On election night, Democratic campaign consultants may have been wondering, “Where did all these voters come from?” But unless the next Congress sets a legislative course over the next few months, Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi may soon be wondering, “Where did all the voters go?”
The incoming Biden administration will need to navigate an extremely rough economic path ahead. Congress has struggled to reach an agreement for another round of stimulus to provide emergency relief for families and businesses. Now they must act before the “dark winter” ahead further deteriorates the economic recovery.
Michael Liersch is head of Advice and Planning for Wealth and Investment Management, which is responsible for developing and propagating research-based methods to help advisors and clients most productively collaborate around their money decisions. Prior to joining Wells Fargo, Michael worked at JPMorgan Chase where he served as managing director and global head of Wealth Planning and Advice. Prior to his role at JPMorgan Chase, he served as head of Behavioral Finance and Goals-based Consulting at Bank of America-Merrill Lynch, and as head of Behavioral Finance at Barclays Wealth, Americas. He was also a faculty member at New York University, where he taught management and organizational analysis.
Indy Guha is chief marketing officer at Signifyd.
Jeffery is a senior analyst serving financial services digital strategy professionals, helping them evaluate the implications of digital innovation on their businesses. His research focuses on the intersection of secular trends and technological advancements, such as the internet of things (IoT) and sensors, artificial intelligence and machine learning, and natural language processing, as these advancements are changing the way financial services firms do business and interact with their customers.
Jeffery has more than 10 years of experience working with C-suite executives and senior business leaders to shape business strategy at insurance clients. Prior to joining Forrester, he was an associate director at Ernst & Young (EY), where he led EY’s Americas’ insurance sector market research and insights program, working closely with senior engagement partners to drive growth at key global and US accounts. Before EY, Jeffery was a senior manager at PriceWaterhouseCoopers (PwC), where he delivered insurance industry and company research, analysis, and thought leadership support to client service partners and their engagement teams during consulting pursuits and engagements. Prior to PwC, Jeffery was employed for five years as an equity analyst at global and regional investment banks, covering the retail and consumer and automotive aftermarket industries.
Jeffery holds an MBA from the Darden School at the University of Virginia in Charlottesville, Virginia. He received his bachelor’s degree in agribusiness from Florida A&M University in Tallahassee, Florida.
Gross domestic product, the broadest measure of goods and services produced across the economy, decreased at an annual rate of 32.9 percent in the second quarter of 2020, followed by a surged of 33.1 percent in the third quarter, in part due to earlier rounds of fiscal stimulus when businesses were offered Economic Injury Disaster Loans and forgivable Paycheck Protection Program loans, and individuals received direct payments and extended unemployment benefits.
Economic experts believe the current surge is not enough to stop continued losses incurred by various segments of economy.
“While the strong bounce back in activity from the initial devastation of COVID-19 was heartening, the recovery thus far has been highly uneven, and the path ahead is highly uncertain,” said Federal Reserve Governor Lael Brainard in a speech last month at the Society of Professional Economists annual online conference.
This highly uneven and uncertain bounce indicates the prospect of a K-shaped recovery, where some sectors continue to recover, while others see a steady decline.
The new stimulus package must focus on the sectors facing difficulties ahead to avoid colossal damage and massive layoffs.
According to the U.S. Chamber of Commerce, approximately 4 million small businesses — 13 percent of America’s 31 million smallest employers — have now exhausted their PPP loans, and many face permanent closure without further assistance.
According to the National Restaurant Association, the restaurant industry will lose $240 billion. U.S airlines may be forced to furlough 75,000 pilots, flight attendants, mechanics and other workers by the end of 2020 if Congress doesn’t act.
States and municipalities are now on verge of extreme shortfalls due to declines in tax revenues and rises in additional costs. Local governments that fund and operate public school systems will need more funding. “The average school district will face $1.8 million, or $485 per student, in additional costs for disinfectants, personal protective equipment and other preparations to bring students into classrooms this year,” according to the Association of School Business Officials.
The Federal Reserve’s Survey of Consumer Finances indicates that cash-strained households will continue to suffer as a result of continued unemployment and reduced working hours. The CARES Act did support these households either through direct payments or enhanced unemployment benefits this year, but the financial security of these households will depend on whether unemployment benefits will be extended or supplemented next year.
Therefore, it is imperative for Congress to ensure that the recovery reaches those who have been disproportionately affected. A targeted fiscal support can turn a K-shaped recovery into a broad-based, inclusive recovery to eliminate shortfalls in employment and provide a better outcome overall.
