On election night, Democratic campaign consultants may have been wondering, “Where did all these voters come from?” But unless the next Congress sets a legislative course over the next few months, Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi may soon be wondering, “Where did all the voters go?”
The incoming Biden administration will need to navigate an extremely rough economic path ahead. Congress has struggled to reach an agreement for another round of stimulus to provide emergency relief for families and businesses. Now they must act before the “dark winter” ahead further deteriorates the economic recovery.
The meeting was the last in chairman Russell Golden’s term.
Paul Winghart, Market Economist, Founder & Chief Knowledge Officer, Wing-O-Metrics LLC.
Paul produces, distributes and charges for subscriptions for original economic commentary primarily for professional financial advisors.
Mr. Winghart is the author of ConsterNation!: The Economics Behind The Angst which examines the long-term economic fundamental that is holding the economy back from realizing enough of its potential, thereby causing all economic angst.
Since 2014, Paul has been an Adjunct Instructor of Business & Economics at Bethel University, North Central University and is currently teaching at the University of Northwestern -Saint Paul.
From 1998 to founding Wing-O-Metrics LLC, Paul was Vice President – Market Economist & Senior Fixed Income Strategist for RBC Wealth Management where he discerned and accurately prognosticated trends in U.S. interest rates. He also researched and interpreted evolutions in credit ratings to gain an understanding and appreciation of their implications on specific fixed income securities.
He has been published the Municipal Finance Journal Winter 2010 & Bloomberg News 2012. He was also nominated for selection to Financial Advisor / Private Wealth Magazine’s annual Research Manager / Due Diligence all-star team in 2011 & 2012.
Paul holds a Bachelor’s degree in Economics from the University of Minnesota and an MBA in Finance from Bethel University.
Gross domestic product, the broadest measure of goods and services produced across the economy, decreased at an annual rate of 32.9 percent in the second quarter of 2020, followed by a surged of 33.1 percent in the third quarter, in part due to earlier rounds of fiscal stimulus when businesses were offered Economic Injury Disaster Loans and forgivable Paycheck Protection Program loans, and individuals received direct payments and extended unemployment benefits.
Economic experts believe the current surge is not enough to stop continued losses incurred by various segments of economy.
“While the strong bounce back in activity from the initial devastation of COVID-19 was heartening, the recovery thus far has been highly uneven, and the path ahead is highly uncertain,” said Federal Reserve Governor Lael Brainard in a speech last month at the Society of Professional Economists annual online conference.
This highly uneven and uncertain bounce indicates the prospect of a K-shaped recovery, where some sectors continue to recover, while others see a steady decline.
The new stimulus package must focus on the sectors facing difficulties ahead to avoid colossal damage and massive layoffs.
According to the U.S. Chamber of Commerce, approximately 4 million small businesses — 13 percent of America’s 31 million smallest employers — have now exhausted their PPP loans, and many face permanent closure without further assistance.
According to the National Restaurant Association, the restaurant industry will lose $240 billion. U.S airlines may be forced to furlough 75,000 pilots, flight attendants, mechanics and other workers by the end of 2020 if Congress doesn’t act.
States and municipalities are now on verge of extreme shortfalls due to declines in tax revenues and rises in additional costs. Local governments that fund and operate public school systems will need more funding. “The average school district will face $1.8 million, or $485 per student, in additional costs for disinfectants, personal protective equipment and other preparations to bring students into classrooms this year,” according to the Association of School Business Officials.
The Federal Reserve’s Survey of Consumer Finances indicates that cash-strained households will continue to suffer as a result of continued unemployment and reduced working hours. The CARES Act did support these households either through direct payments or enhanced unemployment benefits this year, but the financial security of these households will depend on whether unemployment benefits will be extended or supplemented next year.
Therefore, it is imperative for Congress to ensure that the recovery reaches those who have been disproportionately affected. A targeted fiscal support can turn a K-shaped recovery into a broad-based, inclusive recovery to eliminate shortfalls in employment and provide a better outcome overall.
