On election night, Democratic campaign consultants may have been wondering, “Where did all these voters come from?” But unless the next Congress sets a legislative course over the next few months, Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi may soon be wondering, “Where did all the voters go?”
The incoming Biden administration will need to navigate an extremely rough economic path ahead. Congress has struggled to reach an agreement for another round of stimulus to provide emergency relief for families and businesses. Now they must act before the “dark winter” ahead further deteriorates the economic recovery.
Bernie Dyme is president and CEO of Perspectives LTD, a behavioral health firm committed to delivering high-quality employee assistance programs, behavioral health, and organizational consulting services.
He is passionate about ending the stigma attached to mental health ensuring that everyone in companies has full access to mental health services and also focuses on prevention and early intervention. He is an active member of more than a dozen professional and community organizations that work toward his passion of bringing resources to all employees and organizations to ensure full access to help. These include the Employee Assistance Professionals Association (EAPA), the Society of Human Resource Professionals (SHRM), and the Executives Club of Chicago. He is also the Chair of the Advisory Council of The Crown Family School of Social Work, Policy and Practice at the University of Chicago. He is the past president of the Board of Directors for the Chicago Coalition for the Homeless and is currently an active member of the Board.
Bernie is a licensed clinical social worker (LCSW). He has his master’s degree in social work from the University of Chicago.
Brandon Roberts is chief revenue officer, fitness & wellbeing for Xplor Technologies, a global platform for SMBs combining SaaS solutions with embedded payments and commerce accelerating technologies, where he leads a team of 200 commercial sales, account management and client service people across North America.
Before joining Xplor in 2020, Brandon spent eight years at Mindbody, ultimately as global director of operations. He has a B.S. in Kinesiology from California Polytechnic State University and a MBA from the University of Phoenix.
David Arkush is managing director of Public Citizen’s Climate Program and a fellow at the Roosevelt Institute.
Gross domestic product, the broadest measure of goods and services produced across the economy, decreased at an annual rate of 32.9 percent in the second quarter of 2020, followed by a surged of 33.1 percent in the third quarter, in part due to earlier rounds of fiscal stimulus when businesses were offered Economic Injury Disaster Loans and forgivable Paycheck Protection Program loans, and individuals received direct payments and extended unemployment benefits.
Economic experts believe the current surge is not enough to stop continued losses incurred by various segments of economy.
“While the strong bounce back in activity from the initial devastation of COVID-19 was heartening, the recovery thus far has been highly uneven, and the path ahead is highly uncertain,” said Federal Reserve Governor Lael Brainard in a speech last month at the Society of Professional Economists annual online conference.
This highly uneven and uncertain bounce indicates the prospect of a K-shaped recovery, where some sectors continue to recover, while others see a steady decline.
The new stimulus package must focus on the sectors facing difficulties ahead to avoid colossal damage and massive layoffs.
According to the U.S. Chamber of Commerce, approximately 4 million small businesses — 13 percent of America’s 31 million smallest employers — have now exhausted their PPP loans, and many face permanent closure without further assistance.
According to the National Restaurant Association, the restaurant industry will lose $240 billion. U.S airlines may be forced to furlough 75,000 pilots, flight attendants, mechanics and other workers by the end of 2020 if Congress doesn’t act.
States and municipalities are now on verge of extreme shortfalls due to declines in tax revenues and rises in additional costs. Local governments that fund and operate public school systems will need more funding. “The average school district will face $1.8 million, or $485 per student, in additional costs for disinfectants, personal protective equipment and other preparations to bring students into classrooms this year,” according to the Association of School Business Officials.
The Federal Reserve’s Survey of Consumer Finances indicates that cash-strained households will continue to suffer as a result of continued unemployment and reduced working hours. The CARES Act did support these households either through direct payments or enhanced unemployment benefits this year, but the financial security of these households will depend on whether unemployment benefits will be extended or supplemented next year.
Therefore, it is imperative for Congress to ensure that the recovery reaches those who have been disproportionately affected. A targeted fiscal support can turn a K-shaped recovery into a broad-based, inclusive recovery to eliminate shortfalls in employment and provide a better outcome overall.
