On election night, Democratic campaign consultants may have been wondering, “Where did all these voters come from?” But unless the next Congress sets a legislative course over the next few months, Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi may soon be wondering, “Where did all the voters go?”
The incoming Biden administration will need to navigate an extremely rough economic path ahead. Congress has struggled to reach an agreement for another round of stimulus to provide emergency relief for families and businesses. Now they must act before the “dark winter” ahead further deteriorates the economic recovery.
David Wieland is the founder and CEO of Realized, a real estate wealthtech firm that provides investment property wealth management for investors.
Brett Miller is chief financial officer at Restaurant365, where he is responsible for financial and strategic functions including accounting, audit, treasury, corporate finance and corporate strategy. He also leads all IT-related activities. Prior to joining R365, he led the M&A and global strategy teams for a Fortune 500 manufacturing company. He received his CPA license while a member of the transaction services team at KPMG.
Dr. Wayne Jenkins is an accomplished physician and executive with a proven track record of patient-centered, revenue-driven results. Over the course of his career, he's consistently transformed large, complex healthcare systems into market leaders that deliver quality and value in a dynamically changing environment. Prior to Centivo, he was the Chief Clinical Officer for Population Health at Vanderbilt University Medical Center, where he provided clinical oversight of value-based care delivery and completed the formation of Medicare Accountable Care Organizations (ACOs). Before his time at Vanderbilt University Medical Center, he served as the Senior Vice President and Chief Strategy Officer of Orlando Health, as well as President of Orlando Health Physician Partners. Previously, Wayne was the chief of radiation oncology and then subsequently the medical director for the Florida affiliate of M.D. Anderson Cancer Center, a subsidiary of Orlando Health, Inc. Wayne holds a BA from the University of Tennessee, an MD from Vanderbilt University School of Medicine, and a Master's of Health Policy and Administration from Johns Hopkins University. He is board-certified in radiation oncology and was recognized in Best Doctors in America annually from 1994 to 2015. He's published 18 scientific articles and is often sought out to speak at state and national conferences.
Gross domestic product, the broadest measure of goods and services produced across the economy, decreased at an annual rate of 32.9 percent in the second quarter of 2020, followed by a surged of 33.1 percent in the third quarter, in part due to earlier rounds of fiscal stimulus when businesses were offered Economic Injury Disaster Loans and forgivable Paycheck Protection Program loans, and individuals received direct payments and extended unemployment benefits.
Economic experts believe the current surge is not enough to stop continued losses incurred by various segments of economy.
“While the strong bounce back in activity from the initial devastation of COVID-19 was heartening, the recovery thus far has been highly uneven, and the path ahead is highly uncertain,” said Federal Reserve Governor Lael Brainard in a speech last month at the Society of Professional Economists annual online conference.
This highly uneven and uncertain bounce indicates the prospect of a K-shaped recovery, where some sectors continue to recover, while others see a steady decline.
The new stimulus package must focus on the sectors facing difficulties ahead to avoid colossal damage and massive layoffs.
According to the U.S. Chamber of Commerce, approximately 4 million small businesses — 13 percent of America’s 31 million smallest employers — have now exhausted their PPP loans, and many face permanent closure without further assistance.
According to the National Restaurant Association, the restaurant industry will lose $240 billion. U.S airlines may be forced to furlough 75,000 pilots, flight attendants, mechanics and other workers by the end of 2020 if Congress doesn’t act.
States and municipalities are now on verge of extreme shortfalls due to declines in tax revenues and rises in additional costs. Local governments that fund and operate public school systems will need more funding. “The average school district will face $1.8 million, or $485 per student, in additional costs for disinfectants, personal protective equipment and other preparations to bring students into classrooms this year,” according to the Association of School Business Officials.
The Federal Reserve’s Survey of Consumer Finances indicates that cash-strained households will continue to suffer as a result of continued unemployment and reduced working hours. The CARES Act did support these households either through direct payments or enhanced unemployment benefits this year, but the financial security of these households will depend on whether unemployment benefits will be extended or supplemented next year.
Therefore, it is imperative for Congress to ensure that the recovery reaches those who have been disproportionately affected. A targeted fiscal support can turn a K-shaped recovery into a broad-based, inclusive recovery to eliminate shortfalls in employment and provide a better outcome overall.
