The next stimulus should aim for a broad-based, inclusive recovery

Economic experts believe the current surge is not enough to stop continued losses incurred by various segments of economy.

On election night, Democratic campaign consultants may have been wondering, “Where did all these voters come from?” But unless the next Congress sets a legislative course over the next few months, Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi may soon be wondering, “Where did all the voters go?”

The incoming Biden administration will need to navigate an extremely rough economic path ahead. Congress has struggled to reach an agreement for another round of stimulus to provide emergency relief for families and businesses. Now they must act before the “dark winter” ahead further deteriorates the economic recovery.

CORONAVIRUS IMPACT: ADDITIONAL COVERAGE

For more than 20 years, Stephanie has brought her passion for employee wellness to industries of all sizes. Her attention to aligning mental and physical health brought forth a much-needed alignment of wellness and Employee Assistance Program (EAP) services for the clients she has served. She combines fourteen years of EAP experience with a background in Human Resources, coaching and wellness program operations.

Stephanie is a Duquesne University graduate with a Bachelor of Science in Organization Behavior and Leadership, she holds a certificate in Human Resources Management from Robert Morris University and holds a number of wellness certifications, including a Holistic Fitness Specialist and Lifestyle Wellness Coaching certification from NETA and Certified Corporate Wellness Coach (CCWC) from The Spencer Institute. Stephanie has conducted hundreds of speaking engagements and presently serves as the Director of Wellness for AllOne Health.

Michele Harbaugh has been a human resource professional for more than 20 years and currently manages health and benefits for Yoga Joint, which operates eight yoga studios across South Florida. Michele's professional dream is for employees to see human resources as a tool for them, not the dreaded "principal's office". She does this through actively engaging the team, having open and honest conversations, and interpreting policies into everyday language. She is on a mission to put the human back in human resources, help employees thrive at their workplace, and contribute to the company's overall growth.

Dr. Dave Rengachary is Senior Vice President and Head of Underwriting for U.S. Mortality Markets at RGA Reinsurance Company, where he has served instrumental roles in setting the risk philosophy for the department, oversight of US Manual development, leadership roles across numerous USMM underwriting initiatives and regulatory engagements.  He previously served as Chief Medical Director for RGA

Prior to joining RGA in 2013, he was a general neurologist in practice at Missouri Baptist Medical Center where he also served as medical director for their Primary Stroke Center.  Dr. Rengachary attended the Honors Program in Medical Education at Northwestern University. He then completed an adult neurology residency at Washington University followed by a fellowship in Clinical Neurophysiology. He serves on the board of directors of Memory Home Care Solutions and Oasis, non-profit organizations respectively dedicated to Alzheimer's caregiver support and healthy aging.  He has obtained board certification in neurology, insurance medicine,  FALU, and FLMI. Dr. Rengachary recently received his executive M.B.A. through the program at the Olin Business School at Washington University.

In 2021 Dr. Rengachary accepted a position as chair of ACLI's Risk Classification Committee. He is Past-President of the Midwestern Medical Directors Association; current Deputy Director of the Longer Life Foundation; Medical Consultant for the Academy of Life Underwriting; and a past member

Gross domestic product, the broadest measure of goods and services produced across the economy, decreased at an annual rate of 32.9 percent in the second quarter of 2020, followed by a surged of 33.1 percent in the third quarter, in part due to earlier rounds of fiscal stimulus when businesses were offered Economic Injury Disaster Loans and forgivable Paycheck Protection Program loans, and individuals received direct payments and extended unemployment benefits.

Economic experts believe the current surge is not enough to stop continued losses incurred by various segments of economy.

“While the strong bounce back in activity from the initial devastation of COVID-19 was heartening, the recovery thus far has been highly uneven, and the path ahead is highly uncertain,” said Federal Reserve Governor Lael Brainard in a speech last month at the Society of Professional Economists annual online conference.

This highly uneven and uncertain bounce indicates the prospect of a K-shaped recovery, where some sectors continue to recover, while others see a steady decline.

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The new stimulus package must focus on the sectors facing difficulties ahead to avoid colossal damage and massive layoffs.

According to the U.S. Chamber of Commerce, approximately 4 million small businesses — 13 percent of America’s 31 million smallest employers — have now exhausted their PPP loans, and many face permanent closure without further assistance.

According to the National Restaurant Association, the restaurant industry will lose $240 billion. U.S airlines may be forced to furlough 75,000 pilots, flight attendants, mechanics and other workers by the end of 2020 if Congress doesn’t act.

States and municipalities are now on verge of extreme shortfalls due to declines in tax revenues and rises in additional costs. Local governments that fund and operate public school systems will need more funding. “The average school district will face $1.8 million, or $485 per student, in additional costs for disinfectants, personal protective equipment and other preparations to bring students into classrooms this year,” according to the Association of School Business Officials.

The Federal Reserve’s Survey of Consumer Finances indicates that cash-strained households will continue to suffer as a result of continued unemployment and reduced working hours. The CARES Act did support these households either through direct payments or enhanced unemployment benefits this year, but the financial security of these households will depend on whether unemployment benefits will be extended or supplemented next year.

Therefore, it is imperative for Congress to ensure that the recovery reaches those who have been disproportionately affected. A targeted fiscal support can turn a K-shaped recovery into a broad-based, inclusive recovery to eliminate shortfalls in employment and provide a better outcome overall.

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