The next stimulus should aim for a broad-based, inclusive recovery

Economic experts believe the current surge is not enough to stop continued losses incurred by various segments of economy.

On election night, Democratic campaign consultants may have been wondering, “Where did all these voters come from?” But unless the next Congress sets a legislative course over the next few months, Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi may soon be wondering, “Where did all the voters go?”

The incoming Biden administration will need to navigate an extremely rough economic path ahead. Congress has struggled to reach an agreement for another round of stimulus to provide emergency relief for families and businesses. Now they must act before the “dark winter” ahead further deteriorates the economic recovery.

CORONAVIRUS IMPACT: ADDITIONAL COVERAGE
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Evan Ishida is a consultant with Winding River Consulting, serving the professional services industry in the areas of leadership, culture, and agile planning. He is also a partner at Thrive at Work LLC.

Kevin Wack
July 10, 2020 12:15 PM

A subprime-related settlement between the government and Deutsche Bank provided meaningful benefits to some U.S. consumers in need, according to a new report. But the author acknowledged that those gains could prove illusory for some consumers given the coronavirus crisis.

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Cathy Lanning serves as Senior Vice President for the Property & Casualty Marketing organization. In this role, she is responsible for the development and execution of integrated marketing plans for personal and commercial insurance products. Together with her team, she builds the brand and the Nationwide business leveraging data-driven direct marketing, partnerships, digital media, social media, cooperative agency marketing and lead generation strategies.

Most recently, Cathy led Strategic Partnerships where she established a large partnership portfolio with a data driven relationship-based selling approach. Together with partners such as alumni associations, cause organizations and sports organizations, Nationwide was able to understand the exact needs of a household and bring the right solutions at the right time to meet their protection needs. Under her leadership, the business unit grew by over 100% in five years.

Cathy joined Nationwide in 2007 as part of the leadership team that launched Nationwide Bank. Throughout her tenure at the company, she has held roles that require innovation, vision and team building. This includes establishing new digital marketing tools for agents, launching new products in the market, and establishing the Marketing Analytics organization. The Marketing Analytics organization delivered the first-generation marketing mix models, comprehensive digital analytics, and forecasting models, all of which helped Nationwide understand marketing effectiveness across channels and identified investment optimization pathways. The insights served the business lines across the company and opened new horizons for efficient growth and retention.

She has broad experience in brand management, analytics, partnership development, direct marketing, distribution marketing, innovation, product development and strategic planning. Prior to joining Nationwide, Cathy was the Brand Manager at The Scotts Company and Product Manager at WorldCom focused on Virtual Private Networks.

Cathy is a proud Ohio State University alumnus, holding a Bachelor of Science in Psychology, a Bachelor of Science in Business Administration (Marketing) and Masters in Business Administration. She is also a graduate from the Northwestern Kellogg Senior Women in Leadership program.

Outside of work, Cathy is a passionate advocate for education and community learning programs. To live this mission, Cathy serves on the board of The Ohio State University Alumni Association, The Girl Scouts of Ohio’s Heartland and The Wellington School.

Gross domestic product, the broadest measure of goods and services produced across the economy, decreased at an annual rate of 32.9 percent in the second quarter of 2020, followed by a surged of 33.1 percent in the third quarter, in part due to earlier rounds of fiscal stimulus when businesses were offered Economic Injury Disaster Loans and forgivable Paycheck Protection Program loans, and individuals received direct payments and extended unemployment benefits.

Economic experts believe the current surge is not enough to stop continued losses incurred by various segments of economy.

“While the strong bounce back in activity from the initial devastation of COVID-19 was heartening, the recovery thus far has been highly uneven, and the path ahead is highly uncertain,” said Federal Reserve Governor Lael Brainard in a speech last month at the Society of Professional Economists annual online conference.

This highly uneven and uncertain bounce indicates the prospect of a K-shaped recovery, where some sectors continue to recover, while others see a steady decline.

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The new stimulus package must focus on the sectors facing difficulties ahead to avoid colossal damage and massive layoffs.

According to the U.S. Chamber of Commerce, approximately 4 million small businesses — 13 percent of America’s 31 million smallest employers — have now exhausted their PPP loans, and many face permanent closure without further assistance.

According to the National Restaurant Association, the restaurant industry will lose $240 billion. U.S airlines may be forced to furlough 75,000 pilots, flight attendants, mechanics and other workers by the end of 2020 if Congress doesn’t act.

States and municipalities are now on verge of extreme shortfalls due to declines in tax revenues and rises in additional costs. Local governments that fund and operate public school systems will need more funding. “The average school district will face $1.8 million, or $485 per student, in additional costs for disinfectants, personal protective equipment and other preparations to bring students into classrooms this year,” according to the Association of School Business Officials.

The Federal Reserve’s Survey of Consumer Finances indicates that cash-strained households will continue to suffer as a result of continued unemployment and reduced working hours. The CARES Act did support these households either through direct payments or enhanced unemployment benefits this year, but the financial security of these households will depend on whether unemployment benefits will be extended or supplemented next year.

Therefore, it is imperative for Congress to ensure that the recovery reaches those who have been disproportionately affected. A targeted fiscal support can turn a K-shaped recovery into a broad-based, inclusive recovery to eliminate shortfalls in employment and provide a better outcome overall.

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