On election night, Democratic campaign consultants may have been wondering, “Where did all these voters come from?” But unless the next Congress sets a legislative course over the next few months, Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi may soon be wondering, “Where did all the voters go?”
The incoming Biden administration will need to navigate an extremely rough economic path ahead. Congress has struggled to reach an agreement for another round of stimulus to provide emergency relief for families and businesses. Now they must act before the “dark winter” ahead further deteriorates the economic recovery.
Tristan Markwell is program manager for data science and advanced analytics for Providence St Joseph Health.
Doug Duncan is the chief economist at Fannie Mae.
Allan Koltin, CPA, CGMA, is the CEO of Koltin Consulting Group, a Chicago-based consulting firm that specializes in working with professional and financial services firms in the areas of practice growth, practice management, human capital, and mergers and acquisitions. A nationally recognized speaker and industry analyst, Allan has appeared on the CNN, WGN and Fox Television networks and has been quoted frequently in such media as the Wall Street Journal, New York Times, Washington Post, Chicago Tribune, Los Angeles Times, USA Today and New York Post, as well as Bloomberg News, BBC World Service, Business Week, Forbes and Reuters. He has also spoken nationally and internationally at hundreds of conferences including those held by the AICPA, international CPA associations and state CPA societies.For twelve consecutive years, Allan has been named by Accounting Today as one of the Top 100 Most Influential People in the accounting profession. Koltin was also voted one of the 10 Most Recommended Consultants, for the seventh straight year, in the “Annual Survey of Firms” conducted by INSIDE Public Accounting. In 2012, Allan was named by CPA Practice Advisor as one of the Top 25 Thought Leaders in the profession. He was one of the first inducted into the Accounting Marketing Hall of Fame by the Association for Accounting Marketing (AAM). He has also been a recipient of the NACVA Instructor of the Year Award and winner of the Journal of Accountancy Literacy Award. Previously he was recognized by the Illinois CPA Society with the Distinguished Service Award for outstanding service and commitment to the profession. Koltin is the author-editor of three books for professional services firms: CPA Firm Merger Strategies That Work, CPAs That Sell and the AICPA’s Marketing a Consulting Niche. He is a founding member of The Advisory Board, a think tank for the accounting profession, and has served on various advisory boards, including Outsource Partners International (OPI), the Association for Accounting Marketing (AAM), the National Association of Certified Valuation Analysts (NACVA) and H&R Block (HRB Business Services). Previously, Allan was the President and CEO of PDI, Global, Inc. which was the largest publisher of marketing newsletters for professional services firms. Allan originally sold PDI Global to H&R Block in 1998, buying it back in 2008, and then selling it again to Thomson Reuters in 2011. Prior to that, Allan was a Senior Partner in the Chicago-based accounting and consulting firm of FERS, where he served as the leader of the Investment Banking Group, as well as the Law Firm Consulting Group. At age 27, Allan had the distinction of being named the youngest partner in the history of the firm and was also a member of the firm’s Executive Committee. FERS was acquired by H&R Block in 1998. Allan attended both the University of Wisconsin – Madison and the University of Wisconsin – Milwaukee and received degrees in accounting and marketing. He lives in Chicago with his wife, Sharon, and his three children, Jack, Brian and Julia. His passion is facilitating retreats and providing coaching for firm leadership and partners. His specialties include strategy, governance, profitability, compensation, growth, human capital, and mergers and acquisitions.
Gross domestic product, the broadest measure of goods and services produced across the economy, decreased at an annual rate of 32.9 percent in the second quarter of 2020, followed by a surged of 33.1 percent in the third quarter, in part due to earlier rounds of fiscal stimulus when businesses were offered Economic Injury Disaster Loans and forgivable Paycheck Protection Program loans, and individuals received direct payments and extended unemployment benefits.
Economic experts believe the current surge is not enough to stop continued losses incurred by various segments of economy.
“While the strong bounce back in activity from the initial devastation of COVID-19 was heartening, the recovery thus far has been highly uneven, and the path ahead is highly uncertain,” said Federal Reserve Governor Lael Brainard in a speech last month at the Society of Professional Economists annual online conference.
This highly uneven and uncertain bounce indicates the prospect of a K-shaped recovery, where some sectors continue to recover, while others see a steady decline.
The new stimulus package must focus on the sectors facing difficulties ahead to avoid colossal damage and massive layoffs.
According to the U.S. Chamber of Commerce, approximately 4 million small businesses — 13 percent of America’s 31 million smallest employers — have now exhausted their PPP loans, and many face permanent closure without further assistance.
According to the National Restaurant Association, the restaurant industry will lose $240 billion. U.S airlines may be forced to furlough 75,000 pilots, flight attendants, mechanics and other workers by the end of 2020 if Congress doesn’t act.
States and municipalities are now on verge of extreme shortfalls due to declines in tax revenues and rises in additional costs. Local governments that fund and operate public school systems will need more funding. “The average school district will face $1.8 million, or $485 per student, in additional costs for disinfectants, personal protective equipment and other preparations to bring students into classrooms this year,” according to the Association of School Business Officials.
The Federal Reserve’s Survey of Consumer Finances indicates that cash-strained households will continue to suffer as a result of continued unemployment and reduced working hours. The CARES Act did support these households either through direct payments or enhanced unemployment benefits this year, but the financial security of these households will depend on whether unemployment benefits will be extended or supplemented next year.
Therefore, it is imperative for Congress to ensure that the recovery reaches those who have been disproportionately affected. A targeted fiscal support can turn a K-shaped recovery into a broad-based, inclusive recovery to eliminate shortfalls in employment and provide a better outcome overall.
