the economic recovery.

CORONAVIRUS IMPACT: ADDITIONAL COVERAGE

Yuval Brisker is the CEO and co-founder of Alviere, an embedded finance company. Prior to Alviere, he co-founded TOA Technologies, a SaaS solutions firm that was acquired by Oracle in 2014. Before founding TOA, Yuval spent years growing and managing technology ventures.

Damith brings deep technical and executive experience to his role as Loadsure CTO, where he's responsible for strategic technology planning, innovation, and, ultimately, delivery of Loadsure's insurtech platform. In addition, Damith provides a 360-degree view of available technology capabilities, informing strategically sound business decisions by the leadership team.
Prior to joining Loadsure, Damith served as 30dB CTO. There, he architected and built a highly scalable social sentiment engine that delivered real-time insight into both public opinion and what drives it.
It is within the multinational conglomerate, IAC Applications, that Damith grew from senior engineer to technology executive. His responsibilities spanned technology strategy and architecture; business plan development; management; reorganization; and funding of teams across IAC business units, the likes of Pronto, Mindspark, and Ask.com.
As IAC Applications' Vice President of Data, Damith took on broad responsibility for everything from shared data and information strategy to the website, search engine, and its underlying technologies.

Michael Stuart is a behavioral healthcare leader with more than 30 years' diverse experience, ranging from executive management in large behavioral healthcare systems to teaching daily living skills to autistic children. Mike has worked with tens of thousands of people, with a focus on actionable, tangible steps to integrate health and wellness into everyday life. He specializes in teaching the importance of developing and utilizing a strong mindset to address and overcome health and wellness challenges, including addiction and mental well-being. As the Executive Director at AllOne Health EAP, he leads the team in delivering EAP and whole health benefits to organizations, employees and their family members.

 

Gross domestic product, the broadest measure of goods and services produced across the economy, decreased at an annual rate of 32.9 percent in the second quarter of 2020, followed by a surged of 33.1 percent in the third quarter, in part due to earlier rounds of fiscal stimulus when businesses were offered Economic Injury Disaster Loans and forgivable Paycheck Protection Program loans, and individuals received direct payments and extended unemployment benefits.

Economic experts believe the current surge is not enough to stop continued losses incurred by various segments of economy.

“While the strong bounce back in activity from the initial devastation of COVID-19 was heartening, the recovery thus far has been highly uneven, and the path ahead is highly uncertain,” said Federal Reserve Governor Lael Brainard in a speech last month at the Society of Professional Economists annual online conference.

This highly uneven and uncertain bounce indicates the prospect of a K-shaped recovery, where some sectors continue to recover, while others see a steady decline.

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The new stimulus package must focus on the sectors facing difficulties ahead to avoid colossal damage and massive layoffs.

According to the U.S. Chamber of Commerce, approximately 4 million small businesses — 13 percent of America’s 31 million smallest employers — have now exhausted their PPP loans, and many face permanent closure without further assistance.

According to the National Restaurant Association, the restaurant industry will lose $240 billion. U.S airlines may be forced to furlough 75,000 pilots, flight attendants, mechanics and other workers by the end of 2020 if Congress doesn’t act.

States and municipalities are now on verge of extreme shortfalls due to declines in tax revenues and rises in additional costs. Local governments that fund and operate public school systems will need more funding. “The average school district will face $1.8 million, or $485 per student, in additional costs for disinfectants, personal protective equipment and other preparations to bring students into classrooms this year,” according to the Association of School Business Officials.

The Federal Reserve’s Survey of Consumer Finances indicates that cash-strained households will continue to suffer as a result of continued unemployment and reduced working hours. The CARES Act did support these households either through direct payments or enhanced unemployment benefits this year, but the financial security of these households will depend on whether unemployment benefits will be extended or supplemented next year.

Therefore, it is imperative for Congress to ensure that the recovery reaches those who have been disproportionately affected. A targeted fiscal support can turn a K-shaped recovery into a broad-based, inclusive recovery to eliminate shortfalls in employment and provide a better outcome overall.

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