The next stimulus should aim for a broad-based, inclusive recovery

Economic experts believe the current surge is not enough to stop continued losses incurred by various segments of economy.

On election night, Democratic campaign consultants may have been wondering, “Where did all these voters come from?” But unless the next Congress sets a legislative course over the next few months, Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi may soon be wondering, “Where did all the voters go?”

The incoming Biden administration will need to navigate an extremely rough economic path ahead. Congress has struggled to reach an agreement for another round of stimulus to provide emergency relief for families and businesses. Now they must act before the “dark winter” ahead further deteriorates the economic recovery.

CORONAVIRUS IMPACT: ADDITIONAL COVERAGE
Mastercard card
Michael Moeser
April 3, 2020 12:09 PM

Mastercard has increased the contactless payment limit to CA$250 across Canada to provide consumers with a safer way to pay during the coronavirus pandemic.

1 Min Read
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Bonnie Sinnock is National Mortgage News' Capital Markets Editor at Arizent and has worked for NMN and affiliated publications since 1995. Her previous roles have included assisting in the coordination of origination coverage, technology reporting and chronicling cross-border issues.

Bonnie currently edits and writes about mortgage capital markets topics that include servicing, acquisitions, industry funding sources, securitization and other secondary market sales. Secondary market topics covered include two government-sponsored enterprise loan buyers that the U.S. has been considering spinning off part of in a new  and potentially groundbreaking initial public offering.

She also has contributed articles to multiple award-winning Arizent series, including:

  • Election Coverage (Finalist, Neal Awards 2025), for her 2024 reporting on the likelihood Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac reform in the second Trump administration
  • Online Single-Topic Coverage by a Team (American Society of Business Editors, Regional Bronze 2023), for participating in group reporting about industry layoffs.
  • Online Breaking News Coverage (Regional Bronze, Azbees 2021) for contributing to a package of stories on about the initial impact of the pandemic on the mortgage market
  • Best News Coverage (Neals 2016) for one of the articles in a package delving into multiple aspects of the transformative TILA/RESPA Integrated Disclosure rule 

Other journalistic accomplishments and designations include:

  • New York Financial Writers Association member
  • Reporter for the NonProfit Times, the Courier News, and the Los Angeles Independent
  • Published articles in the Los Angeles Times and the Saginaw News
  • Bachelor of Science in Journalism degree from Northwestern University

Twitter: @bcynic

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By Mark Niquette and Michael Sasso
April 3, 2020 11:01 AM

The Trump administration’s $349 billion small-business rescue kicked off Friday surrounded by concerns about its ability to handle an expected flood of applications and deliver enough aid to mom-and-pop firms hit hardest by the coronavirus pandemic.

6 Min Read

Gross domestic product, the broadest measure of goods and services produced across the economy, decreased at an annual rate of 32.9 percent in the second quarter of 2020, followed by a surged of 33.1 percent in the third quarter, in part due to earlier rounds of fiscal stimulus when businesses were offered Economic Injury Disaster Loans and forgivable Paycheck Protection Program loans, and individuals received direct payments and extended unemployment benefits.

Economic experts believe the current surge is not enough to stop continued losses incurred by various segments of economy.

“While the strong bounce back in activity from the initial devastation of COVID-19 was heartening, the recovery thus far has been highly uneven, and the path ahead is highly uncertain,” said Federal Reserve Governor Lael Brainard in a speech last month at the Society of Professional Economists annual online conference.

This highly uneven and uncertain bounce indicates the prospect of a K-shaped recovery, where some sectors continue to recover, while others see a steady decline.

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The new stimulus package must focus on the sectors facing difficulties ahead to avoid colossal damage and massive layoffs.

According to the U.S. Chamber of Commerce, approximately 4 million small businesses — 13 percent of America’s 31 million smallest employers — have now exhausted their PPP loans, and many face permanent closure without further assistance.

According to the National Restaurant Association, the restaurant industry will lose $240 billion. U.S airlines may be forced to furlough 75,000 pilots, flight attendants, mechanics and other workers by the end of 2020 if Congress doesn’t act.

States and municipalities are now on verge of extreme shortfalls due to declines in tax revenues and rises in additional costs. Local governments that fund and operate public school systems will need more funding. “The average school district will face $1.8 million, or $485 per student, in additional costs for disinfectants, personal protective equipment and other preparations to bring students into classrooms this year,” according to the Association of School Business Officials.

The Federal Reserve’s Survey of Consumer Finances indicates that cash-strained households will continue to suffer as a result of continued unemployment and reduced working hours. The CARES Act did support these households either through direct payments or enhanced unemployment benefits this year, but the financial security of these households will depend on whether unemployment benefits will be extended or supplemented next year.

Therefore, it is imperative for Congress to ensure that the recovery reaches those who have been disproportionately affected. A targeted fiscal support can turn a K-shaped recovery into a broad-based, inclusive recovery to eliminate shortfalls in employment and provide a better outcome overall.

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