On election night, Democratic campaign consultants may have been wondering, “Where did all these voters come from?” But unless the next Congress sets a legislative course over the next few months, Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi may soon be wondering, “Where did all the voters go?”
The incoming Biden administration will need to navigate an extremely rough economic path ahead. Congress has struggled to reach an agreement for another round of stimulus to provide emergency relief for families and businesses. Now they must act before the “dark winter” ahead further deteriorates the economic recovery.
Rama Sreenivasan is co-founder and CEO of Blitzz, a live, app-free remote video support and inspection platform. Sreenivasan has led the company through its initial inception, launch, and subsequent growth to several million video support minutes per month. Major customers include BMW, Sealy, Fedex, and Rogers telecommunications.
Before founding Blitzz in 2017, Rama spent several years working as a scientist and educator. His biggest joy comes from helping others solve their problems and he is passionate about finding effective ways to disseminate knowledge. Sreenivasan has a PhD and MS in chemical engineering from the University of Maryland, College Park. He also did his post doctoral research at MIT in Cambridge, Boston.
Steve is a partner in PwC's Risk Modeling Services practice. He leads PwC's US Climate Risk Modeling team and has more than 24 years of experience in actuarial risk and financial modeling. Steve's team is comprised of actuaries, financial analysts, PhD climate scientists, data scientists, geospatial engineers, and other climate risk specialists. His approach blends climate science with geospatial analysis and financial modeling to help clients identify, measure, and manage climate risk exposure. Projects include climate change risk assessments and quantification for both physical and transition risk, emissions optimization, and other financial and risk modeling projects. Steve has a degree in Mathematics from Saint Joseph's University in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania. He is a fellow of the Society of Actuaries and a Chartered Enterprise Risk Analyst.
Osho Jha is a co-founder of Arbol currently serving as its Chief Data Scientist. He is also a founding partner of dClimate, the first decentralized climate information ecosystem. As Chief Data Scientist at Arbol, he oversees the development of data-driven parametric products and climate risk solutions. Osho comes to Arbol with over a decade of experience as a product-focused data scientist. His experience ranges from cutting edge NLP research for DARPA resulting in a speech-to-speech translation system deployed by the U.S. military to using exhaust data for trading global equities.
Gross domestic product, the broadest measure of goods and services produced across the economy, decreased at an annual rate of 32.9 percent in the second quarter of 2020, followed by a surged of 33.1 percent in the third quarter, in part due to earlier rounds of fiscal stimulus when businesses were offered Economic Injury Disaster Loans and forgivable Paycheck Protection Program loans, and individuals received direct payments and extended unemployment benefits.
Economic experts believe the current surge is not enough to stop continued losses incurred by various segments of economy.
“While the strong bounce back in activity from the initial devastation of COVID-19 was heartening, the recovery thus far has been highly uneven, and the path ahead is highly uncertain,” said Federal Reserve Governor Lael Brainard in a speech last month at the Society of Professional Economists annual online conference.
This highly uneven and uncertain bounce indicates the prospect of a K-shaped recovery, where some sectors continue to recover, while others see a steady decline.
The new stimulus package must focus on the sectors facing difficulties ahead to avoid colossal damage and massive layoffs.
According to the U.S. Chamber of Commerce, approximately 4 million small businesses — 13 percent of America’s 31 million smallest employers — have now exhausted their PPP loans, and many face permanent closure without further assistance.
According to the National Restaurant Association, the restaurant industry will lose $240 billion. U.S airlines may be forced to furlough 75,000 pilots, flight attendants, mechanics and other workers by the end of 2020 if Congress doesn’t act.
States and municipalities are now on verge of extreme shortfalls due to declines in tax revenues and rises in additional costs. Local governments that fund and operate public school systems will need more funding. “The average school district will face $1.8 million, or $485 per student, in additional costs for disinfectants, personal protective equipment and other preparations to bring students into classrooms this year,” according to the Association of School Business Officials.
The Federal Reserve’s Survey of Consumer Finances indicates that cash-strained households will continue to suffer as a result of continued unemployment and reduced working hours. The CARES Act did support these households either through direct payments or enhanced unemployment benefits this year, but the financial security of these households will depend on whether unemployment benefits will be extended or supplemented next year.
Therefore, it is imperative for Congress to ensure that the recovery reaches those who have been disproportionately affected. A targeted fiscal support can turn a K-shaped recovery into a broad-based, inclusive recovery to eliminate shortfalls in employment and provide a better outcome overall.
