On election night, Democratic campaign consultants may have been wondering, “Where did all these voters come from?” But unless the next Congress sets a legislative course over the next few months, Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi may soon be wondering, “Where did all the voters go?”
The incoming Biden administration will need to navigate an extremely rough economic path ahead. Congress has struggled to reach an agreement for another round of stimulus to provide emergency relief for families and businesses. Now they must act before the “dark winter” ahead further deteriorates the economic recovery.
Chris Cooksey is the senior director of advanced analytics at Guidewire Software, the leading provider of P&C Insurance core operating systems. He previously served as Chief Actuary at EagleEye Analytics and spent more than a dozen years at Nationwide Insurance as a research director and pricing analyst.
Keith is a principal analyst in Celent's North American insurance practice. He has extensive industry experience and is a seasoned expert in process automation, business transformation, back-office operations, and mergers and acquisitions for both property/casualty and life/health/annuities. His previous roles also include Vice President of Research and Consulting at Novarica, Practice Partner–Digital Success at MVP Advisory, CIO/COO of Futurity First Insurance Group; AVP of Distribution Systems and Field Technology for Mass Mutual; CIO of Trumbull Services, a wholly owned subsidiary of The Hartford Insurance Group; Head Principal Consultant for Life and Annuities in North America at HCL Technologies; and CIO of FPI, a software development and service company.
Keith most recently has focused his authoring on the topic of process automation including robotic process automation (RPA) and artifical intelligence (AI). He has assisted a number of insurance organizations with strategic technology roadmap development, go-to-market strategy, core platform replacement selection and IT and operational due diligence on acquisition opportunities. Keith has authored a number of industry artifacts and blogged on a number of industry topics with focus on innovation and digital transformation. Keith speaks annually at insurance industry events, such as Insurtech Connect and DIGIN.
Jetpack Workflow CEO and business evangelist David Cristello founded Jetpack in 2016 with the vision to help customers deliver their best work— from developing software solutions that help professionals solve their painful workflow problems, to personalized and fun onboarding and training, to curating helpful and informative resources through the company's podcast and blog. The company now serves over 7,000 customers in more than 18 countries, which collectively completed over 5 million client projects on time.
Gross domestic product, the broadest measure of goods and services produced across the economy, decreased at an annual rate of 32.9 percent in the second quarter of 2020, followed by a surged of 33.1 percent in the third quarter, in part due to earlier rounds of fiscal stimulus when businesses were offered Economic Injury Disaster Loans and forgivable Paycheck Protection Program loans, and individuals received direct payments and extended unemployment benefits.
Economic experts believe the current surge is not enough to stop continued losses incurred by various segments of economy.
“While the strong bounce back in activity from the initial devastation of COVID-19 was heartening, the recovery thus far has been highly uneven, and the path ahead is highly uncertain,” said Federal Reserve Governor Lael Brainard in a speech last month at the Society of Professional Economists annual online conference.
This highly uneven and uncertain bounce indicates the prospect of a K-shaped recovery, where some sectors continue to recover, while others see a steady decline.
The new stimulus package must focus on the sectors facing difficulties ahead to avoid colossal damage and massive layoffs.
According to the U.S. Chamber of Commerce, approximately 4 million small businesses — 13 percent of America’s 31 million smallest employers — have now exhausted their PPP loans, and many face permanent closure without further assistance.
According to the National Restaurant Association, the restaurant industry will lose $240 billion. U.S airlines may be forced to furlough 75,000 pilots, flight attendants, mechanics and other workers by the end of 2020 if Congress doesn’t act.
States and municipalities are now on verge of extreme shortfalls due to declines in tax revenues and rises in additional costs. Local governments that fund and operate public school systems will need more funding. “The average school district will face $1.8 million, or $485 per student, in additional costs for disinfectants, personal protective equipment and other preparations to bring students into classrooms this year,” according to the Association of School Business Officials.
The Federal Reserve’s Survey of Consumer Finances indicates that cash-strained households will continue to suffer as a result of continued unemployment and reduced working hours. The CARES Act did support these households either through direct payments or enhanced unemployment benefits this year, but the financial security of these households will depend on whether unemployment benefits will be extended or supplemented next year.
Therefore, it is imperative for Congress to ensure that the recovery reaches those who have been disproportionately affected. A targeted fiscal support can turn a K-shaped recovery into a broad-based, inclusive recovery to eliminate shortfalls in employment and provide a better outcome overall.
