On election night, Democratic campaign consultants may have been wondering, “Where did all these voters come from?” But unless the next Congress sets a legislative course over the next few months, Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi may soon be wondering, “Where did all the voters go?”
The incoming Biden administration will need to navigate an extremely rough economic path ahead. Congress has struggled to reach an agreement for another round of stimulus to provide emergency relief for families and businesses. Now they must act before the “dark winter” ahead further deteriorates the economic recovery.
David P. Meyer is the current president of PIABA and the managing principal of the law firm MeyerWilson.
As Vice President, Data Science in RGA Reinsurance Company's Global Research and Data Analytics department, Jeff Heaton works primarily with modeling risk for underwriting systems using electronic health records. In this role, Jeff's IT background allows him to bridge the gap between complex data science problems and proven software development. Jeff joined RGA in 2001 as a member of the Information Technology (IT) group to design and implement systems for retrocession administration and premium calculation, and transitioned to a data science role in 2013. He is a frequent speaker and author for organizations such as the Society of Actuaries (SOA), the Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers (IEEE), and for academic journals. Jeff has authored several books on artificial intelligence, and teaches a graduate course at Washington University in St. Louis on this subject. Jeff is a senior member of the IEEE and a Fellow of the Life Management Institute (FLMI). He holds a Master of Information Management (MIM) degree from Washington University in St. Louis and a Ph.D. in computer science from Nova Southeastern University.
Jaqui Wassenaar is Head of Digital Distribution, Ventures and Partnerships for RGA. Based in Amsterdam, Jaqui is responsible for establishing innovative distribution pathways that unlock new markets and growth for RGA clients and partners. Educated and trained as an actuary, Jaqui has served in senior marketing and strategic roles at RGA since 2008, focusing on Europe, Japan, and South Africa.
Gross domestic product, the broadest measure of goods and services produced across the economy, decreased at an annual rate of 32.9 percent in the second quarter of 2020, followed by a surged of 33.1 percent in the third quarter, in part due to earlier rounds of fiscal stimulus when businesses were offered Economic Injury Disaster Loans and forgivable Paycheck Protection Program loans, and individuals received direct payments and extended unemployment benefits.
Economic experts believe the current surge is not enough to stop continued losses incurred by various segments of economy.
“While the strong bounce back in activity from the initial devastation of COVID-19 was heartening, the recovery thus far has been highly uneven, and the path ahead is highly uncertain,” said Federal Reserve Governor Lael Brainard in a speech last month at the Society of Professional Economists annual online conference.
This highly uneven and uncertain bounce indicates the prospect of a K-shaped recovery, where some sectors continue to recover, while others see a steady decline.
The new stimulus package must focus on the sectors facing difficulties ahead to avoid colossal damage and massive layoffs.
According to the U.S. Chamber of Commerce, approximately 4 million small businesses — 13 percent of America’s 31 million smallest employers — have now exhausted their PPP loans, and many face permanent closure without further assistance.
According to the National Restaurant Association, the restaurant industry will lose $240 billion. U.S airlines may be forced to furlough 75,000 pilots, flight attendants, mechanics and other workers by the end of 2020 if Congress doesn’t act.
States and municipalities are now on verge of extreme shortfalls due to declines in tax revenues and rises in additional costs. Local governments that fund and operate public school systems will need more funding. “The average school district will face $1.8 million, or $485 per student, in additional costs for disinfectants, personal protective equipment and other preparations to bring students into classrooms this year,” according to the Association of School Business Officials.
The Federal Reserve’s Survey of Consumer Finances indicates that cash-strained households will continue to suffer as a result of continued unemployment and reduced working hours. The CARES Act did support these households either through direct payments or enhanced unemployment benefits this year, but the financial security of these households will depend on whether unemployment benefits will be extended or supplemented next year.
Therefore, it is imperative for Congress to ensure that the recovery reaches those who have been disproportionately affected. A targeted fiscal support can turn a K-shaped recovery into a broad-based, inclusive recovery to eliminate shortfalls in employment and provide a better outcome overall.
