On election night, Democratic campaign consultants may have been wondering, “Where did all these voters come from?” But unless the next Congress sets a legislative course over the next few months, Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi may soon be wondering, “Where did all the voters go?”
The incoming Biden administration will need to navigate an extremely rough economic path ahead. Congress has struggled to reach an agreement for another round of stimulus to provide emergency relief for families and businesses. Now they must act before the “dark winter” ahead further deteriorates the economic recovery.
Deb Smallwood, Senior Partner at Strategy Meets Action, a ReSource Pro Company, is widely recognized as an industry thought leader who is known for her “big strategic thinking with pragmatic approaches to transformation.” Deb challenges the status quo of insurance and influences the industry to reimage the business of insurance for the digital connected world.
Deb’s passion is to advise carriers and MGA’s to create transformation strategies and plans by bringing clarity to the possibilities of change and innovation. For over 30 years, Deb has helped hundreds of clients transform their businesses driving high business value and success. Deb’s deep expertise is commercial lines underwriting transformation and how best to leverage customer experience, digital enablement and transformational technologies and data.
Prior to launching Strategy Meets Action, Deb held a variety of leadership roles including VP of the insurance practice at Tower Group, Chief Transformation Officer (CIO) at Insurance Company of the West (ICW), Partner at KPMG LLP, and Head of Commercial Lines Application Development & Maintenance at Liberty Mutual.
Deb is often asked to contribute to major insurance publications and is also a frequent keynote speaker at leading industry conferences.
Edward Webb currently serves as BPM’s advisory partner, offering over 35 years of experience in consulting and financial management, including specific experience in transaction advisory services for both healthy and stressed companies. A published author and speaker, he currently leads the Corporate Finance Consulting Group at BPM and sits on the firm's Management Committee. He holds a doctorate in business administration with an emphasis in ownership transition from Temple University, as well as an MBA with a focus on finance from Indiana University. He was born and raised in suburban Philadelphia before moving his family to California. He may be reached at ewebb@bpmcpa.com.
John Beal is Senior Vice President, Analytics, Insurance, for LexisNexis Risk Solutions. He is responsible for leading the company’s insurance analytics and modeling products and services. With more than 20 years of experience in data and analytics across the insurance and financial services industries and market-leading innovations, Beal and his team develop incremental predictive uses of existing data and processes with a strong focus on developing personal and commercial lines credit-based loss models as well as new non-credit industry solutions. Prior to LexisNexis, Beal held key leadership roles at First Union National Bank in Charlotte, where he was Vice President, Credit and Market Analytics within the Quantitative Analysis Group, and at Citicorp Bankcard, where he served as Assistant Vice President, Credit Policy Department.
Gross domestic product, the broadest measure of goods and services produced across the economy, decreased at an annual rate of 32.9 percent in the second quarter of 2020, followed by a surged of 33.1 percent in the third quarter, in part due to earlier rounds of fiscal stimulus when businesses were offered Economic Injury Disaster Loans and forgivable Paycheck Protection Program loans, and individuals received direct payments and extended unemployment benefits.
Economic experts believe the current surge is not enough to stop continued losses incurred by various segments of economy.
“While the strong bounce back in activity from the initial devastation of COVID-19 was heartening, the recovery thus far has been highly uneven, and the path ahead is highly uncertain,” said Federal Reserve Governor Lael Brainard in a speech last month at the Society of Professional Economists annual online conference.
This highly uneven and uncertain bounce indicates the prospect of a K-shaped recovery, where some sectors continue to recover, while others see a steady decline.
The new stimulus package must focus on the sectors facing difficulties ahead to avoid colossal damage and massive layoffs.
According to the U.S. Chamber of Commerce, approximately 4 million small businesses — 13 percent of America’s 31 million smallest employers — have now exhausted their PPP loans, and many face permanent closure without further assistance.
According to the National Restaurant Association, the restaurant industry will lose $240 billion. U.S airlines may be forced to furlough 75,000 pilots, flight attendants, mechanics and other workers by the end of 2020 if Congress doesn’t act.
States and municipalities are now on verge of extreme shortfalls due to declines in tax revenues and rises in additional costs. Local governments that fund and operate public school systems will need more funding. “The average school district will face $1.8 million, or $485 per student, in additional costs for disinfectants, personal protective equipment and other preparations to bring students into classrooms this year,” according to the Association of School Business Officials.
The Federal Reserve’s Survey of Consumer Finances indicates that cash-strained households will continue to suffer as a result of continued unemployment and reduced working hours. The CARES Act did support these households either through direct payments or enhanced unemployment benefits this year, but the financial security of these households will depend on whether unemployment benefits will be extended or supplemented next year.
Therefore, it is imperative for Congress to ensure that the recovery reaches those who have been disproportionately affected. A targeted fiscal support can turn a K-shaped recovery into a broad-based, inclusive recovery to eliminate shortfalls in employment and provide a better outcome overall.
