On election night, Democratic campaign consultants may have been wondering, “Where did all these voters come from?” But unless the next Congress sets a legislative course over the next few months, Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi may soon be wondering, “Where did all the voters go?”
The incoming Biden administration will need to navigate an extremely rough economic path ahead. Congress has struggled to reach an agreement for another round of stimulus to provide emergency relief for families and businesses. Now they must act before the “dark winter” ahead further deteriorates the economic recovery.
Tobias Salinger is Financial Planning's chief correspondent, with nearly a decade of experience covering wealth management, regulation and the business of financial advice. He specializes in investigations and enterprise reporting on advisory firm strategy, regulation, conflicts of interest, and diversity and equality across the industry.
Tobias has been recognized for his investigations and original reporting on the conflicts of interest that affect wealth management firms, as well as systemic racism in finance, winning more than a dozen honors, including the Jesse H. Neal, Azbees, SABEW Best in Business and Folio Eddie awards.
His award-winning coverage includes:
- Building Black Wealth in St. Louis
- The wealth management industry's $1T conflict of interest
- A black eye for FINRA? Brokers with checkered histories cast doubt on enforcement efforts
- Access denied: Systemic racism in financial services
- From sealed transcripts, the inside saga of LPL Financial's largest termination ever
Before Financial Planning, Tobias reported for the New York Daily News, Commercial Observer and City Limits. He holds a master's degree from the Craig Newmark Graduate School of Journalism at the City University of New York (2013) and is an alumnus of the Fellowship at Auschwitz for the Study of Professional Ethics, an international program focused on how the lessons of history inform professional ethics today in journalism and many other fields.
Born and raised in Kansas City, Missouri, now based in Chicago, Tobias is an avid softball player, a novice bird watcher and reader of contemporary fiction.
Connect with Tobias on LinkedIn or reach him at: tobias.salinger@arizent.com.
Teresa Carroll is the vice president of PEO (Professional Employer Organization) at Paychex and the president of Oasis, by Paychex HR.
Matt Harmon has served as the senior vice president of claims for The MEMIC Group since 2015. In this role, he is responsible for all claim-related activities for MEMIC across 40+ jurisdictions. Matt brings more than 25 years of workers’ compensation claims experience to his position. Matt began his insurance career in 1994 after graduating from the University of Maine with a degree in Business Administration. Active in his community, Matt currently serves on the board of directors for the American Red Cross of Southern Maine and Boots2Roots. He is a 2019 graduate of Maine Development Foundation’s Leadership Maine program, and is a current MBA candidate at the University of Maine.
Gross domestic product, the broadest measure of goods and services produced across the economy, decreased at an annual rate of 32.9 percent in the second quarter of 2020, followed by a surged of 33.1 percent in the third quarter, in part due to earlier rounds of fiscal stimulus when businesses were offered Economic Injury Disaster Loans and forgivable Paycheck Protection Program loans, and individuals received direct payments and extended unemployment benefits.
Economic experts believe the current surge is not enough to stop continued losses incurred by various segments of economy.
“While the strong bounce back in activity from the initial devastation of COVID-19 was heartening, the recovery thus far has been highly uneven, and the path ahead is highly uncertain,” said Federal Reserve Governor Lael Brainard in a speech last month at the Society of Professional Economists annual online conference.
This highly uneven and uncertain bounce indicates the prospect of a K-shaped recovery, where some sectors continue to recover, while others see a steady decline.
The new stimulus package must focus on the sectors facing difficulties ahead to avoid colossal damage and massive layoffs.
According to the U.S. Chamber of Commerce, approximately 4 million small businesses — 13 percent of America’s 31 million smallest employers — have now exhausted their PPP loans, and many face permanent closure without further assistance.
According to the National Restaurant Association, the restaurant industry will lose $240 billion. U.S airlines may be forced to furlough 75,000 pilots, flight attendants, mechanics and other workers by the end of 2020 if Congress doesn’t act.
States and municipalities are now on verge of extreme shortfalls due to declines in tax revenues and rises in additional costs. Local governments that fund and operate public school systems will need more funding. “The average school district will face $1.8 million, or $485 per student, in additional costs for disinfectants, personal protective equipment and other preparations to bring students into classrooms this year,” according to the Association of School Business Officials.
The Federal Reserve’s Survey of Consumer Finances indicates that cash-strained households will continue to suffer as a result of continued unemployment and reduced working hours. The CARES Act did support these households either through direct payments or enhanced unemployment benefits this year, but the financial security of these households will depend on whether unemployment benefits will be extended or supplemented next year.
Therefore, it is imperative for Congress to ensure that the recovery reaches those who have been disproportionately affected. A targeted fiscal support can turn a K-shaped recovery into a broad-based, inclusive recovery to eliminate shortfalls in employment and provide a better outcome overall.
