On election night, Democratic campaign consultants may have been wondering, “Where did all these voters come from?” But unless the next Congress sets a legislative course over the next few months, Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi may soon be wondering, “Where did all the voters go?”
The incoming Biden administration will need to navigate an extremely rough economic path ahead. Congress has struggled to reach an agreement for another round of stimulus to provide emergency relief for families and businesses. Now they must act before the “dark winter” ahead further deteriorates the economic recovery.
Nancy Burner is the founder and managing partner of Burner Law Group, P.C., a boutique law firm concentrating in the areas of elder law, estate planning, trusts and estates and real estate, serving clients from New York City to the East End of Long Island. She holds the designation of a Certified Elder Law Attorney (CELA), awarded by the National Elder Law Foundation as accredited by the American Bar Association. For 14 consecutive years, she has been named as a Super Lawyer in the field of elder law. In 2020, she was named as the Long Island Elder Law Attorney of the Year by Best Lawyers, a national publication.
Scott Taylor is CEO and & founder of Perx Health, a leading engagement platform for chronic conditions.
Peter Keating is an investigative financial journalist who has been reporting complex financial stories for more than 25 years. His work has been published recently by GQ, Inc., National Geographic, New York and Politico.
Keating was a founding member of ESPN’s Investigative Unit, where his longform projects included pioneering work that exposed for the first time how the NFL dealt with brain injuries. At ESPN, Keating was a frequent commentator on Outside the Lines and public speaker, making six appearances at the Sloan Sports Analytics Conference, and was part of teams that won three National Magazine Awards. His work has also earned 10 Journalism Awards from the New York Press Club, as well as Investigative Reporters and Editors, Deadline Club and National Headliner Awards.
Keating has written four national columns: “Numbers” and “The Biz” for ESPN the Magazine (1999-2019), “The New Retirement” for Smart Money (2006-2010) and “The Advocate” for Money (1999-2000). He was the senior writer for politics at George during the 2000 presidential campaign.
Keating lives in Montclair, New Jersey, with his wife Karen, their daughters Ellie and Samantha, and their dog, Otis.
Gross domestic product, the broadest measure of goods and services produced across the economy, decreased at an annual rate of 32.9 percent in the second quarter of 2020, followed by a surged of 33.1 percent in the third quarter, in part due to earlier rounds of fiscal stimulus when businesses were offered Economic Injury Disaster Loans and forgivable Paycheck Protection Program loans, and individuals received direct payments and extended unemployment benefits.
Economic experts believe the current surge is not enough to stop continued losses incurred by various segments of economy.
“While the strong bounce back in activity from the initial devastation of COVID-19 was heartening, the recovery thus far has been highly uneven, and the path ahead is highly uncertain,” said Federal Reserve Governor Lael Brainard in a speech last month at the Society of Professional Economists annual online conference.
This highly uneven and uncertain bounce indicates the prospect of a K-shaped recovery, where some sectors continue to recover, while others see a steady decline.
The new stimulus package must focus on the sectors facing difficulties ahead to avoid colossal damage and massive layoffs.
According to the U.S. Chamber of Commerce, approximately 4 million small businesses — 13 percent of America’s 31 million smallest employers — have now exhausted their PPP loans, and many face permanent closure without further assistance.
According to the National Restaurant Association, the restaurant industry will lose $240 billion. U.S airlines may be forced to furlough 75,000 pilots, flight attendants, mechanics and other workers by the end of 2020 if Congress doesn’t act.
States and municipalities are now on verge of extreme shortfalls due to declines in tax revenues and rises in additional costs. Local governments that fund and operate public school systems will need more funding. “The average school district will face $1.8 million, or $485 per student, in additional costs for disinfectants, personal protective equipment and other preparations to bring students into classrooms this year,” according to the Association of School Business Officials.
The Federal Reserve’s Survey of Consumer Finances indicates that cash-strained households will continue to suffer as a result of continued unemployment and reduced working hours. The CARES Act did support these households either through direct payments or enhanced unemployment benefits this year, but the financial security of these households will depend on whether unemployment benefits will be extended or supplemented next year.
Therefore, it is imperative for Congress to ensure that the recovery reaches those who have been disproportionately affected. A targeted fiscal support can turn a K-shaped recovery into a broad-based, inclusive recovery to eliminate shortfalls in employment and provide a better outcome overall.
